1. Rijksinstituut voor Integraal Zoetwaterbeheer en Afvalwaterbehandeling (RIZA) 1 Prospective analysis & IEA for the water environment lessons learned in the Netherlands dr.ir. Frans H.M. van de Ven RIZA ir. Ton H.M. Bresser RIVM

2. RIZA & RIVM 2 Integrated Water Management IWM = management of groundwater + surface water quantity, quality and ecology taking into account the demands of society from a number of sectoral policy fields

3. RIZA & RIVM 3 Relevant sectoral policy fields internal and external integration water management environment economy technology spatial planning socio-cultural institutions finance

4. RIZA & RIVM 4 Integrated Water Management IWM = a decision making problem taking into account ecological health of (water)system stakeholders interests –economic –emotional steering options IWM IEA

5. RIZA & RIVM 5 Prospective analysis & IEA objective: to assist decision makers in their task to manage the water (air, soil, space,….) by assessing developments in –issues –DPSIR –stakeholder interests (economic, social, …) –regional differences –related sectoral policies –steering mechanisms

6. RIZA & RIVM 6 Developments in IEA in the NL early 90: policy analysis early 00: multiple methods end-user (decision maker) involvement stakeholder involvement

7. RIZA & RIVM 7 Aquatic Outlook: 4 methods to assess developments reality imagination

8. RIZA & RIVM 8 1. Scanning the policies Method: analyse policy documents from –spatial planning –environment –nature –agriculture –economy…. to find common problems, developments, strategy,...

9. RIZA & RIVM 9 Findings They hardly said anything about water ! (this has drastically changed in the recent years!) So (1): poor external integration of water management (2): change objective of IWM from protecting against flooding and pollution abatement to managing water in the interest of the people

10. RIZA & RIVM 10 2. Policy analysis work of experts scenarios complex models profound water-system- focussed limited interaction with stakeholders identification development & analysis selection

11. RIZA & RIVM 11 Emissies Hydrodynamica morfologie Water- kwaliteit Gebruiks - functies Ecologie Modelling instruments

12. RIZA & RIVM 12 4.8 6.33 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1980200020202040 kton fosfaat jaar voortzetting nivo 1993 HUIDIG BELEID 1985-lijn SYSTEEM bemesting op Nul-bemesting P- runoff and leaching in various scenarios

13. RIZA & RIVM 13 communaal landbouw overige lozingen op riool depositie Sources of direct N-emissions into NL regional water systems

14. RIZA & RIVM 14 New: Collaborative PA Open Planning Process Policy Analysis 1. Start-up 2. Problems 3. Solutions 4. Actions Interchange of information Problems Solutions

15. RIZA & RIVM 15 Participants collaborative PA Open Planning Process Policy Analysis: Professionals Non- Professionals Interchange of Information Professionals Including stakeholders

16. RIZA & RIVM 16 3. Trend analysis Method: interviews, deskwork, discussions using expert judgement and statistics in order to find relevant trends and trend breaches in the next 20-25 yrs.

17. RIZA & RIVM 17 Findings New agenda for IWM: water economics (extended CBA) emotional values (cultural, landscape Q) impact on spatial planning European dimension / river basin approach / Framework directive IWM learns to communicate

18. RIZA & RIVM 18 4. Future framing / backward mapping Method: Visionary people imagine the future (cf. Jules Verne) than step backward in time and see how to steer developments (stimulate or avoid)

19. RIZA & RIVM 19 Findings

20. RIZA & RIVM 20 Function of the 4 methods stimulate discussion with –decision makers –stakeholders to create negotiated (shared) knowledge and sense of urgency raising issues for the policy agenda knowledge agenda policy agenda show steering options (how and when)

21. RIZA & RIVM 21 Discussion no longer enough to make water system / water policy analysis decision makers agenda has changed: –safety first –appreciation of water –economic value of water –collaborative planning –impact on spatial/physical planning

22. RIZA & RIVM 22 Discussion IEA to (re)formulate & address this new agenda IEA to provide options, no optimal solutions IEA to answer steering questions hard to transfer information Objective: create joint learning process via discussions, games, workshops, … permanent dialogue with decision makers & stakeholders required

23. RIZA & RIVM 23 Discussion WFD IWM WFD = instrument; IEA = another instrument data requirement of WFD 2004 State & Outlook report avoid double work !