1. Laboratory of Climate and Water Resources ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006 Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Poznań. Poland Head – Professor Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Involved personel: Dr Małgorzata Szwed Dr Maciej Radziejewski Ms Iwona Pińskwar Mr Dariusz Graczyk

2. Areas of PASs interests : droughts floods crop yield heat and cold waves ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006

4. Estimating of the evaporation/evapotranspiration: Turc equation for Europe Ivanov equation for Europe method of heat balance for Poland

5. ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006 Variable Land use deciduousconiferousurbangreen sugar forest areascropscerealbeet P610,7 E903,2982,0464,5671,9738,2818,9 H = P-E14,0-41,1298,1144,9105,491,8 1961-1990 Variable Land use deciduousconiferousurbangreen sugar forest areascropscerealbeet P546,1 E687,8748,8352,9531,2574,5596,5 H = P-E-141,7-202,7193,214,9-28,4-50,4 2071-2100 P, E, H in (mm) Based on Had RM3 PRECIS – result, For the future scenario A2 For grid-cell with the city of Poznań

6. ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006 1961-1990 2071-2100 monthPEHPEH 158,19,049,058,520,238,3 251,314,436,959,325,234,1 347,625,022,742,324,417,9 450,146,53,648,745,13,6 558,476,2-17,860,778,8-18,2 669,892,6-22,855,798,7-43,0 760,1104,4-44,335,5116,4-81,0 839,967,5-27,619,274,2-55,0 936,041,9-5,923,045,4-22,3 1035,915,920,033,417,715,7 1148,719,029,751,229,921,3 1254,88,846,058,619,239,4 year610,7521,189,6546,1595,3-49,1 P, E, H in (mm) Based on Had RM3 PRECIS – result, For the future scenario A2 For grid-cell with the city of Poznań

7. ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006 Example: The potato yield (ton/ha) as a function of the July and August precipitations (mm) (Górski,1996).

8. 1 2 34 Hot days (temp. max>35 o C i temp. min>25 o C) in the future 1. Average number of hot days in JJA 2. Average duration of hot days spell in JJA 3, 4 Diference of characteristics 1. and 2. (future versus present) based on Had RM3 PRECIS – result

9. How do we interpret the idea of ENSEMBLES RT6.2: Sought impact response surfaces: Given T(x,y,t) and P(x,y,t) with daily resolution for future scenarios Find IMPi(x,y,t), where IMPi is the i-th impact function, i=1,..., N ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006

10. Three groups of problems: Ensembles of climatic scenarios are not available yet! Problems with real data availability (high costs which cannot be borne from low ENSEMBLES budget, restrictions, some data – e.g. on impacts – are not available at all – e.g. insurance data are classified). Scarcity of data on extreme extremes, e. g. 1997 flood in Poland – by far exceeding all other events (hence – one data point only), the same for 2003 heat wave in much of Europe! ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006

11. Thank you ENSEMBLES RT6 Meeting, Lund, Sweden, November 20, 2006