1. Wealth and Investment Management Title Slide JUN 8 – 10, 2015 www.bermudacaptive.bm Global Market Outlook

2. Wealth and Investment Management Markets and the Global Economy Barclays Research, Economics and Strategy June 2015 Henk Potts

3. Performance of our asset classes 3 Source: FactSet, Datastream, Barclays; graph based on asset class indices as published in Compass February 2013.

4. US forecasts in a nutshell 4 % y-o-y except where stated 20132014E2015F2016F GDP 2.22.4 2.5 CPI 1.51.60.31.9 Official interest rate (%) 0-0.25 0.5-0.75NA Future forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance

5. US Interest rates have been close to zero since Dec 2008 5 Data source: Datastream, Barclays

6. The slow normalisation of US policy will start in Sept 2015 6 Data source: Datastream, Barclays

7. Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Barclays More than 200k new jobs each monthThe unemployment rate has steadily declined US labour market has rapidly recovered 7

8. Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, Barclays And debt affordability remains high Strong equity performance is driving higher net worthConsumer confidence Consumer confidence near multi-year highs 8

9. US Housing Market recovery has cooled 9 Source: Datastream, Barclays

10. The US Deficit is decreasing rapidly 10 Data source: Datastream, Barclays

11. Restructuring Europe is slow, but markets remain calm 11 Data source: Datastream, Barclays

12. The European Crisis isn't over….still plenty of risk in 2015 12 Data source: Eurostat, Datastream, Barclays

13. Greek government debt 13 Source: Datastream, Barclays

14. Inflation in the Euro area turned negative in Dec 14 Data source: Datastream, Barclays

15. The ECB’s QE program dwarfs the programs of all other central banks 15 Source: Gavekal, Barclays

16. Euro-area forecasts in a nutshell 16 % y-o-y except where stated 20132014E2015F2016F GDP-0.40.91.41.7 CPI1.40.40.21.1 Official interest rate (%)0.250.05 NA Future forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance

17. UK forecasts in a nutshell 17 % y-o-y except where stated 20132014E2015F2016F GDP1.72.82.22.1 CPI2.61.50.21.6 Official interest rate (%)0.5 NA Future forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance

18. Implied interest rate United Kingdom 18 Data source: Datastream, Barclays

19. Japan - Real GDP and Inflation 19 Data source: Datastream, Barclays

20. Chinese GDP growth has slowed, but remains at a respectable level 20 Source: Datastream, Barclays

21. GDP growth in India 21 Source: Oxford Economics, Datastream, Barclays

22. Long term asset class performance 22 Data source: Barclays Equity Gilt Study

23. US Equities - S&P 500 23 Data source: Datastream, Barclays

24. Expected earnings growth 24 Data source: IBES, Datastream, Barclays

25. S&P 500 Trailing Price/Earnings Ratio with Historical Median 25 Data source: Datastream, Barclays

26. S&P 500 and Eurofirst 300 26 Data source: Datastream, Barclays

27. Equity performance 2015 year-to-date by region 27 Source: FactSet, Barclays

28. S&P 500 and Euro STOXX - Forward Price/Earnings ratio 28 Source: Datastream, Barclays

29. S&P 500 and Euro STOXX - Trailing Dividend Yield 29 Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, Barclays

30. Selected equity markets Source: Datastream, Barclays Developed Markets Equities have outperformed Emerging Markets Equities in the years after the financial crisis 30  US Large and SMID cap companies have had the highest returns since end of 2012

31. Forward PE - Developed and Emerging Markets 31 Data source: MSCI, Barclays

32. Government bond yields: selected markets 32 Data source: FactSet, Barclays

33. Bond represented by respective Barclays indices. Source: FactSet, Barclays High Yield nominal yieldsInvestment Grade Bonds nominal yield Investment Grade and High Yield Bond yields 33  Investment grade credit is still expensive and vulnerable to rising issuance: we are tactically underweight  Expensive, but less interest rate risk. The majority of the recent changes in spreads has been driven by moves within the energy space. We remain tactically underweight

34. Oil price - Brent Crude Oil 34 Source: Datastream, Barclays

35. Commodity prices 35 Data source: Datastream, Barclays

36. Gold has slumped 36 Source: Datastream, Barclays Past performance is not a guide to future performance

37. Divergence in growth rate and policy suggests the dollar will continue to strengthen 37 Data source: Datastream, Barclays

38. FX Forecasts 38 Latest forecasts dated 21 st May 2015. These forecasts represent our current views of the FX rates shown. These views may change in the future and may not accurately reflect actual future FX rate movements. All data as cob 1 st June 2015 unless stated otherwise.

39. Selected US equity performance statistics since 1925 39 Source: Barclays Equity Gilt Study 2015, Barclays; All investments can fall in value. You may lose capital. Please note that past performance is not a guide to future performance. Number of consecutive years 23451018 Outperform cash666863676872 Underperform cash22192318120 Total number of years888786858072 Probability of equity outperformance 75%78%73%79%85%100% Outperform bonds615857596366 Underperform bonds2729 26176 Total number of years888786858072 Probability of equity outperformance 69%67%66%69%79%92%

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