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Assessment of the EU - Rep. of Korea FTA

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Presentation on theme: "Assessment of the EU - Rep. of Korea FTA"— Presentation transcript:

1 Assessment of the EU - Rep. of Korea FTA
Dr Stephen Woolcock LSE, CEPS, Maastricht Uni. and Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Presentation for the European Parliament Hearing; 23rd June 2010

2 An EU lead on trade Forward movement when DDA remains stalled
Comprehensive agreement Extensive liberalisation of goods and services Breaks new ground on rules

3 Compatibility with WTO
Consistent with broadly accepted interpretation of GATT Art XXIV and GATS Art V Rules also compatible with WTO principles Some areas WTO-plus (e.g IPR esp. GIs) FTAs can reduce incentive for multilateral negotiations

4 Welfare effects research suggests order of magnitude
< 1% of GDP for Korea < 0.1% of GDP for EU order of magnitude Korea gains more because it’s a smaller economy with higher protection

5 Trade effects (EU export growth)
more EU sectors gain from trade than lose significant share of gains for services machinery, pharmaceuticals, chemicals and agri-foods also stand to gain overall export gains for EU of around Euro 33bn benefits depend on effective reduction and containment of Korean NTBs/regulatory barriers

6 Trade affects Korean export growth
overall export gains Euro 23 bn studies show concentration in automotive exports to a lesser extent in textiles and electronics but Korean FDI in EU contributing to a significant reduction in Korean exports not accounted for in the quantitative studies duty drawback equivalent to an export subsidy for Korea auto sector of around 1-1.5%

7 Provisions on NTBs and rules
TBT provisions break new ground sector arrangements; equivalence; Korean acceptance of int. standards; moderators Intellectual property rights effective enforcement of international conventions; but TRIPs plus on GI with registers for wines and spirits and agri-foods Competition: WTO plus; cooperation in enforcement and subsidies Procurement: GPA plus on coverage Dispute settlement faster remedies than available under the WTO

8 Sustainable development
provisions on labour standards breaks new ground for EU FTAs promote the application of core labour standards Korea has not yet ratified key core labour standards cooperation in promotion of multilateral environment agreements

9 Timing issues potential gains from early application
short term gains for sectors including automotive first mover advantages, especially for the service sector / mechanical engineering general competitive gains on market access KORUS not ratified Korea not yet concluded agreements with China, Japan and ASEAN early application would provide EU with a lead set precedent for other agreements

10 Summary balance seems favourable to the EU
all trade agreements entail adjustment costs these are modest compared to other adjustment pressures could be eased through provision of adjustment assistance export growth for EU will depend on effective implementation of provisions on NTBs and rules

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