1. Climate Change as Seen from the Transportation Sector: Public Policy, Infrastructure Planning, Design Challenges and System Adaptation Michael D. Meyer, Ph.D., P.E. F.R. Dickerson Professor of Transportation Systems Director, Georgia Transportation Institute Georgia Institute of Technology

2. Transportation as Cause and Effect

3. CO 2 emissions = PopulationTransport intensity (e.g., VMT/capita) Energy Intensity (e.g., MJ/mile) Carbon Intensity (e.g. gCO 2 -eq/MJ) P  T  E  C

4. Transportation is ~28% of U.S. GHG Emissions– and Rising

6. Highway Vehicles (Passenger Cars and Trucks) Account for 79% of Transportation CO 2 Emissions (2006)

7. Climate scientists80% below 1990 by 2050 California, Montana, Florida80% below 1990 by 2050 Oregon75% below 1990 by 2050 Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Maine, Rhode Island 75-85% below 2001 by 2050 Colorado80% below 2005 by 2050 New Mexico75% below 2000 Climate Security Act (Lieberman- Warner) S.2191 Up to 66% below current levels by 2050 Global Warming Reduction Act (Kerry-Snowe) S.485 62% below 1990 by 2050 Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act (McCain-Lieberman) S.280 60% below 1990 by 2050 United Kingdom60% below 1990 by 2050

8. StateYearVehicle Low Carbon Fuels Smart Growth and Transit Other MN202515%35%25% NC202035%12%38%15% SC202014%55%29%1% CT202051%38%8%2% ME202053%25%21%1% MD202524%12%45%20% NY202059%11%27%4% PA202545%36%18%0% RI202046%10%31%14% VT202821%14%49%17% State Climate Plans – Transportation Elements Are All Over the Map

9. Three scenarios that achieve 60 – 80% reduction in LDV GHG emissions below 2005 by 2050

10. Baseline Scenario (+11% LDV GHG) Source: NCHRP, STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING THE IMPACTS OF SURFACE TRANSPORTATION ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: A SYNTHESIS OF POLICY RESEARCH AND STATE AND LOCAL MITIGATION STRATEGIES, March 2009

11. Scenario 1: Zero VMT Growth; + 50 mpgge for LDV Fleet; + 5% Operational Efficiency; (-60% LDV GHG) Source: NCHRP, STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING THE IMPACTS OF SURFACE TRANSPORTATION ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: A SYNTHESIS OF POLICY RESEARCH AND STATE AND LOCAL MITIGATION STRATEGIES, March 2009

12. Scenario 2: 1% Annual VMT Growth; + 75 mpgge LDV Fleet; + 10% Operational Efficiency (-63% LDV GHG) Source: NCHRP, STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING THE IMPACTS OF SURFACE TRANSPORTATION ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: A SYNTHESIS OF POLICY RESEARCH AND STATE AND LOCAL MITIGATION STRATEGIES, March 2009

13. Scenario 3 : 1% Annual VMT Growth; + 100 mpgge LDV Fleet; + 10% Operational Efficiency (-74% LDV GHG) Source: NCHRP, STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING THE IMPACTS OF SURFACE TRANSPORTATION ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: A SYNTHESIS OF POLICY RESEARCH AND STATE AND LOCAL MITIGATION STRATEGIES, March 2009

14. Five GHG Reduction “Legs” Transportation GHG reduction has 5 legs: 1.Vehicle efficiency 2.Low-carbon fuels 3.VMT (including land use) 4.Vehicle/system operations 5.Construction, maintenance, and agency operations Examples: Higher CAFÉ standards CA’s low carbon fuel std Higher density/mixed use Signalization, ITS, eco- driving Materials, maintenance practices

15. Vehicle/Fuel Improvements Will be the Dominant Source of GHG Reductions for LDVs 50% cut in GHG/mile is feasible from conventional technologies and biofuels by 2020-2030 Compare these GHG rates in U.S. and Europe: 380 grams/mile2009 in the U.S. 250 grams/mile 2016 under new Obama standard 256 grams/mile 2007 actual in the E.U. 209 grams/mile 2012 under E.U. regulation 153 grams/mile 2020 under E.U. regulation New technologies and fuels hold promise of much deeper reductions

16. Policy Mechanisms

17. Transportation as Cause and Effect

19. Extreme events Long-term environmental changes

24. What does the literature say?

25. Bridges and culverts (increased mean annual rainfall, increased intensity of rainfall events, sea level rise), Causeways and coastal roads (sea level rise and increased frequency and intensity of storm surges), Pavement surfaces (increased mean annual temperature), Surface drainage (increased intensity of rainfall events), and Hillside slope stability (increased mean annual rainfall and increased intensity of rainfall events). Seattle (Soo Hoo 2005)

26. Boston and New York City (Tufts University 2004; Suarez et al 2005) Particular concern about flooding (especially transit tunnels)

27. By 2100, temperatures will be approaching those of current design standards…design changes should be accommodated now (for long life infrastructure such as bridges) to ensure that facilities will be able to accommodate higher temperatures in the future. The impact of sea level rise is significant for some, but not all, parts of the region. Gulf Coast (Cambridge Systematics, 2006)

28. Highways in high risk areas should be redesigned to accommodate changes as part of a comprehensive urban redesign strategy. The most severe and pervasive impacts to highways will be the increase in the number of intense storms….the impacts from storm waves can be so severe that efforts to identify and protect the bridges should be a priority.

29. A study on streambed scour at bridge crossings in Alaska shows that the major effect of climate change is mainly on rivers in glacial systems. “The peak flows are not as high as from intense rainfall events, but the duration of the high flows is longer. This translates to increased sediment transport capability and scour at bridge crossings.” Permafrost (Conaway 2006)

30. A Typical Infrastructure Segment

31. 1.Subsurface conditions 2.Materials specifications 3.Cross sections/standard dimensions 4.Drainage and erosion 5.Structures 6.Location engineering Critical Components of Infrastructure Design

32. Transportation in the New Orleans region is vulnerable City below sea level Subsidence (9 mm/yr) Locally heavy rainfall (forced drainage uphill, downpours likely to increase) Deteriorating coastal defenses Limited evacuation potential Global Sea-level Rise (1-2 mm now…. expected to accelerate 2-5 fold) New Orleans

33. Construction activities Design highways, bridges, & roads to withstand flooding and not aggravate flooding Establish set backs for coastal transportation infrastructure to accommodate sea-level rise Design/modify port facilities to accommodate higher wave energy and storm surge

34. Climate-Change Phenomenon Change in Environmental Condition Design Implications

35. Climate-Change Phenomenon Change in Environmental Condition Design Implications Temperature change Rising maximum temperature; lower minimum temperature; wider temperature range; possible significant impact on permafrost Over the short term*, minimal impact on pavement or structural design; potential significant impact on road, bridge scour and culvert design in cold regions Over the long term, possible significant impact on pavement and structural design; need for new materials; better maintenance strategies

36. Climate-Change Phenomenon Change in Environmental Condition Design Implications Changing precipitation levels Worst case scenario, more precipitation; higher water tables; greater levels of flooding; higher moisture content in soils Over the short term, could affect pavement and drainage design; greater attention to foundation conditions; more probabilistic approaches to design floods; more targeted maintenance Over long term, definite impact on foundation design and design of drainage systems and culverts; design of pavement subgrade and materials impacts

37. Climate-Change Phenomenon Change in Environmental Condition Design Implications Wind loads Stronger wind speeds and thus loads on bridge structures; more turbulence Over the short term, design factors for design wind speed might change; wind tunnel testing will have to consider more turbulent wind conditions Over the long term, greater materials strength and design considerations for suspended and cable-stayed bridges

38. Climate-Change Phenomenon Change in Environmental Condition Design Implications Storm surges and greater wave height Larger and more frequent storm surges; more powerful wave action Over short term, design changes to bridge height in vulnerable areas; more probabilistic approach to predicting storm surges Over long term, design changes for bridge design, both superstructure and foundations; change in materials specifications; more protective strategies for critical components

40. Primary Climatic Changes Increase in average temperatures Increase in maximum temperatures Increase in winter rainfall Reduction in summer rainfall More extreme rainfall events Reduction in snowfall Increased wind speed for worst gales Sea level rise

41. Secondary Climatic Change Impacts Longer growing season Reduction in soil moisture Change in groundwater level Flooding Reduction in fog days in winter Reduction in icy days in winter Frequency of extreme storm surges

42. Options for the treatment of risks: Future-proofing of designs Retro-fit solutions Developing contingency plans Updating operating procedures Monitoring Research

43. “This prioritisation provides a basis for establishing a forward programme of work to analyse options and develop adaptation action plans. Key areas for attention include internal business management processes, to ensure sufficient resources are allocated to adaptation activities, network resilience, investment appraisal, and various specific aspects of the design and maintenance of road pavement, structures and drainage.”

44. Identify predominant climate change trends and factors for region Identify impact of these changes on local environmental conditions Identify vulnerabilities of highway system to these changing conditions Conduct risk appraisal of vulnerabilities and environmental changes Assess feasibility and cost effectiveness of adaptation strategies Asset AAsset BAsset C Asset X Identify affected highway agency functions Network Functions Identify trigger levels Identify critical assets in the network Change design standards Change operating strategies Change maintenance practices Change construction practices Etc. Climate Adaptation Planning

45. One of the most effective strategies for reducing the engineering risk associated with climate change is to avoid the potential of risk to begin with.

46. Other-than-Design Options?

47. Land use policies Zoning codes Comprehensive plans

48. Ability of current facilities and services to function Design and location of new transportation facilities and services Construction techniques Logistics Climate change could have dramatic impacts on the transportation sector

49. Most Certainly It Will Produce a Multitude of Policies, Regulations and Processes that Directly Affect Infrastructure Providers