1. The BRIC economies Dani Rodrik SW31/PED-233/Law School 2390 Spring 2013

2. Developing countries are now growing more rapidly than advanced countries… Growth trends in developed and developing countries, 1950-2011

3. … but with significant regional differences Developing country growth trend by region, 1950-2011

4. The record on global poverty Source: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPOVCALNET/Resources/Global_Poverty_Update_2012_02-29-12.pdf

5. An apparent puzzle: countries that have done the best have not followed the orthodox rule book *The index is a composite quantitative measure of “the 10 key ingredients of economic freedom such as low tax rates, tariffs, regulation, and government intervention, as well as strong property rights, open capital markets, and monetary stability.”

6. How to get growth going: a Chinese counterfactual solution problem Low agricultural productivity Price liberalization Private incentives Land privatization Fiscal revenues Tax reform Urban wages Corporatization MonopolyTrade liberalization Unemployment Safety nets Enterprise restructuringFinancial sector reform And so on...

7. How China did it instead  Pragmatic, often heterodox solutions to overcome political constraints and second-best complications  Two-track pricing insulates public finance from the provision of supply incentives  Household responsibility system obviates the need for ownership reforms  Township and village enterprises provide effective control rights when courts are weak  Special economic zones provide export incentives without removing protection for state firms  Federalism, “Chinese-style” generates incentives for policy competition and institutional innovation  Strategic and sequential approach targeting one binding constraint at a time  First agriculture, then industry, then foreign trade, now finance…  Remaining institutional challenges  Especially with regard to political democracy and the rule of law

8. A typology of growth outcomes (1)

9. The two dynamics of growth 1. “Fundamentals”: building broad capabilities in the forms of human capital and strong institutions  Takes time, requires broad-based complementary investments, and produces steady but moderate growth 2. “Structural transformation”: emergence and expansion of modern industries  Requires narrower range of reforms (that are often sectoral) to remove/compensate for costs modern industries face, and produces rapid growth until dualism eliminated The set of policies required to foster these two dynamics overlap, but are not same In particular, role of unconventional policies to stimulate new industries (as in East Asia)

10. A typology of growth outcomes (2)

11. A typology of growth outcomes (3)

12. Bottom line  Industrialization has been the route to rapid growth in the past  with manufacturing’s ability to absorb low-skill labor a bonus from inclusion standpoint  While steady accumulation of “capabilities” has been a requirement for longer-term convergence  Industrialization has been typically promoted through pragmatic, opportunistic policies with “unorthodox” features  A development-friendly global context:  provides access to markets, capital and technologies of advanced countries  shows benign neglect towards structural transformation policies in developing countries

13. Prognosis  In advanced countries:  High public debt  Existential problems of the eurozone  Distributional struggles related to decline of middle class  China’s unsustainable growth path and institutional shortcomings  Less buoyant world economy  Further pressures to narrow policy space in developing countries  Reduced employment-absorption capacity of manufacturing  The challenge of “green technologies”

14. Policy  Ultimately, economic performance will continue to depend mostly on what happens at home  But policies will need to focus somewhat more on home markets and less on world markets  In particular, social and incomes policies that expand middle class and domestic market become more of a complement for growth policies  Globally, need for a new settlement between advanced countries and large emerging markets  the latter can no longer be free-riders on the policies of the former  must moderate ambitions on financial globalization and regulatory harmonization to expand domestic policy space