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US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 1 Coupling Hydrologic and Socio- Cultural Analyses for Water Security (Hydro-SC)

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Presentation on theme: "US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 1 Coupling Hydrologic and Socio- Cultural Analyses for Water Security (Hydro-SC)"— Presentation transcript:

1 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 1 Coupling Hydrologic and Socio- Cultural Analyses for Water Security (Hydro-SC)

2 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 2 Water Security Water security includes:  Predicting and mitigating (as possible) floods and droughts  Sustainable development of water resources, both surface water and groundwater  Safeguarding of water functions and services for humans and the environment Our goal is not to solve the world’s water problems, but to give Army/DoD/US Intelligence advance warning of water resource crises and their likely social consequences.

3 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 3 “Avoiding Water Wars: Water Scarcity and Central Asia’s Growing Importance for Stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan” Committee on Foreign Relations, US Senate, Feb 2011 In Central and South Asia, particularly in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the impacts of water scarcity are fueling dangerous tensions that will have repercussions for regional stability and U.S. foreign policy objectives. The national security implications of this looming water shortage—directly caused or aggravated by agriculture demands, hydroelectric power generation, and climate instability—will be felt all over the world. … the United States should support efforts in Central and South Asia to model changes to water flow and volume for entire river basins across a range of scenarios, from the impacts of climate change to the construction of dams. Understanding these impacts, … will help governments make more informed decisions on water management. Today, most of these basins only have studies on the outcomes of individual projects, rather than the cumulative impact of multiple projects. … The United States should support the development of basin-level water modeling and scenario analysis … Basin-wide modeling is also useful for addressing tensions over hydroelectric dam proposals that continue to agitate countries sharing rivers. For the major dam proposals … there is still no independent analysis of the cumulative impact these projects will have on water flow. … The impact of our actions to address water extends far beyond a country’s border, as water transcends political boundaries.

4 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 4 Capbilities and Limitations Today Chief of Staff of the Army requested daily updates on the Indus River situation in Pakistan – it took 3 weeks to develop and run the flood model – we should be able to produce results in 3-4 days or less. SOUTHCOM requested inundation maps after the earthquake in Haiti – it took 3 weeks to develop those maps – we should be able to produce results in 3-4 days CENTCOM has asked for a hydrology model of Afghanistan. At present it would take one year and $600K to produce – we should be able to do this in 1 month for $50K SOUTHCOM has asked for a multi-nation hydrology model in South America. For a given inundation scenario, we have no real way to identify population responses and inform mitigation or contingency planning Unable to assess impact of future development on water resources in critical regions and anticipate increased unrest and likelihood of conflict Current headlines 7/01/2011 – A severe drought in the Horn of Africa—which includes Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea and Djibouti—is affecting almost nine million people, causing widespread hunger in the region while stripping local farmers of their livelihood [United Nations’ World Food Program]

5 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 5 Example Modeling Scenarios Dam-failure scenario: A dam is known to be suffering subsidence placing the dam and downstream people and buildings at risk. Hydrologic modeling enables forecasting inundation under dam-failure.  Human-geographic analyses identifies the most vulnerable populations (groups for whom the failure may be catastrophic), the conditions under which the failure is more/less catastrophic, enabling mitigation and contingency planning.  Land-Use modeling and analyses facilitates identifying plausible futures for the region.  Macro-economic modeling and analyses supports understanding viable land uses under scenarios and cascading the impacts across the region.  Dynamic system and/or social network modeling facilitates interpreting and forecasting roles and responses of key stakeholders in mitigation and contingency planning. Economic development scenario: a region is anticipated to undergo significant development, placing greater demand on the water resources.  Water sustainability assessment helps identify regions where this could be a significant concern.  hydrologic modeling enables forecasting water shortages under possible futures.  Land-Use modeling and analyses facilitates identifying plausible futures for sub-country regions.  Macro-economic modeling and analyses supports understanding viable land uses under those futures and cascading the impacts across the region.

6 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 6 Mission Statement At the heart of DoD’s mission lies military readiness, which includes anticipating conditions and their consequences. Our mission is to improve the scientific support for decisions to be made on issues of water resources. Surprise is not good for the Army.  Some conflicts aren’t as easily predicted. "It [Egypt] has taken not just us but many people by surprise" Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff  Other conflicts, such as those over cross-border water supplies or mass migration due to drought or flood, can be anticipated and contingencies assembled. Advance warning about potential or impending water resources problems will allow the US and its allies to defuse potential conflicts or, at least, prepare for them. Accurate characterization of water stressors and instability will be increasingly important for Phase 0 Theater Campaign planning.

7 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 7 COCOM Requirements Among the USACE Military Missions is COCOM support (Robert Slockbower, SES, Director of Military Programs) Following are excerpts from a COCOM survey on the issue of water security PACOM – COCOM’s should consider transboundary water security threats as they develop their Theater Campaign Plans. Upstream development can have serious negative impacts on downstream developing countries’ navigation, fisheries, irrigation, etc, potentially leading to conflict if cooperative arrangements/mechanisms are not in place to mitigate impacts. EUCOM – Paul Simon Water for the Poor Act requires Dept of State to develop and implement a strategy for water issues. AFRICOM – OSD should assist with integrating water security issues into Theater Campaign Plans and other policies.

8 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 8 Purpose and Objectives Provide the US Army the tools it needs to  Anticipate and mitigate/defuse conflicts or social upheaval resulting from water resource crises  Prepare adequately for natural disasters involving flood or drought  Rapidly assist in disaster relief operations Leverage USACE’s hydrologic and socio-cultural analysis capabilities to anticipate and safeguard against water security related issues, providing information for decision support in areas of potential conflict. Deliver capabilities in a form usable by COCOM planners, Marine Corps Intelligence Activity (MCIA), National Geospatial Agency, DoS, USAID, others

9 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 9 Business Concept Mission: The DoD’s missions include anticipating and avoiding conflicts and providing support for disaster relief. These missions are rife with resource allocation decisions that must be supported by our best science. Competitive Advantage: ERDC’s competitive advantage comes from its status as a world leader in hydrologic analysis, its socio-cultural expertise and a history of providing military engineering products usable by the field, which makes us uniquely qualified to lead this mission. Reimbursable Base: Currently, ERDC is responsible for a growing reimbursable/reachback business in hydrologic analysis for planning and operations. To date, customers have requested studies on flooding in Pakistan and Haiti, dambreak and flood mapping in Afghanistan and Iraq, and basin-scale, multi-national hydrologic evaluations in Africa. Customers include  Intelligence Agencies (MCIA, NGA)  US State Department  COCOMs (EUCOM, CENTCOM, SOUTHCOM, AFRICOM, PACOM)

10 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 10 Competition Several entities are performing hydrologic analyses, but most are at a local or regional scale. It is reasonably common, particularly in the U.S., to consider the social impacts of a particular hydrologic change in a drainage basin (e.g., social impact analysis for dam construction). Using coupled analysis of hydrologic change and resulting social consequences, as a means of anticipating sources of conflict, is novel. Some organizations conduct hydrologic studies at a multi-nation level  United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization has several programs aimed at assessing and improving groundwater and surface water management and encouraging low-water-use crops  Academic partnerships like Stanford University’s Woods Institute for the Environment are conducting the Global Freshwater Initiative which seeks to build policy evaluation models that account for both hydrologic processes and economic behavior  NASA is increasing its support to USAID and Department of State for water resource related topics  Environmental Indicators and Warnings (EIW) from intelligence community

11 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 11 Goals and Objectives The project’s four year goals are:  Phase I: Deliver tools for basin-to-regional scale hydrologic predictions in a form usable by COCOM planners, MCIA, DoS, and ERDC S&Es through the USACE Reachback Operations Center (UROC).  Phase II: Provide tools that can represent the social consequences resulting from 'what-if' hydrologic scenarios.  Phase III: Build a model-coupling framework to estimate the likelihood of conflict and social upheaval occurring as a result of the complex interaction between hydrologic change and social processes. Demonstrate this capability on one or more basins, understanding that local tuning or adaptation may be required for general use. The objectives for achieving our four-year goals are:  Deliver decision support and simulation tools into the hands of COCOM planners and intelligence agencies  Create steady income >$1.5M/yr by extending capabilities of the UROC

12 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 12 The Niger River Basin Cross-border Water Resources Changes in use or availability of cross- border water resources can create instability, particularly if those changes result in, or exacerbate shifts in population across borders

13 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 13 Flood Predictions Predicting floods and their human consequences can alert the Army to deploy support for disaster relief and prepare for mass migration Pakistan Haiti

14 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 14 Helmand River Basin, Afghanistan Watershed and Riverine Analysis Watershed and riverine analyses are used now, and will continue to be, vital parts of complete battlefield understanding. These analyses are done to address short-term scenarios. Analyzing longer-term (5-20 year) consequences of basin- or regional-level changes in water supply or demand (dam construction or removal, reservoir sedimentation) is essential for assessing water security.

15 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 15 The Team Hydrologic Modeling and Analysis  Dr. Mark Jourdan, CHL, product scope and design  Dr. Chuck Downer, CHL, distributed hydrologic modeling  Dr. Matthew Farthing, CHL, multi-scale modeling, knowledge extraction  Dr. Stacy Howington, CHL, surface/groundwater analysis, model interfaces  Mr. John Eylander, CRREL, weather/climate scenarios Socio-Cultural Modeling and Analysis  Dr. Susan Enscore, CERL, cultural and historic geographical analysis  Dr. Lucy Whalley, CERL, socio-cultural anthropological analysis  Mr. Tim Perkins, CERL, socio-cultural dynamics modeling Integration and Tool Interfaces  Mr. Dave Richards, ITL, data-to-information, product delivery  Others TBD (decision support, risk analysis, reduced-order modeling)

16 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 16 Reimbursable Customers US State Department US Intelligence Agencies  MCIA, NGA, DIA, CIA COCOMs  EUCOM, AFRICOM, CENTCOM, PACOM, SOUTHCOM Significant reimbursable opportunities on both the military and civil works sides of ERDC

17 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 17 Tiers of Customers TierCustomerValue CurrentMCIA, NGA, COCOMsCurrent reimbursable work 1 State DepartmentPotential for work supporting disaster relief and development (Simon Water Act) 3 Other Intelligence Agencies (CIA, DIA)Potential for classified work 3 Ft. Huachuca – Intelligence Battle LabEvaluates and refines tools and methods to support intelligence analysts 3 Department of Homeland Security Civil Agencies (including USACE) CONUS applications 3 US Army Reserve Security Cooperation Teams US Army Active Security Cooperation Teams US Army Staff, G3/5/7 3 Joint Staff, J3 (Operations) 3 COCOM planners (AFRICOM is most pressing) Long-range forecasting; What-if scenarios for projected weather impacts

18 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 18 Technology Transfer Two levels of transition:  Data products and analyses: Intelligence agencies like MCIA [Jim Hill is already funding watershed analyses] can, through the UROC, gain access to the capabilities and databases to be developed.  Software toolbox: COCOM planners, State Department, intelligence agencies and other DoD scientists and engineers will have the option of defining specific scenarios and performing high-level simulations themselves using a series of simple, (likely) web-based, GIS interfaces.

19 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 19 Support BG DeLuca (NAD) leads USACE support for AFRICOM and has promised cooperation and support. Other support will be gathered from AFRICOM, MCIA, etc. MCIA’s initial reactions:  Important work and people will want it  Must focus on specific basins/locations to show capability  Must deliver on a short timeframe (COCOM commanders think on a 2- year timeframe). Break down into incremental products.  Won’t be able to pre-compute all scenarios. Must speed up model setup and execution to be useful.  Must be clear that this is not a general tool and will require some local tweaking (especially socio-cultural)  Should include groundwater and effects of aquifer decline  Not clear what’s in the software package for people to run on their own?

20 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 20 Financial Plan This effort targets needs in conflict avoidance, capacity building, and disaster preparedness. The existence of a small, but vibrant reimbursable base in both ERDC’s hydrologic and cultural analysis areas suggests a strong future demand for a combined capability. The tools and capabilities to be built through this project have a high probability of dual-use. Funding Targets FY11FY12FY13FY14FY15FY16FY17Total Direct ($M) 0.52.5 3.0 3.5 9.5 Reimbursable ($M) 1.2 1.31.5 2.0 3.04.0 13.0

21 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 21 Approach / Milestones 4 TASK NAME FY11FY12FY13FY14 1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q 4Q Advance Existing Socio-Cultural Models Adapt current models to apply in regions of interest (e.g. AFRICOM) Extend socio-cultural models to include hydrologic forcing Advance Existing Hydrologic Modeling Capabilities Create and ingest long-range, regional scale weather products Couple simulations of different scales and complexity Automate and accelerate model construction in data-sparse environments Integrate Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural Analysis Capabilities Make socio-cultural predictions based on multiple hydrologic forecasts Evolve hydrologic predictions based on population or land-use changes Modeling Environments and Decision Support Extend graphical interfaces for analysis tools Build scenario generation tools Build decision support tools on reduced order models and database mining Conduct demonstrations and outreach to target customers in DoD AFRICOM, EUCOM, SOUTHCOM, PACOM assist in choosing sites Demonstrate coupled hydrologic and socio-cultural modeling - Milestones

22 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 22 Joint Doctrine Applies Phasing to Campaign Planning Phase 0 – Shape – Prevent/Prepare. Joint and multinational operations are performed to dissuade or deter potential adversaries and to assure or solidify relationships with friends and allies. They are designed to assure success by shaping perceptions and influencing the behavior of both adversaries and allies, … improving information exchange and intelligence sharing, and providing US forces with peacetime and contingency access. Shape phase activities must adapt to a particular theater environment and may be executed in one theater in order to create effects and/or achieve objectives in another. Current examples of Phase 0: Djibouti, Somalia, Korea During Phase 0, Regional Combatant Commanders use the military element of national power to assess and monitor the area of operations (AO), engage as a partner with Militaries of other nations, and assure capacity is there in case of natural disaster or instability. Due to CENTCOM’s operations, there is much pent-up demand for assistance in most other Regional Combatant Commands.

23 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 23 Purpose: Improve capability to understand and forecast risks to national security as a result of hydrologically-related events. Anticipate social consequences that may increase conflict or provide room to maneuver for extremist organizations Leverage USACE’s hydrologic and socio-cultural analysis capabilities to anticipate and safeguard against water security related issues, providing information for decision support in areas of potential conflict. Deliver usable capabilities to COCOM and other USG planners. Products: Next generation hydrology models that can: Identify inundated areas in days. Execute over very large domains. Next generation land use and macro-economic models that can: Forecast plausible futures at sub-national levels in OCONUS. Incorporate non-U.S. development and planning processes. Integrate diverse, non-standard demographic data. Coupled hydrology & social-cultural models that can: Identify groups significantly impacted by hydrological scenarios. Identify hydrological consequences of social and cultural change. Explore complex, adaptive interactions between water and society. Payoff: Quicker response, more complete representation for disaster relief. Ability to forecast changes in water supply / demand that allows the Army, COCOMs and intelligence agencies to include these factors in security policies and strategies. Improved ability to prioritize detailed analyses and contingency planning for water-security crises, based on social and cultural impacts. Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural Analyses for Anticipating Water Stress and Potential for Conflict Schedule & Cost MILESTONESFY12FY13FY14FY15 Coupled hydrology social- cultural Next-Gen Hydrology Next-Gen land use and macro- economic models AT400.52.53.03.5 25 35 Status: New 35 Total: $9.5M Unclassified / FOUO

24 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 24 Extra Slides

25 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 25 Metrics Summary Presently, it may take weeks to provide hydrologic assessment of disasters. ERDC has been asked to provide large scale hydrologic predictions that tax current capabilities. Future performance metrics  Disaster analysis in 10% of the time it takes at present.  Large scale hydrology, which includes supply and demand functions, provided in a timely fashion  Socio-cultural impact assessment possible and provided in a timely fashion

26 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 26 Key Issues Near-term (Current FY)  Integrating hydrologic and socio-cultural analysis efforts  Lack of available data for validation Long-term  Developing workable framework for simulation across range of scales with varying levels of fidelity  Delivering model predictions with risk assessment and uncertainty quantification in a useful way for customers  Develop relationship with customer base outside DoA (e.g., DoS, USAID, DHS)  First two are key technical issues which must be resolved. Third impacts our ability to build larger customer base for reimbursables.

27 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 27 Summary of Current Socio-cultural Modeling Capability ERDC has an interdisciplinary team (anthropology, archaeology, ecology, geography, political science, sociology, urban & regional analysis & planning, etc.) with experience in analysis and modeling of social and cultural dynamics and population ecosystems. We have access and experience with a broad range of existing tools and methods for developing socio-cultural models (both tailored for individualized situations, and for reusable generalized tools). Defining specific COCOM-related hydrologically-concerned challenges will provide a basis upon which to conduct necessary cross-country comparative analyses upon which to develop an exploratory and forecasting model.

28 US Army Corps of Engineers ® Engineer Research and Development Center 28 Customer Request ERDC Decision Support Tools Database of pre-computed scenarios ERDC or other Army S&E ERDC or other Army S&E ERDC Hydrologic Simulators ERDC Hydrologic Simulators Workflow for Reachback/Reimbursable Support Explore alternatives, including risk Are relevant simulations in the database? Extract Knowledge from Raw Simulation Results Compare against recent history? Basin(s) of interest Weather conditions (historical, predicted, or what-if) Land use (clear cutting, crop changes) Land use (clear cutting, crop changes) Population statistics (current, projected, or what-if) Population statistics (current, projected, or what-if) N N Y Y ERDC Socio-Cultural Simulators ERDC Socio-Cultural Simulators Data Gathering from Multiple Sources Data Gathering from Multiple Sources Other Water Demands Other Water Demands Build Specific Simulation Scenarios


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