1. Public Opinion and Political Action

2. How do we know the will of the people?
Public Opinion
The distribution of the population’s beliefs about politics and policy issues.
Demography
The science of population changes.
Census
A valuable tool for understanding population changes
Required every 10 years by the Constitution

3. How are polls conducted?
Random Sampling:
Polling that has been drawn from a population in such a way that each time an item was selected, every item in the population had an equal opportunity to appear in the sample (race, age, gender, class…)
Sampling Error:
The level of confidence in the findings of a public opinion poll.
+-%
Needs to be a statistically significant sample size to be considered valid

4. The Role of Polls in American Democracy
Polls help politicians figure out public preferences.
Does it make politicians think more about following the polls?
Exit Polls
Poll people leaving the voting booth
used by the media to predict election day winners.
The wording of questions makes a difference.

5. What Polls Reveal About Americans
Americans don’t know much about politics.
Americans may know their basic beliefs, but not how that affects policies of the government.

6. The Decline of Trust in Government
Since 1964, trust in government has declined.
Effects of Vietnam and Watergate

7. What trends do demographers observe?
The Immigrant Society
Hispanics are the largest growing minority group

8. The Regional Shift Decline of the Rust Belt, rise of the Sun Belt
Compare the rise of California and the fall of New York
Reapportionment:
The process of reallocating seats in the House of Representatives every 10 years on the basis of the results of the census.
Example, in 2010 Ohio lost 2 Congressional seats, Florida gained 2 seats

9. The Graying of America
Fastest growing age group is over 65, Baby Boomers
Potential drain on Social Security
“Gray Power” controls American politics

10. How do Americans participate in politics?
Political Participation:
All the activities used by citizens to influence the selection of political leaders or the policies they pursue.
Conventional Participation
Voting in elections
Working in campaigns / running for office
Contacting elected officials

11. Types of Participation
2000 Election participation
82% watched the campaign on television
73% voted in the election
34% tried to influence others how to vote
10% put a sticker on their car
9% gave money to help a campaign
5% attended a political meeting
3% worked for a party or candidate
Is this true? 73% of people vote? – No, people lie

12. Protest as Participation
Protest: A form of political participation designed to achieve policy changes through dramatic and unconventional tactics.
Civil disobedience: A form of political participation that reflects a conscious decision to break a law believed to be immoral and to suffer the consequences.

13. How few Americans vote?
Americans vote at low rates compared to other developed democracies
120/169 in voter turnout
Voter turnout is defined = People voted/Total eligible to vote (Not registered) out of the voting age population
Trend of low voter turnout
Average turnout in the US is about 67% for a presidential election
40% for midterm elections
36% voter turnout for the 2014 Midterms
The last time voter turnout was that low was 1942, when only 34% of voters cast ballots because many were oversees fighting WWII

14. World Comparison: vote to registration ratio, parliamentary or presidential elections
33 Germany 85.4%
48 Norway 80.4 %
50 Israel 80.3%
53 Greece 79.9%
66 Iran 77.3%
76 UK75.2%
120 USA 66.5%
in Presidential Elections
142 Russia 58.4%
157 Nigeria 50.3%
1 Australia 94.5% 2 Singapore 93.5 % 3 Uzbekistan 93.5 % 4 Liechtenstein 92.8 % 5 Belgium 92.5 % 6 Nauru 92.4 % 7 Bahamas 91.9% 8 Indonesia 91.5% 9 Burundi 91.4 % 10 Austria 91.3 % 15 Italy 89.8 % 19 South Africa 89.3%

15. US Presidential Voter Turnout
Elections with over 80%, 1840, 1860, 1876, 1896
1964 – 69.3%
1980 – 41.3%
1984 – 60.9%
1988 – 40.5%
1992 – 55.2%
1996 – 49.1%
2000 – 51.3%
2004 – 55.3% % %
Bad officials are elected by good citizens who do not vote
“Hapathy”= ignorant, happy people who don’t vote

17. Voter Turnout: Why is it so low?
Voter Registration
Number one cause of low voter turnout
Must do it months ahead of an election
Progressive reform meant to limit voter fraud
Registration procedures differ from state to state.
What happens when you move?
Have you registered?
Where will you live in November of 2016?
“Motor-Voter” (1993) – National Voter Registration Act
Allowed people to register to vote while they get license
Attempted to improve turnout, but failed

18. World Comparison: Compulsory voting- Australia
System in which electors are obliged to vote in elections or attend a polling place on voting day.
If an eligible voter does not attend a polling place, he or she may be subject to punitive measures such as fines or community service.
22 countries have laws for compulsory voting and 11 of these 22 countries enforce these laws in practice.
Australia 20$ fine for the 1st offense, 50$ 2nd time, no fine for local elections

19. System can confer a high degree of political legitimacy
The victorious candidate represents a majority of the population, not just the politically motivated individuals who would vote without compulsion
It becomes more difficult for extremist or special interest groups to get themselves into power or to influence mainstream candidates.
Under a non-compulsory voting system, if fewer people vote then it is easier for lobby groups to motivate a small section of the people to the polls and influence the outcome of the political process.
The outcome of an election where voting is compulsory reflects more of the will of the people (Who do I want to lead the country?) rather than reflecting who was more able to convince people to take time out of their day to cast a vote (Do I even want to vote today?).

20. Red-Compulsory voting, enforced.
Dark Pink-Compulsory voting, not enforced.
Orange-Compulsory voting, enforced only for men
Light Pink- Compulsory voting, not enforced (only men
Yellow-Historical: the country had compulsory voting in the past.

21. Other reasons for low turnout
Weekday, non-holiday voting, national elections are held on the first Tuesday after the first Sunday in November
Number of offices and elections too high, systemic to federalism
Are you going to vote for your local city council member?
Difficulty of Absentee Voting
Weak political parties – less “get-out-the-vote campaigns
Voter ID laws
Determining suffrage is a state’s rights, federalism issue
Recently, states have made it harder to vote

22. People who are destroying America- Teachers

23. Why should a citizen vote?
Some argue it is a rational choice to not vote.
Political Efficacy: The belief that one’s political participation really matters.
Civic Duty: The belief the in order to support democratic government, a citizen should always vote.

24. What factors correlate with higher voting rates?
Education – MOST IMPORTANT, more education=more voting

25. Age – 18-24 is the lowest, and 45 and up is the highest
Religious involvement
Marital Status: Married = more likely to vote.

26. Turnout by Age, 2000

27. 5. Race and Ethnicity – Whites vote at higher rates than minorities (might be economic based)

28. 6. Political Party or Union affiliation
Gender – men traditionally voted more, now women vote more
Two-party competition – more competitive elections have higher turnout
-Traits are cumulative - possessing several adds up.
-Cross-cutting cleavages – individuals influenced by many factors, it is important when testing for this that variables are controlled

30. How has suffrage expanded over time?
Lifting of property restrictions (1830) – “universal manhood suffrage” gave voting rights to all white males, Jacksonian Democracy
Suffrage for African-Americans ( )
th Amendment – Voting Rights could not be denied based on race
th Amendment – banned poll tax
1965 – Voting Rights Act of 1965 – federal law prohibited literacy tests, the federal government would enroll African American voters if states would not

31. Expanding Suffrage
Women’s Suffrage (1920) – 19th Amendment gave women the right to vote, largest ever expansion of the franchise
18-21 year-olds (1971) – 26th Amendment, sparked by Vietnam

32. How do Americans learn about politics?
Political Socialization:
“…the process through which and individual acquires [their] particular political orientation”

33. The Family
-#1 influence in the US
-Time & emotional commitment
-Political leanings of children often mirror their parent’s leanings

34. The Mass Media School / Education Generation gap in TV news viewing
Used by government to socialize the young into the political culture
Education produces better jobs and a more positive view of government

35. Why do people voter for a candidate?
Political Ideology:
A coherent set of beliefs about politics, public policy, and public purpose.
Who Are the Liberals and Conservatives?
Currently about 37% conservative, 23% liberal, 40% moderate

36. Do People Think in Ideological Terms?
Ideologues: think in ideological terms - 12% of the population
Group Benefits: rely on party labels - 42% of the population
Nature of the Times: current times are good or bad - 24% of the population
No issue content: based on personalities - 22% of the population

37. How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizen's Decisions
Party Identification
People generally vote for a party they agree with.
Rise of candidate-centered politics has changed this view.
Now many voters are individualistic.
Characteristics of each candidate have become more important than party.

38. How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizen's Decisions
Policy Voting
Basing your vote choice on issue preferences.
Must know where they and the candidates stand on issues and see differences between candidates.
Candidates are often ambiguous on the issues on purpose.
The press tends to focus on the “horse race” not the issues.
Today candidates are forced to take a clear stand in the party primaries.

40. How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizen’s Decisions

41. Which party do people vote for most of the time ?
Democrats
Republicans
African Americans
Most Hispanic groups
Jews
Women
Labor Unions
Teachers
Post Office Workers
The Working class
Urban
Young
Whites
Cubans
Religious groups, Evangelical Christians, Catholics
Men
Business owners
Police Officers
Soldiers
Affluent Americans
Rural
Old

42. In Conclusion Democracy, Public Opinion, and Political Action
We select our leaders, not policies.
We protest for specific policies, not against the government.
Many Americans do not participate or are informed about the political process.
There are many barriers to voting

45. Elections

46. How do elections affect public policy?
Mandate Theory of Elections
The idea that the winning candidate has a mandate from the people to carry out his or her platforms and politics if they win by a large margin.
Best examples, FDR’s 1932 election and the New Deal and LBJ’s 1964 election and the Great Society
Politicians like the theory better than political scientists do.

47. Elections

48. Federal elections
Federal elections are always held in even years on the first Tuesday in November after the first Sunday in November
They are held every even year, never during an odd year
Presidential elections are every 4 years
House of Representatives 100% of the body goes up for election every 2 years
Senate elections are rotated so that 1/3 of the body is up for election every 2 years
There are no elections for federal judges or most government employees (Post office workers, soldiers, accountants…)

49. State and Local elections
These elections can vary greatly and do not always coincide with federal elections
Elections can be in odd years
Not always held in November
Are there too many elections?
Examples:
Governors, mayors, state legislators, state and local judges, school boards, city council members, sheriff, …

50. What types of elections are there in the US?
Three types of elections:
Select party nominees (primary elections)
Select officeholders (general elections)
Select options on specific policies (referendums)

51. Referendums Voters approve or disapprove proposed legislation.
Purest form of democracy in the American system
There is no such thing as a national referendum, only state and local referendums
Often used for constitutional amendments.
Examples: gay marriage, marijuana legalization, school bond issues, & tax measures
Sometimes used as a get out the vote measure to draw loyal party voters to the polls (Anti-Gay marriage Amendments)

52. Referendums

53. Initiatives Petitions:
Voters in some states propose legislation to be voted on.
Requires a specific number of signatures to be valid.
Can still be voted down by the people (referendum)
Only at state levels, no such thing as a federal initiative
Some argue not democratic because powerful interest groups often have the resources to propose and execute
Example: medical marijuana in Florida, Morgan and Morgan

54. Recall Voters vote to remove a politician before his term is up
Voter impeachment
Example: Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker narrowly kept his office
Only a state level election, never at the federal level

55. How do you get elected President?
Nomination:
The official endorsement of a candidate for office by a political party.
Republican & Democratic Party most important endorsements, final two contest
Goal is to win the most delegates
1st step to becoming President
Success requires momentum, money, and media attention.

56. Primaries
Elections in which voters choose the nominee or delegates pledged to the nominee.
Started by turn of the century reformers to increase democracy (less republican form of government) and take power away from party leaders to choose candidates
Most states use one of the forms of a primary.
Frontloading is the tendency of states to hold primaries early - New Hampshire is the first primary by state law.
Generally primaries serve as elimination contests.

57. NH mandates in state law that they will always be 1st primary!

58. Primaries weaken Political Parties
Party leaders can’t control the candidates
Multiple candidates can splinter the party membership
Delegates tend to be out of touch with average voters on social and taxation issues
Candidates need the extremists to win delegate support
Primary elections tend to be extremist campaigns, while general elections tend to be more moderate
Primary elections tend to only let more extreme people vote

59. Types of Primaries closed primary:
voter can only vote for nominee if he/she is registered as party member, Florida
open primary:
voter doesn’t have to belong to a party to vote for that party’s nominee (still has to be a registered voter), South Carolina
Allows for crossover voting; a voter from one party votes for the other party’s nominee
Blanket (Jungle) primary:
voters get a list of all candidates from all parties, top 2 win and appear on the general election ballot
Both winners could be from the same party
California tried to implement this method, but deemed unconstitutional because it violated the 1st Amendment and the freedom of political association

60. Caucus Elections
Caucus: closed meeting of party leaders/followers who decide the candidates/delegates (only the true believers attend
Organized like a pyramid from local precincts to the state’s convention.
Not used by many states.
Iowa caucus is first and considered the most important.
More of a republican than a democratic form of government

61. Ah, lovely Iowa…

62. How a caucus works!
Caucus gathers in local church…
Caucus called to order…
Dean supporters gather here… Kerry supporters there… Edwards supporters over here!
And they try to convince each other to join their groups, until the caucus official sorts it out!

63. Is this nomination system good for America?

64. The Inflated Importance of Iowa and New Hampshire

66. 2008 Schedule January 3—Iowa caucus
January 5—Wyoming caucus (Republican only)
January 8—New Hampshire primary
January 15—Michigan primary
January 19—Nevada Caucus & Republican South Carolina primary
January 26—Democratic South Carolina primary
January 29—Florida primary
February 1 - February 2―Republican Maine caucus
February 5 ― Super Tuesday: Primaries/caucuses for both parties in 19 states, plus three Democratic-only caucuses and two Republican-only primaries

67. Evaluating the Primary and Caucus System
Disproportionate attention to the early ones.
Money plays too big a role.
Participation in primaries and caucuses is low and unrepresentative.
Do voters in New Hampshire and Iowa look like most Americans?
New Hampshire and Iowa effectively get to narrow the field to a few candidates
The system gives too much power to the media.
Reform: Should the US have a national primary day to take power away from Iowa and New Hampshire?
Super Tuesday functions as a Quasi-National Primary Day

68. The Convention Send-off
Once provided great drama, but now they are a basic formality - which means less TV time.
Are still important to the party to get organized and motivated.
Party platform: Statement of its goals and policies and general beliefs.
Official nominations and candidate speeches.
Held every four years
Held in swing states

69. The Declining Coverage of Conventions on Network TV

70. Primaries Explained

71. Debate: Should the Electoral College be abolished?

72. How does the Electoral College work?
Electoral College actually elects the President, not the voters
Founders wanted him chosen by the elite of the country (a republican instead of a democratic form of government)
States get to decide the method for selecting the electors
Candidates focus their campaigns on swing states, large states that are in play and could be won by either person, like Ohio or Florida

73. Each state has as many electoral votes as it does House of Representatives and Senators, 538 total Electoral votes
DC gets 3 votes, 23rd Amendment
Winner of the state’s popular vote typically gets ALL the Electoral College votes from the state, called the winner-take-all system. (48/50 states)
Nebraska and Maine sometimes split up their votes
Winner-Take-All system gives bigger emphasis to more populated states
Electors meet in December, votes are reported by the vice president in January.
Electors are pledged to vote for a person, but sometimes switch their vote (faithless elector)
If no candidate gets 270 votes (a majority), the House of Representatives votes for president, with each state getting ONE vote. The Senate would elect the VP.

75. Concerns With The Electoral College
-Disproportionate Voting Power Given to Different States
-The Winner-Take-All Method of Distributing Electoral Votes -Unbound Electors -House of Representatives Can Choose the President -Enforcement of a Two Party System -Presidency Can Be Won Without a Plurality of the Popular Vote: 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000
-Disproportionate Voting Power Given to the States

77. Arguments for the Electoral College
contributes to the cohesiveness of the country by requiring a distribution of popular support to be elected president
enhances the status of minority interests,
contributes to the political stability of the nation by encouraging a two-party system, and
maintains a federal system of government and representation.

78. Does the Electoral College give an advantage to large or small states?

79. Large State Advantage?
Win just the large states & can win the election

80. Small State (Republican) Advantage?
For example, the 12 smallest states today—Alaska, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming together account for only 17 (of 435) representatives in the House, or 3.9% of the total.  However, in the Electoral College, thanks to the “Senate bump,” the same states account for 41 electoral votes, or 7.6% of the total of 538.

81. Pick Debate Sides

82. The Last Battle: The Electoral College
How it works
The Trouble with the Electoral College
How to deal with a tie?

83. CGP Gray http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUS9mM8Xbbw&safe=active

84. A Tale of Three Elections
1800: The First Electoral Transition of Power
No primaries, no conventions, no speeches
Newspapers were very partisan.
Campaigns focused on state legislatures - they were the ones that chose the Electoral College.
People did not directly vote for the President
No majority in the Electoral College, so the House after many votes picked Jefferson over Burr
Revolution of 1800
12th Amendment

85. 1896: Gold v. Silver
Democrat’s main issue: Unlimited coinage of silver.
William Jennings Bryan won the Democratic Party nomination with the Cross of Gold speech at the convention, people did not vote in primaries yet
Bryan was the 1st candidate to campaign nationwide
McKinley won the election, and the Republicans became the party of power and broke the politics of paralysis of the age
Q. Why did the Northeast vote for McKinley?
A. No secret ballot, companies would fire you if you voted for the wrong party

86. 2000 Bush v. Gore
Election results hinged on Florida, where the margin of victory triggered a mandatory recount.
Litigation in select counties started additional recounts, and this litigation ultimately reached the United States Supreme Court.
The Court's contentious decision in Bush v. Gore effectively awarding Florida's votes to Bush and granting him the victory.
Popular Vote: 50,456,002 Bush to 50,999,897 Gore
This marked the fourth election in U.S. history in which the eventual winner failed to win a plurality of the popular vote like the elections of 1824, 1876, and 1888

87. Why can a good man not be elected president?

88. Money and Campaigning The Maze of Campaign Finance Reforms
Federal Election Campaign Act (1974)
Created the FEC to administer campaign finance laws for federal elections in reaction to Nixon and Watergate.
Created the Presidential Election Campaign Fund.
Provided partial public financing for presidential primaries (matching funds).
Provided full public financing for major party candidates in the general election.
Required full disclosure.
Limited Contributions.

89. Buckley v. Valeo (1976)
Supreme Court struck down limits on personal campaign spending.
Spending your own money on your campaign is a free speech 1st Amendment right.

90. Money and Campaigning Hard Money Soft Money
Money raised under the limits of campaign finance laws
Soft Money
Contributions (with no limits) used for party-building (voter education, voter registration, & get out the vote efforts) expenses or generic party advertising
McCain-Feingold Act (2002) banned soft money, increased amount individuals can contribute, and limited “issue ads.”
Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010)
Case struck down the ban on ads by corporations and unions on 1st Amendment grounds
Led to the creation of 501 (C) (4)s, Super PACs

91. The Decline in Income Tax Check-Off Participation for Federal Financing of Campaigns

92. The Proliferation of PACs
Definition: Created by law in 1974 to allow corporations, labor unions and others to donate money to campaigns.
As of 2004 there were 3,868 PACs.
PACs contributed over $258 million to congressional candidates in 2002.
Donate to candidates who support their issue, regardless of party affiliation
Not sufficient data that PACs “buy” candidates

93. Money and Campaigning

94. Money and Campaigning Are Campaigns Too Expensive?
Fund raising takes up lots of time.
Incumbents do worse when they spend more money because they need it when they face tough challengers.
The doctrine of sufficiency suggests that candidates need just “enough” money to win, not necessarily “more.”
Most Political Scientists maintain big money in the US political system is the #1 issue needed to be reformed

95. The Impact of Campaigns
Campaigns have three effects on voters:
Reinforcement, Activation, Conversion
Mostly, they only reinforce & activate
Selective perception: pay attention to things we agree with.
Party identification still has an affect
Incumbents start with a substantial advantage

96. Are Nominations and Campaigns Too Democratic?
Campaigns are open to almost everyone.
Campaigns consume much time and money.
Campaigns promote individualism in American politics.
Do Big Campaigns Lead to an Increased Scope of Government?
Candidates make numerous promises, especially to state and local interests.
Hard for politicians to promise to make government cuts.
Other countries have short campaigns - generally less than 2 months.
U.S. campaigns (especially for President) can last 18 months or more.

97. In Conclusion Democracy and Elections
Voters can steer government only when there are noticeable policy differences between the candidates.
Candidates who vow to continue popular policies are more likely to win elections, bigger government.
Policies affect voting behavior through retrospective voting.
Bad economies make politicians nervous.