4 Vulnerability of Water Resources & Adaptation Driving forcesPressuresStatePotentialImpactsExposureClimate scenariosNatural variabilityPrecipitationSnow coverEvaporationSea level riseEtc.Water availabilitySoil moistureRiver flowWater temperatureSalt intrusionEtc.costs/benefits (health, assets, production, land, jobs, biodiversity, ecosystem services, etc.) from water stress, flooding, etc.SensitivityProductionConsumptionDemographyEtc.Land-useProcessesFlood defensesStorage capacityEtc.WithdrawalsLocation ecosystems, population, activity, assetsEtcAdaptation
5 Water and Adaptation Modelling ClimWatAdapt project (2010-2011)
6 ClimWatAdapt Scenarios Socio-economic and land use: SCENES.Main drivers (socio-economic, electricity production, technological changes, …)Climate: ENSEMBLESLong-term annual average bias-corrected temperature and precipitation data (baseline, 2025s and 2050s), 11 GCM-RCM combinations, SRES A1B scenarioChange in annual precipitation between 2050s and baseline
10 FP6 SCENES Scenario «Economy First» 2050 FP6 SCENES Scenario «Sustainability Eventually» 2050Example of ClimWatAdapt results: Summer Water Exploitation Index (excl cooling water)The main message from this bold exploratory scenario exercise is that despite strong improvements in water efficiency in all sectors, water stress would remain a problem in numerous EU catchments, including in central and western Europe. This pleads for a more integrated analysis of the potential of increasing water availability, water retention and water savings taking fully into account the uncertainties linked to economic developments in various sectors and climate change.Low stress (WEI < 20%)Medium stress (20% < WEI < 40%High stress (WEI > 40%)Source: DG Environment, ClimWatAdapt database, 2011
11 ClimWatAdapt policy recommendations: Knowledge GapAdditional research: focus uncertainty and adaptive capacity. Integration into CLIMATE-ADAPT and WISE.Economic analysis under WFD: forecasts about future water use and related investments)Embed EU and national forecast systems in CLIMATE-ADAPT.• Define and agree on EU wide set of vulnerability indicators to measure the success of implemented adaptation measures.MainstreamingEcosystem-based approach / transfer into all EU policies targeting land use changes (CAP, Energy, Transport)Climate proofing measures in 2nd RBMPsFunding priority to “green” or “soft” measures and multi-objectives measuresStart assessment of long-term radical measurestransboundary water management adaptation strategies.Support actions at EU level to foster the uptake and implementation of technical adaptation measures.
12 Knowledge Integration: ClimWatAdapt results integrated in the Clearinghouse
13 Current workModelling of the cost-effectiveness of measures in the context of the Blueprint to safeguard Europe’s watersNatural water retention measuresWater efficiency measuresPreparatory Action Climate of the Carpathian RegionLitterature review on the potential climate change effects on drinking water resources across the EU and the identification of priorities among different types of drinking water supplies
14 Natural Water Retention Measures Slow down or reduce the flow of water downstream, leading to a more natural flow regime within a catchment, alleviate the effect of droughts, and to prevent floods, desertification and salination by:improving soil’s water storage capacitylimiting soil erosionincreasing groundwater rechargeconserving water in natural systemsdecreasing flow velocity, controlling runoffreducing flood peaks
15 OutcomeReport on litterature review on costs, benefits and policy implication of measuresTo be circulated for commentsTo be integrated into WISE catalogue of measuresQuantitative modelling at EU level (JRC)First results to be presented at Green WeekIncluded into Blueprint Scenarios
16 JRC modelling Approach JRC modelling: Provide a first quantitative pan-European overview of the effects of ‘green’ measures on dischargeEncouraging Member States to further explore the use NWRM, foster communication between stakeholdersJRC modelling ApproachBuilding scenarios ofland useagricultural practicewater retention, etc.Multi -modelsLand use modelClimate modelsHydrological model, etc.Assessment of effectiveness of measures at EU level (flood risk prevention, low flows)
17 Water scarcity and droughts GAP analysis on water scarcity & droughtsIdentification of the extent of water scarcity & droughts in Europe and assessment of existing and potential selected measures for tackling water scarcity & droughts.Water efficiency in BuildingsLeakage reduction in water distribution networks5-8 pilot studies in water-scarce parts of Europe to analyse and quantify factors of relevance for leakages at a river basin level. Identification of best practices for reducing water-losses in the EU or other countries. Recommendations on policy options for water efficiency in distribution systems.Activities to halt desertification in Europe3-5 pilot projects on innovative technologies, techniques or practices in order to contribute to the exchanges of good practice and innovation at the local level for halting desertification in Europe.Water pricing in agricultureCase studies on water pricing policies for the agricultural sector in selected river basins. Recommendation on best practices.Water saving in agricultureClarification on the current situation of agricultural water use in Europe, and compilation of conclusions from a range of studies on possibilities for water saving in agriculture.17
18 Preparatory action — Climate of the Carpathian basin Objective approved by the European Parliament:2010 Budget allocation:Analysis of the vulnerability of water and ecosystems of the region to climate change impacts and other man-made pressuresIdentifying potential adaptation measures, focusing on adaptive water management and ecosystem-based approaches..BenefitsNational or Regional adaptation strategies in the Carpathian RegionDanube Climate Adaptation StrategyContribution to the forthcoming EU Information System (Clearinghouse) on Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation
19 Preparatory Action Climate of Carpathian Region (1/2) CARPIVIA projectTo gather information on vulnerability of environmental resources to climate change in the Carpathian region, and on that basis identify and assess potential adaptation measures, with a focus on ecosystem based approachesTo identify knowledge gaps to be filled in by additional field research or case studies (executed by a parallel project contract)To contribute to on-going national or regional adaptation strategies or related policy processes, and the EU Knowledge Base on Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation (a.o. EU Adaptation Clearinghouse)runs until 2013, complemented by the CarpathCC project started in 2012
20 Preparatory Action Climate of Carpathian Region (2/2) CarpathCC project: 6 in-depth studies for in-depth assessments of vulnerability of environmental resources and ecosystem-based adaptation measures:In-depth study on the key climate change threats and impacts on water resourcesIn-depth study on the impacts of climate change threats on ecosystemsIn-depth study on the impact of climate change on ecosystem based production systemsIn-depth study on adaptation measuresSupporting stakeholder interactionIntegral vulnerability assessments in focal areas
21 A Blueprint to safeguard Europe’s waters EG CC & Water21/5/2012
22 What is the Blueprint?The Blueprint to Safeguard Europe's Water Resources will present the policy response to the challenges presented in the State of Water Report,long-term aim: to ensure sufficient availability of good quality water for sustainable and equitable water use.Closely linked to EU 2020 Strategy and Resource Efficiency Roadmap.
23 Why a Blueprint?Improving the implementation of current EU water policyFostering the integration of water and other policiesWhen necessary, seeking the completion of the current policy framework
24 Synthesis of policy recommendations building on on-going assessments Impact Assessment« Fitness Check»EU waterpolicyinstrumentsOutlook of sustainability and vulnerability of EU water resourcesPolicyOptionsNov 2012BlueprintToSafeguardEU WatersReport on 2009River BasinManagement PlansReport on 2009River BasinManagement PlansReport on 2009River BasinManagementPlansReport on 2009River BasinManagement PlansReport on 2009River BasinManagement PlansReport on 2009River BasinManagement PlansReviewWater Scarcity& DroughtsStrategyReviewWater Scarcity& Droughts StrategyReviewWater Scarcity& Droughts StrategyReviewWater Scarcity& Droughts StrategyReviewWater Scarcity& Droughts StrategyClimate ChangeVulnerability& AdaptationClimate ChangeVulnerability& AdaptationClimate ChangeVulnerability& Adaptation
25 From Objectives to Policy Options Foster integration of water into sectoral policiesAchievementGood Ecological StatusIncrease the use of economic instrumentsAdressingWater StressAchieve a more efficient water governanceFoster integration of water into sectoral policies, by ensuring that impact of socio-economic activities and regulations on the state of water resources is fully taken on boardIncrease the use of economic instruments for a better allocation of resources and internalisation of external costs.Achieve a more efficient water governance and effective working relationships between institutions, and fully integrate water quality, quantity and hydromorphology issues in management actions.Improve knowledge and tools available to water managers[N1] and managers of all sectors dependent on water, enabling effective decision making and reducing administrative burden. [N1]Knowledge and tools also for framers, industries, tourist sector etc. are neededResilience toExtreme EventsImprove knowledge and tools
26 Unlocking Measures Focus on measures serving multiple benefits Unlocking barriers :Technical / InnovationKnowledge (costs, benefits and impacts of measures)Economic incentivesFinancial resourcesRegulations
28 Identifying specific problems to be solved through the Blueprint Level 3Level 1Level 1Level 2Level 2
29 Next Steps 15/3 – 7/6: 12-weeks public consultation on Policy Options Discussion options at 3rd EU Water Conference on MayDiscussion at Informal ENV Council 7-8 July18 July : Impact Assessment BoardNovember: Publication Blueprint
31 Expert Group Climate Change & Water Main objective: Discuss how Member States and others Institutions are going about implementing the WFD-CIS Guidance document No. 24 “RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT IN A CHANGING CLIMATE”Share experiences and best practiceLook at emerging issues (to be taken into account for the 2nd and 3rd RBMP).
32 Preliminary assessment River Basin Management Plans (RBMP) Most of the MS included significant information on climate change into the RBMP, however in a different level of detailClimate change issues have not influenced much the RBMP actions yetThere is an indication in some plans that climate check of measures has already been done or preparations for it are started for the next RBMP cycles