1. Overview of European agriculture-water activities Peter Kristensen European Topic Centre on Water

2. Inventory of European activities During the last 15 years many European, regional and national activities have been undertaken in relation to agriculture and water/ nutrients. For example, national studies on assessment of diffuse pollution, nutrient balance, and R&D activities on catchment modelling of diffuse pollution. Structured overview of activities related to: Agriculture nutrient input/balances and calculated water quality Relationship between water quality and agricultural activities Modelling approaches and scenarios Draft technical report (10-15 p.) next month (circulated to experts for comments)

3. Structured overview of agri-water activities Scientific papers State of water reports Country overview 31 EEA countries - Relevant scientific papers - Grey reports - State of the environment reports (water chapters) Overview of activities related to: - Agriculture nutrient input/ balances and calculated water quality - Relationship between water quality and agricultural activities - Modelling approaches and scenarios

4. Many studies describe trends in nutrient input, nutrient surplus and in some cases these information are used to calculate nutrient leaching/run-off to groundwater and surface water. 1)nutrient balances on European scale; 2)attempts to spatialise nutrient balances to rivers basin scale 3)losses/leaching of nutrients Agriculture nutrient input/balances and calculated water quality

5. European nutrient balances EEA 2005: IRENA 18 Gross Nutrient Balances Eurostat 2000 Nutrient balances OECD 2001 & 2005 CAPRI 2003 (Used as impact indicator for evaluating the effect of the CAP reform) Soil surface balances Nitrogen balances National/ administrative level Standard coefficients N-surplus kg/ha agri Source: JRC Source: EEA/OECD N-surplus 1990 & 2000

6. Spatialise During the last years there have been activities to spatialise the calculated nutrient balances on administrative levels to river catchments using information on agricultural land cover European scale Crouzet P/EEA 2001: Calculation of nutrient surpluses from agricultural sources - Statistics spatialisation by means of CORINE land cover JRC 2002: Calculation of Agricultural Nitrogen Quantity for EU River Basins. Catchment/regional level Bogena H., Goemann H., Kreins P., Kunkel R.und Wendland F. 2004: Use of CORINE land cover data for modelling water balance and nitrogen fluxes in the river Ems and the river Rhine. Jordan C., & Smith R.V. 2004/05: Methods to predict the agricultural contribution to catchment nitrate loads: designation of nitrate vulnerable zones in Northern Ireland. Journal of Hydrology xx (2004) 1–14. Dunn, S.M., Vinten, A.J.A., Lilly, A., DeGroote, J. and McGechan, M., 2004: Nitrogen risk assessment model for Scotland: I. Nitrogen leaching, Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences, 8, 191-204.

7. Figure 1: N – Balance in Kg/ha for Europe (EU 15) calculated at NUTS 2 level (1990) Figure 2: N-Balance in Kg/ha for Europe (EU 15) calculated at river basin level (1990) Source: Terres JM 2002: Calculation of Agricultural Nitrogen Quantity for EU15, spatialisation of the results to river basins using CORINE Land Cover.

8. Excess water Scotland nitrogen surplus 1990Scotland leached N 1990 Source:Dunn, S.M., Vinten, A.J.A., Lilly, A., DeGroote, J. and McGechan, M., 2004: Nitrogen risk assessment model for Scotland: I. Nitrogen leaching, Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences, 8, 191-204

9. EEA (RIVM) 1995 Calculated concentration of nitrate in the leachate from agricultural soils (at 1 metre depth) ? When is the next time such a map can be produced? How to illustrate temporal trends?

10. Attempts to calculate European wide downstream river nutrient concentrations 1990 and 2010 as a basis for establishing the 6th environmental action programme Source: Wieringa, K., 2001. European Environmental Priorities: an Integrated Economic and Environmental Assessment. RIVM Report no. 481505010, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands.

11. Reviews Schoumans, O.F. & Silgram, M. 2003. Review and Literature Evaluation of Quantification Tools for the Assessment of Nutrient Losses at Catchment Scale. EUROHARP Arheimer, B., J. Olsson, 2003, Integration and Coupling of Hydrological Models with Water Quality Models: Application in Europe, World Meteorological Organisation/ Hydrological Operational Multipurpose System, 2003. EUROHARP testing The Register of Ecological Models (REM) Models Catchment scale: AGNPS, HBV-N, INCA, MAGIC, MERLIN, SHE, MIKESHE, SHETRAN, SMART, SWAT, TRANS, MONERIS, MODEST, NIIRS, PolFlow, LOIS, CHESS, OPUS), Soil water and field scale: ANIMO, EPIC, GLEAMS, HYDRUS/SWMS, MACRO, SOILN, WAVE, DAISY, DRAINMOD, NLEAP, RENLEM2, PTARG, SIMPLE, TOPMODEL, River Channels and water flow and quality: AQUASIM, CE-QUAL, MIKE 11, PC-QUASAR (UK), QUAL2E, TELEMAC, Decision support systems: BASINS, MIKE BASIN (DK), NELUP) and national level (STONE, NIRAMS (UK)). + several more Quantification tools of nutrient losses

12. Relationship between observed water quality and agricultural activities Most European countries have water quality monitoring programmes where nutrients and other pollutants are measured in different types of water bodies (groundwater, rivers, lakes, coastal and marine waters) and there are made assessment of the loading of nutrients from large river and coastal areas catchments.

13. Water quality monitoring Long-term trend Many national monitoring programmes have been running for 20-40 years – a good basis for evaluating trend Are there indications of decreasing nitrate concentration? River stations – EIONET Water EUROWATERNET Nitrate in groundwater Source: CEC 2002 Implementation of Nitrate Directive More than 3000 river stations from more than 30 countries – timeseries for many stations from 1992-2002

14. Nitrate in rivers and fertiliser consumption 5 year running average Proxy indicator for intensive agricultural production (high livestock density etc.) Temporal trend in nutrient concentrations and related to change in agricultural activities.

15. Long-term trend

16. Many national monitoring programmes have been running for 20-40 years – good basis for evaluating trend Germany Trend in nitrate levels in 154 river sites; annual average nitrate concentration is higher than 5 mg N/l if category are III or higher Source: Umweltbundesamt 25 % of monitoring stations on Europe's rivers recorded a decrease between 1992 and 2001. However, around 15 % of river monitoring stations showed an increasing trend in nitrate concentrations over the same period. Source: EEA Signals 2004 In Ireland increasing nitrate trend (1979- 2000) has been observed for the agricultural impacted south eastern rivers, while the concentration level has been constant for the western rivers Source: SoE 2004

17. Reporting of national monitoring programmes The Netherlands: agricultural streams (Landbouw); lakes (meeren) and the river Rhine (German-Dutch border); Denmark: agricultural streams (with and without point sources: fish farms & uncultivated

18. Spatial relationship between water quality (nutrient concentration & load) and agricultural activities Relationship between nitrate concentration and percentage of agricultural land in large rivers in Europe (Kristensen, 1996).

19. Spatial relationship between water quality (nutrient concentration & load) and agricultural activities Source: Kronvang et al. 2005 Source: Ley (1997) – LNF Anteil der landwirtschaftlichen Nutzfläche (LNF) Relationship between nitrogen concentration and the proportion of agriculture land for 75 rivers discharging into the Baltic Relationship between nitrogen/ phosphorus concentration and the proportion of agricultural land for 70 Danish streams

20. Modelling approaches and scenarios

21. European projections and scenarios European Fertiliser Manufacturing Association (EFMA) 2004: Forecast of food, farming and fertilizer use in the European Union, 2003 to 2013. Forecast of fertilizer use in EU & AC countries, 2003-2013 EEA's Agriculture outlooks project (2004/05): final baseline projection to 2025 CAPSIM projections of 25 crop and 11 animal activities – EU25 & 2001, 2004, 2011 & 2025. Result on country basis (EU25) on nutrient (N, P, K) input via fertilisers & manure, output by harvested crops and nutrient surplus for 1994, 2001, 2011 and 2025 CAPRI (2003) - Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Assessment Scenarios on Agenda 2000 reference run & the CAP Reform Proposal 2003. Results comparison of base year & 2009 N-surplus for European Union (EU15); regions (nuts 02) & farm types. OECD Environmental Outlook 2001Emissions (?) of nitrogen from agriculture to waters 1995, 2010 & 2020 RIVM et al 2001: European Environmental Priorities Attempts to calculate European wide downstream river nutrient concentrations 1990 and 2010 as a basis for establishing the 6th environmental action programme

22. EFMA fertiliser projections EU15 Member States New 10 Member States

23. CAPRI (2003) - Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Assessment Scenarios on Agenda 2000 reference run & the CAP Reform Proposal 2003. Results comparison of base year (1998) & 2009 N-surplus for EU15; regions (nuts 02) & farm types. Change N-surplus at soil level: Agenda 2000 versus base year situation From dark green to light green: between –18 % and –2 %, white around –1 % and from light red to dark red between 1 % and 25 %.

24. Examples of national scenarios RIVM 2000- National Environmental Outlook 5: - Situation after existing policies have been implemented Møller C., Kreins P., and Gömann H. 2003: Impact and cost-efficiency of alternative policy measures to reduce diffuse pollution caused by agriculture. Diffuse Pollution Conference Dublin 2003 RAUMIS – modelling for 2010 - Reference (Agenda 2000) - Scenario1 - LU - Scenario 2 – fertiliser tax Reference 2010Maximum 1 livestock unit/ ha

25. Examples of catchment scale scenarios De Wit M., van Gaans P., Bleuten W., Bendoricchio G., Behrendt H. (2001): The contribution of agriculture to nutrient pollution in three European rivers. European Water Management, 2/2002 Rhine, Elbe & Po – Base year 1995 Simulation of the EU Nitrates Directive: Average river load at downstream sites 2015-2020 – Scenarios: no change; 170 max & balanced farming F. Wendland, H. Bogena, H. Gömann, P. Kreins & R. Kunkel 2004: Impact of nitrogen reduction measures on the nitrogen load in the river Ems and the river Rhine (Germany) Pre- print Gömann H., Kreins P., Kunkel R., &Wendland F. 2005: Model based impact analysis of policy options aiming at reducing diffuse pollution by agricultureda case study for the river Ems and a sub-catchment of the Rhine. Environmental Modelling & Software 20 (2005) 261-271 River Ems and the river Rhine RAUMIS, GROWA & WEKU models - Scenario 1 – fertiliser tax - Scenario 2 - LU Palmeri L., Bendoricchio G., & Artioli Y. 2005: Modelling nutrient emissions from river systems and loads to the coastal zone: Po River case study, Italy. Ecological Modelling xxx (2005) xxx–xxx River Po – 2001-2016 – Moneris – River Load at downstream site Scenario BAU (EU policies : UWWT & Nitrate Directives ; Population & Agri development) Three Policy Target Scenarios Deep Green Scenario Kronvang et al.. 1999: Scenario analysis of nutrient management at the river basin scale. Hydrobiologia 410: 207–212, 1999. Müller-Wohlfeil et al. 2002. Linked catchment and scenario analysis of nitrogen leaching and loading: a case study from a Danish catchment-fjord system, Mariager Fjord. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 27, 691-699. Nielsen et al. 2004: Odense Fjord – Scenaries for reduction of nutrients. Technical report from NERI -276 s. Different Danish modelling & scenario activities

26. Bridging the Gap between specific national – R&D studies and European environmental information and policy development Much good information as a basis for European agri-water assessments

28. Figure 2 Relationship between percentage of rivers with nitrate greater than 20 NO3/l and total application of nitrogen (fertilisers and manure). Figure 3: Relationship between river nitrate concentration and percentage of arable land (land ploughed) and nitrogen fertiliser consumption. Source: Neill, 1981