1. ISA – Killing Speed Electronically Oliver Carsten Institute for Transport Studies University of Leeds UK

2. How does ISA operate? 1.Position: a GPS- based navigation system 2.Information: a digital road map with speed limits 3.HMI: Tell the driver the speed limit 4.Control (if wanted): a link to the drivetrain Evidence from trial after trial is that this can be made to work reliably

3. Driving with ISA reduces crash risk Calculation of individual crash risk with intervening ISA (report to Transport for London, 2006) Method: –By combining observed changes in speed behaviour on 30 mph roads (from ISA-UK Trial 1) –With risk of crash involvement given driving speed on urban roads (from Kloeden et al., 1997) –We can calculate an average saving in the risk of a crash Answer: –19.3% reduction

4. Attitudes Generally supportive public attitudes: –MORI poll in UK for FIA Foundation in 2002: 70% support for warning ISA in urban areas 58% would support non-overridable limiters on residential streets if that meant road humps would be removed ISA grows on those who experience it: – Almqvist and Nygard (1997) found that 73% of drivers reported being more positive towards ISA after using it than before –Lahrmann, Madsen and Boroch (2001) reported that 15 out of 20 drivers became more favourable to using ISA after experience of the system

5. ISA brings other benefits Fuel savings CO 2 savings Potential to reduce journey time (managed motorways; reduction in incidents) Cheap traffic calming

6. PROSPER Results: Benefits and Costs Oliver Carsten Institute for Transport Studies University of Leeds UK The Prosper project is co-funded by the European Commission, Directorate General for Energy and Transport.

7. Accident prediction and cost-benefit analysis Six countries Belgium, Great Britain, France, NL, Spain and Sweden Two major scenarios –Market driven (those who want ISA fit it) –Authority driven (first encouragement and then compulsion) Scenarios affect mix of ISA systems Procedure: –Predict traffic growth –Predict accident risk without ISA –Predict additional safety impact of ISA (via change in speed patterns) –Analyse costs and benefits

8. Penetration of Voluntary ISA in Market-Driven Scenario

9. Penetration of Voluntary ISA in Authority-Driven Scenario

10. Reductions in fatalities (ISA versus no ISA) in 2050

11. Benefit-to-cost ratios by country and scenario Note: Year of mandatory usage for Authority Scenario is in range 2032 to 2035

12. Implementation of ISA Comments at PROSPER seminar (policy-driven group): –Waiting till 2035 or 2050 is too long Can we learn some lessons from another successful technology seatbelts?

13. Time line for seatbelts 1949Nash offers lap belts in USA 1950Nash withdraws option 1955Ford and Chrysler offer optional lap belts in USA 1959Volvo introduces 3-point belt as standard in Sweden 1962Seatbelt anchors standard in US 1967GB requires installation of 3 point belts in front 1968US requires installation of 3 point belts in front 1968GB requires retrofit of 3 point belts in front on model year 1965 and later cars 1970Victoria (Australia) mandates use in front and rear 1975Sweden mandates use in front 1983GB mandates use in front

14. Stages Stage 1: Voluntary fitment –Lots of trouble to install Stage 2: Required anchorages –Pioneers adopt Stage 3: Required fitment –Large numbers can voluntarily adopt Stage 4: Compulsory usage

15. The Tipping Points The Tipping Points are: 1.Requiring capability on the vehicle (= the seatbelt anchorages) This enables voluntary fitment 2.Requiring fitment This enables large- scale voluntary usage But also one crucial difference with seatbelts: ISA cannot be used without an information service

16. Great Britain: Seatbelt wearing rates for front occupants of cars and vans

17. Conclusions ETSC seeks to identify and promote effective measures on the basis of international scientific research and best practice in areas which offer the greatest potential for a reduction in transport crashes and casualties. ISA fits those criteria with huge potential for casualty reduction ETSC and other safety organisations should promote 2 stages of deployment: Stage 1: –A pan-European speed limit information service –A standard link between speed limit information and vehicle control (ECE Reg 89 on Speed Limitation Devices as amended in 2002 allows for adjustable speed limiters) Stage 2: –Required fitment of intervening (but overridable) ISA

18. One last point Do we need a new name for ISA? –How likely is that a customer will walk into the showroom and ask for Intelligent Speed Adaptation? How about In-Vehicle Speed Support (IVSS)?