1. © 2004 CRIF Group The role of credit information to support consumers and lenders ITALY Results of research 2004 Annual General Meeting and Conference 3rd and 4th June 2004, Brussels Enrico Lodi - CRIF

2. © 2004 CRIF Group In 2003 CRIF commissioned the economic research company Nomisma to study: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CONSUMER CREDIT AND NATIONAL ECONOMIC SYSTEM Structural aspects Trends Direct and indirect economic relationships between consumer credit and consumption SECTOR EVOLUTION SCENARIOS Change factor identification Economic impact evaluation of scenarios

3. © 2004 CRIF Group 6,9 12,6 19,4 23,3 1995199820002002 Trend of consumer credit flows Billion euros, current values CONSUMER CREDIT IN ITALY

4. © 2004 CRIF Group CONSUMER CREDIT IN ITALY 1,25% 1,96% 2,73% 3,07% 1995 199820002002 Trend of consumer credit impact on consumption % values

5. © 2004 CRIF Group CONSUMER CREDIT AND CONSUMPTION An anti-cyclical tool -25,00% -20,00% -15,00% -10,00% -5,00% 0,00% 5,00% 10,00% 15,00% 20,00% 25,00% 1996199719981999200020012002 -2,50% -2,00% -1,50% -1,00% -0,50% 0,00% 0,50% 1,00% 1,50% 2,00% 2,50% Consumer Credit Flows Family Consumption

6. © 2004 CRIF Group CONSUMER CREDIT AND SALES -13,48 -7,75 -11,80 -20,90 0,00 -5,00 -10,00 -15,00 -20,00 -25,00 Cars and motor-bikes Electronics and Electrical appliance FurnitureTotal Growth of the incidence on sales Sales reduction in absence of consumer credit 16,8 1,0 7,5 8,4 22,0 9,5 11,0 14,2 34,8 11,5 16,5 20,9 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 Cars and motor-bikes Electronics and Electrical appliance FurnitureTotal 199820002002 % %

7. © 2004 CRIF Group CREDIT AND PROPENSITY TO CONSUME Consumer Credit % Var (0; -1,44) (8,95; 0) y = -1,44+0,16x -4,5 -3,0 -1,5 0,0 1,5 3,0 4,5 05101520 PMC % Var It is necessary a nearly 9% growth of Consumer Credit to produce a positive impact on consumption

8. © 2004 CRIF Group Forecast based on evolution trends BASIC TRENDS PRUDENT average 2000-2002 OPTIMISTIC average 1995-2002 Consumer credit annual growth +10,49% +15,70%

9. © 2004 CRIF Group Impact on Italian economy +0,3%+1,11% PRUDENT average 2000-2002 OPTIMISTIC average 1995-2002 GNP growth induced by consumer credit BASIC TRENDS

10. © 2004 CRIF Group The role of information POSSIBLE VARIABLES Credit granted growth More equal credit access System risk reduction and consequently reduction of credit access costs (interest rates) Competition growth in the credit market The information system supporting consumer credit in ITALY collects: - both negative and positive data - both open and closed contracts

11. © 2004 CRIF Group NegativePositive Definition of active policies Reduction of information used to support the consumer credit granting POSSIBLE VARIABLES

12. © 2004 CRIF Group Medium Restriction: Removal from the present information patrimony of positive credit registries of all the information regarding client behaviour whose contracts are closed Total Restriction: Removal from the present information patrimony of positive credit registries of all positive information (only usage of information regarding negative behaviour) Development Policy: Economic policies to support sector development (ex. tax reductions, structural actions on offer) SCENARIOS 1. 2. 3.

13. © 2004 CRIF Group Basic Trends (prudent)+0,3% Scenario 1 Medium Restriction -0,73% Scenario 2 Total Restriction-1,59% Scenario 3 Development Policy+2,02% GLOBAL IMPACTS GNP % Variation induced by Consumer Credit

14. © 2004 CRIF Group Negative Removal from the present information patrimony of positive credit registries of all the information regarding client behaviour whose contracts are closed: -0,7% GNP Removal from the present information patrimony of positive credit registries of all positive information (only usage of information regarding negative behaviour) : -1,6% GNP Reduction of information used to support the consumer credit granting GNP % variation induced by Consumer Credit “as is”: +0,3% POSSIBLE VARIABLES

15. © 2004 CRIF Group Thank you and goodbye!