1. Belgrad nov. 2013 SEECOF-10 Forecasts for DJF Christian Viel Météo-France

2. 2 Outline Ocean analysis Ocean forecasts General Circulation forecasts Impacts (T, RR) Summary

3. 3 Oceanic analysis SST Oct. 2013 Ocean analysis From MERCATOR, reference GLORYS 1992-2009

4. 4 Ocean analysis AugustSeptemberOctober Equatorial Pacific Equatorial AtlanticEquatorial Indian Kelvin waves time

5. 5 Weak SST anomalies in equatorial regions : –Atlantic : ~neutral –Pacific : weak positive anomaly in the western part, becoming neutral in the eastern part (warming)  ENSO phase : neutral –Indian : west neutral, east positive  IOD still negative (but now ~0) Ocean analysis Niño3.4

6. 6 Outline Ocean analysis Ocean forecasts General Circulation forecasts Impacts (T, RR) Summary

7. 7 Ocean forecasts SST forecasts Météo France ECMWF

8. 8 Niño3.4 Ocean forecasts – Central Pacific

9. 9 Ocean forecasts - Atlantic Northern tropical Atlantic (TNA) :

10. 10 Tropics :  Pacific : weak positive anomaly around the Warm Pool; ENSO neutral  Indian : IOD ~0  Atlantic : warmer than normal conditions in Northern sub-tropics Ocean forecasts

11. 11 Ocean forecasts

12. 12 NAO- NAO+ Atlantic ridge Blocking SST Composites of November (standardized anomalies) vs winter regime occurrences in DJF (MF model) Lower Tercile Upper Tercile Lower Tercile (significance threshold 70 %) Previous oceanic conditions to winter weather regimes

13. 13 Regime et mean TT,RR in winter

14. 14 Outline Ocean analysis Ocean forecasts General Circulation forecasts Impacts (T, RR) Summary

15. 15 Tropical response and forcing - DJF Shaded areas : velocity potential anomalies (divergent circulation anomalies) green upward motion anomaly pink downward motion anomaly Isolines : stream function anomalies (rotational circulation anomalies) blue lines cyclonic (in NH) red lines anticyclonic (in NH) Upper troposphere circulation fields (200 hPa) + + + - - -

16. 16 Mid-Latitude Response - DJF

17. 17 Mid-Latitude Response - DJF

18. 18  Relatively good consistency in tropical response to SST forcing  But no trace of teleconnection from tropics to NH mid-latitude  limited predictability related to tropical forcing General Circulation forecasts - DJF

19. 19 Outline Ocean analysis Ocean forecasts General Circulation forecasts Impacts (T, RR) Summary

20. 20 Temperature probabilities : DJF Skill (1987-2001)

21. 21 Temperature probabilities : DJF Skill (1987-2001)

22. 22 Precipitation probabilities : DJF Skill (1987-2001) outer-quintile categories

23. 23 Precipitation probabilities : DJF Skill (1987-2001) outer-quintile categories

24. 24 Summary for DJF. - close to normal conditions in equatorial waveguides, despite of warming of SST anomalies over the central part of Equatorial Pacific  ENSO : neutral conditions - limited predictability over mid-latitudes (Europe) - some signal (for T) over the Mediterranean basin : slightly enhanced probabilities of warmer than normal conditions

25. 25 Temperature and rainfall scenarios for Europe : DJF Skill (1987-2001) T RR http://elaboration.seasonal.meteo.fr Not yet available

26. 26

27. 27 NAO- NAO+ Atlantic ridge Blocking SST Composites of November (standardized anomalies) vs winter regime occurrences in DJF (MF model) Lower Tercile Upper Tercile Lower Tercile (significance threshold 70 %) Previous oceanic conditions to winter weather regimes

28. 28 Regime et mean TT,RR in winter

29. 29 Les produits « génériques » Distribution (pdf) de l’ expérience de référence Limites des catégories Catégorie « en-dessous de la Normale » (33% fréquence) « forte » Anomalie Négative (16% fréquence) Catégorie « au-dessus de la Normale » (33% fréquence) « forte » Anomalie Positive (16% fréquence) - 1,0 * σ 1,0 * σ 0,43 * σ- 0,43 * σ Catégorie « Normale »