1. A Working Paper: Art Assessment Dan China FFT and Targets

2. Targets are a contentious subject and FFT data is too often used unquestioningly. This is inappropriate. This presentation explains FFT and shows how it could contribute to setting a GCSE art target for a student. Lets call her Mary.

3. FFT needs to be demystified. FFT does not set targets – schools do. FFT is not psychometric testing based on En, Ma, Sci SATs. FFT is just statistical data drawn from all the students who took art last year. This is how it works - Using FFT to establish a target for Mary

4. First find all the students who took art last year

5. Using FFT to establish a target for Mary Then find all those who had exactly the same SAT scores as Mary.

6. Using FFT to establish a target for Mary Then select all students of same gender as Mary

7. Using FFT to establish a target for Mary Then select students with similar ethnicity/context as Mary

8. Using FFT to establish a target for Mary Then select students with a similar school context.

9. This leaves the group of last year’s students with a STATISTICALLY similar starting points to Mary. (ie the same KS2 SAT’s, gender, ethnicity, context) Using FFT to establish a target for Mary

10. Then sort this group by the GCSE grade they actually achieved last year. Use this to estimate the STATISTICAL probability of Mary getting any particular grade. Using FFT to establish a target for Mary

11. In this group 40% got a D grade last year and 30% got a C grade. Using FFT to establish a target for Mary

12. But D is NOT an FFT target, simply the most likely outcome statistically speaking. Using FFT to establish a target for Mary

13. FFT does not know Mary. But her teacher does. Using FFT to establish a target for Mary

14. “they provide an estimate of what might happen if your pupils make progress that is in line with that of similar pupils in previous years.” FFT guidance notes NOT a target or prediction This is what the school actually gets from FFT.

15. Student A is statistically most likely to get a ‘C’ but has a ‘one in five’ chance of getting a grade ‘B’ or a ‘D’. If the student actually gets a ‘B’, FFT is not, therefore, wrong, as is sometimes claimed. The school just identified the wrong target.

16. For student B there is a statistically meaningless distinction between grades ‘C’ and ‘B’ (only 1% difference). The student also has a 1 in 5 chance of getting an ‘A’ grade.

17. For student C, FFT provides no meaningful statistical difference between grades ‘E’, ‘D’ or ‘C’.

18. Setting targets is best done with senior leaders who negotiate with departments, probably using the process on the right. 1.Look at FFT probability range for all grades 2.Look at art teacher’s assessment records 3.Consider internal tracking data (other subjects) 4.Identify an appropriately challenging art target for Mary 5.Check aggregated, cohort level, targets against FFT Using FFT to establish a target for Mary

19. A Working Paper: Art Assessment Dan China This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License.Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License