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College Football 11/13/2009 5:00pm 115West Virginia+300+10 (-110) Ov 56 (-110) 116Cincinnati-360-10 (-110) Un 56 (-110) Please come and make a bet on the.

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Presentation on theme: "College Football 11/13/2009 5:00pm 115West Virginia+300+10 (-110) Ov 56 (-110) 116Cincinnati-360-10 (-110) Un 56 (-110) Please come and make a bet on the."— Presentation transcript:

1 College Football 11/13/2009 5:00pm 115West Virginia+300+10 (-110) Ov 56 (-110) 116Cincinnati-360-10 (-110) Un 56 (-110) Please come and make a bet on the game listed above. Whether you have any sports betting experience or not, just try to make one bet. It’s all for fun, so give it a shot!

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3 The Probabilities of Basic Sports Wagering Ronald W. Yates Patrick L. Villa College of Southern Nevada

4 52.380952381 % What is a Square?

5 Scoreboard Update College Football West Virginia014:12 Cincinnati01 st Quarter

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7 Scoreboard Update College Football West Virginia05:46 Cincinnati71 st Quarter

8 National Football League – Week 10 11/15/2009 5:20pm 239New England Patriots+120+3 (-120) Ov 50 (-110) 240Indianapolis Colts-140-3 (100) Un 50 (-110) Pro Basketball 11/13/2009 7:05pm 713Houston Rockets-180-4 1/2 (-110) Ov 207 ½ (-110) 714Sacramento Kings+160+4 1/2 (-110) Un 207 ½ (-110)

9 Scoreboard Update College Football West Virginia0End Cincinnati71 st Quarter

10 Money Line Bets LineWagerTo Win -120 $120$100 $12 $10 -180$18$10 -700$70$10 100$10 +140$10$14 +185 $10$18.50 +600$10$60

11 Scoreboard Update College Football West Virginia713:52 Cincinnati72 nd Quarter

12 Pro Football – Week 10 11/15/2009 5:20pm 239New England Patriots+120+3 (-120) Ov 50 (-110) 240Indianapolis Colts-140-3 (100) Un 50 (-110)

13 Scoreboard Update College Football West Virginia710:20 Cincinnati142nd Quarter

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15 Scoreboard Update College Football West Virginia7Half Cincinnati21Time

16 National Hockey League 11/13/2009 4:35pm 59Los Angeles Kings-185-1 1/2 (+115) Ov 6 (-120) 60Atlanta Thrashers+165+1 1/2 (-105) Un 6 (Even) Major League Baseball 11/4/2009 5:20pm 401Philadelphia Phillies+160+1 1/2 (+110) Ov 9 (-105) 402New York Yankees-180-1 1/2 (-120) Un 9 (-105)

17 Scoreboard Update College Football West Virginia109:42 Cincinnati213 rd Quarter

18 Boxing Welterweight Bout 11/14/2009 8:00pm 2003Miguel Angel Cotto+220 2004Manny Pacquiao-300 2007Will Go 9 Full Rounds+110 2008Will Not Go 9 Full Rounds-130 2251Cotto By Decision4/1 2252Cotto By KO5/2 2253Pacquiao By Decision2/1 2254Pacquiao By KO5/8 225512 Round Draw20/1

19 Scoreboard Update College Football West Virginia104:37 Cincinnati283 rd Quarter

20 Parlay Bets Off the Board (Current lines) Parlay Payouts (-110) # TeamsPayout 213/5 36/1 411/1 522/1 644/1 788/1 8175/1

21 Scoreboard Update College Football West Virginia10End Cincinnati283 rd Quarter

22 Expected Values of Parlay Bets With n bets in a parlay, the probability of winning is (1/2) n, and the table is based upon a standard $10 wager. Parlay Type Probability of Winning Expected Value Formula Expected Value 2 Team(1/2) 2 = 1/4(1/4)(+$26) + (3/4)(-$10) -$1 3 Team(1/2) 3 = 1/8(1/8)(+$60) + (7/8)(-$10) -$1.25 4 Team(1/2) 4 = 1/16(1/16)(+$110) + (15/16)(-$10) -$2.50

23 Scoreboard Update College Football West Virginia1712:59 Cincinnati284 th Quarter

24 Off the Board (Current lines) Parlay Expected Values # TeamsTrue OddsPayout Gain from a Winning $10 bet Expected Return ($10 bet) 2 1/413/5$26$9.00 3 1/86/1$60$8.75 4 1/1611/1$110$7.50 5 1/3222/1$220$7.19 6 1/6444/1$440$7.03 7 1/12888/1$880$6.95 8 1/256175/1$1,750$6.88

25 Scoreboard Update College Football West Virginia179:27 Cincinnati354 th Quarter

26 Payouts for Money Line Parlays (Lines are something other than -110) The money line of each proposition is substituted into [(win amount/ bet amount) + 1], and the resulting terms are then multiplied together. Example: a 3-team parlay of the following propositions. Bet #1Bet #2Bet #3Result Line-125 (SD)+220 (Buf)-180 (Den) [(100/125) + 1]*[(220/100) + 1]*[(100/180) + 1] 1.8*3.2*1.5556=8.96 $30 betPays$30*8.96 = $268.80

27 Scoreboard Update College Football West Virginia171:31 Cincinnati354 th Quarter

28 Parlay Cards

29 The Language of Sports Betting SquareActionBad Beats HandicappingAdded GameHedging a Parlay BuckCircled GameHook DollarStraight UpUnits DimeMiddleMove the Line ChalkATSOpening Line JuiceHalftime WagersOutlaw Line Prop BetsFirst Half BetRun/ Puck Line

30 Scoreboard Update College Football West Virginia17Final Cincinnati35

31 Post Time Expected Value of a Straight Bet: (1/2)(+$10) + (1/2)(-$11) = - $0.50 In order to break even, must win 11 out of every 21 bets (11/21)(+$10) + (10/21)(-$11) = $ 0 Winning 11 out of every 21 bets = 52.38… % Makes winning sound easy… doesn’t it?

32 Experimental Probability 15 Picks per week over the course of 7 Seasons 7 Seasons Player APlayer BPlayer CPlayer DPooled Wins9528997709243545 Loses8728547418803347 Ties40453833156 Winning %51.47%51.28%50.96%51.22%51.44%

33 Experimental Probability 15 Picks per week over the course of 7 Seasons 7 Seasons Player APlayer BPlayer CPlayer DPooled Wins9528997709243545 Loses8728547418803347 Ties40453833156 Winning %51.47%51.28%50.96%51.22%51.44% If everyone had wagered $11 per game… Net:-$72-$404-$451-$440-$1,367

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35 Round Robin Parlays Let's say you have 4 bets that you like, call them A, B, C, and D, and you want to bet every possible parlay with these 4 bets. Using combinations, we can find that this includes a total of 11 bets: ParlaysCombinationsDifferent Bets 2 Team 4C24C2 AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD6 3 Team 4C34C3 ABC, ABD, ACD, BCD4 4 Team 4C44C4 ABCD1

36 Betting Parlays Let's say you do extremely well, and pick the winner in 4 out of 7 games (which is a 57% success rate). We will call the bets A, B, C, D, 1, 2, and 3, with the letters being winners and the numbers being losers. Using a $10 wager: Round Robin Parlays Number of Bets WinnersExpected Value Formula 2 Team 7 C 2 = 21 Bets AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD (6/21)(+$26) + (15/21)(-$10) +$0.29 3 Team 7 C 3 = 35 Bets ABC, ABD, ACD, BCD (4/35)(+$60) + (31/35)(-$10) -$2.00 4 Team 7 C 4 = 35 Bets ABCD is the only winner (1/35)(+$100) + (34/35)(-$10) -$6.86

37 Pro Football – Week 10 (1 st Half) 11/15/2009 5:20pm 1239New England Patriots+1 1/2 (-110) Ov 25 (-110) 1240Indianapolis Colts-1 1/2 (-110) Un 25 (-110)

38 Scoreboard Update NFL Morning Games Jacksonville014:31 New York Jets01 st Denver015:00 Washington01 st Cincinnati015:00 Pittsburgh01 st Detroit014:29 Minnesota01 st Atlanta014:01 Carolina01 st Tampa Bay013:29 Miami01 st New Orleans015:00 St. Louis01 st Buffalo014:42 Tennessee71 st

39 Scoreboard Update NFL Morning Games Jacksonville010:09 New York Jets31 st Denver09:31 Washington71 st Cincinnati712:47 Pittsburgh01 st Detroit311:16 Minnesota01 st Atlanta08:57 Carolina71 st Tampa Bay08:24 Miami01 st New Orleans313:02 St. Louis01 st Buffalo011:05 Tennessee141 st

40 Scoreboard Update NFL Morning Games Jacksonville04:17 New York Jets31 st Denver35:34 Washington71 st Cincinnati76:01 Pittsburgh71 st Detroit35:25 Minnesota01 st Atlanta02:31 Carolina71 st Tampa Bay04:01 Miami01 st New Orleans107:48 St. Louis01 st Buffalo02:57 Tennessee141 st

41 Scoreboard Update NFL Morning Games Jacksonville014:38 New York Jets102 nd Denver30:52 Washington71 st Cincinnati71:28 Pittsburgh71 st Detroit32:29 Minnesota71 st Atlanta313:08 Carolina72 nd Tampa Bay00:09 Miami71 st New Orleans133:22 St. Louis01 st Buffalo013:42 Tennessee142 nd

42 Scoreboard Update NFL Morning Games Jacksonville78:21 New York Jets102 nd Denver311:44 Washington72 nd Cincinnati713:10 Pittsburgh142 nd Detroit314:31 Minnesota142 nd Atlanta109:30 Carolina72 nd Tampa Bay011:57 Miami142nd New Orleans2014:30 St. Louis02 nd Buffalo09:18 Tennessee142 nd

43 Scoreboard Update NFL Morning Games Jacksonville73:43 New York Jets102 nd Denver35:21 Washington72 nd Cincinnati77:52 Pittsburgh142 nd Detroit37:07 Minnesota212 nd Atlanta175:52 Carolina72 nd Tampa Bay06:24 Miami212nd New Orleans2710:33 St. Louis02 nd Buffalo03:52 Tennessee142 nd

44 Scoreboard Update NFL Morning Games Jacksonville72:00 New York Jets102 nd Denver32:46 Washington72 nd Cincinnati73:39 Pittsburgh142 nd Detroit33:56 Minnesota212 nd Atlanta171:57 Carolina72 nd Tampa Bay03:09 Miami212nd New Orleans277:44 St. Louis32 nd Buffalo0 Tennessee17Half

45 Scoreboard Update NFL Morning Games Jacksonville10 New York Jets10Half Denver61:03 Washington72 nd Cincinnati71:53 Pittsburgh142 nd Detroit30:52 Minnesota242 nd Atlanta17 Carolina14Half Tampa Bay70:14 Miami212nd New Orleans274:01 St. Louis32 nd Buffalo0 Tennessee17Half

46 Scoreboard Update NFL Morning Games Jacksonville10 New York Jets10Half Denver6 Washington7Half Cincinnati7 Pittsburgh17Half Detroit3 Minnesota24Half Atlanta17 Carolina14Half Tampa Bay7 Miami21Half New Orleans341:57 St. Louis32 nd Buffalo313:24 Tennessee173 rd

47 Scoreboard Update NFL Morning Games Jacksonville1011:24 New York Jets103 rd Denver6 Washington7Half Cincinnati7 Pittsburgh17Half Detroit3 Minnesota24Half Atlanta2412:39 Carolina143 rd Tampa Bay7 Miami21Half New Orleans34 St. Louis3Half Buffalo38:34 Tennessee243 rd

48 Scoreboard Update NFL Morning Games Jacksonville175:37 New York Jets103 rd Denver911:21 Washington73 rd Cincinnati1413:25 Pittsburgh173 rd Detroit312:45 Minnesota313 rd Atlanta247:02 Carolina173 rd Tampa Bay714:09 Miami213 rd New Orleans34 St. Louis3Half Buffalo63:29 Tennessee243 rd

49 Scoreboard Update NFL Morning Games Jacksonville170:24 New York Jets103 rd Denver166:59 Washington73 rd Cincinnati147:44 Pittsburgh243 rd Detroit107:04 Minnesota313 rd Atlanta243:41 Carolina243 rd Tampa Bay78:22 Miami213 rd New Orleans4112:09 St. Louis33 rd Buffalo614:39 Tennessee244 th

50 Scoreboard Update NFL Morning Games Jacksonville1712:50 New York Jets134 th Denver161:41 Washington103 rd Cincinnati140:39 Pittsburgh243 rd Detroit102:39 Minnesota383 rd Atlanta3114:47 Carolina244 th Tampa Bay72:08 Miami213 rd New Orleans416:59 St. Louis63 rd Buffalo139:01 Tennessee244 th

51 Scoreboard Update NFL Morning Games Jacksonville175:13 New York Jets134 th Denver1612:04 Washington104 th Cincinnati2111:30 Pittsburgh244 th Detroit1012:11 Minnesota384 th Atlanta319:22 Carolina244 th Tampa Bay713:29 Miami214 th New Orleans441:20 St. Louis63 rd Buffalo132:00 Tennessee314 th

52 Scoreboard Update NFL Morning Games Jacksonville242:00 New York Jets134 th Denver166:29 Washington104 th Cincinnati214:52 Pittsburgh274 th Detroit104:20 Minnesota454 th Atlanta343:01 Carolina244 th Tampa Bay145:56 Miami214 th New Orleans5112:45 St. Louis64 th Buffalo13 Tennessee31F

53 Scoreboard Update NFL Morning Games Jacksonville24 New York Jets13F Denver162:00 Washington104 th Cincinnati210:29 Pittsburgh274 th Detroit10 Minnesota45F Atlanta34 Carolina24F Tampa Bay21End Miami214 th New Orleans584:19 St. Louis64 th Buffalo13 Tennessee31F

54 Scoreboard Update NFL Morning Games Jacksonville24 New York Jets13F Denver16 Washington17F Cincinnati21 Pittsburgh27F Detroit10 Minnesota45F Atlanta34 Carolina24F Tampa Bay2113:02 Miami21OT New Orleans580:48 St. Louis134 th Buffalo13 Tennessee31F

55 Scoreboard Update NFL Morning Games Jacksonville24 New York Jets13F Denver16 Washington17F Cincinnati21 Pittsburgh27F Detroit10 Minnesota45F Atlanta34 Carolina24F Tampa Bay21 Miami24F/OT New Orleans58 St. Louis13F Buffalo13 Tennessee31F

56 Pro Football – Week 10 (2 nd Half) 11/15/2009 5:20pm 2239New England Patriots+1 (-110) Ov 27 (-110) 2240Indianapolis Colts (-110) Un 27 (-110)

57 Scoreboard Update NFL Afternoon Games Kansas City014:31 Oakland01 st Seattle015:00 Arizona01 st Philadelphia015:00 San Diego01 st Dallas014:42 Green Bay71 st

58 Scoreboard Update NFL Afternoon Games Kansas City06:29 Oakland71 st Seattle09:22 Arizona31 st Philadelphia010:29 San Diego01 st Dallas37:28 Green Bay71 st

59 Scoreboard Update NFL Afternoon Games Kansas City014:30 Oakland142 nd Seattle74:33 Arizona31 st Philadelphia03:51 San Diego71 st Dallas31:50 Green Bay71 st

60 Scoreboard Update NFL Afternoon Games Kansas City77:41 Oakland142 nd Seattle713:59 Arizona62nd Philadelphia014:15 San Diego72 nd Dallas1012:45 Green Bay72 nd

61 Scoreboard Update NFL Afternoon Games Kansas City72:00 Oakland142 nd Seattle79:40 Arizona92nd Philadelphia08:49 San Diego72 nd Dallas106:20 Green Bay72 nd

62 Scoreboard Update NFL Afternoon Games Kansas City7 Oakland14Half Seattle143:21 Arizona92nd Philadelphia03:08 San Diego72 nd Dallas101:59 Green Bay72 nd

63 Scoreboard Update NFL Afternoon Games Kansas City7 Oakland14Half Seattle141:01 Arizona92nd Philadelphia00:39 San Diego102 nd Dallas17 Green Bay7Half

64 Scoreboard Update NFL Afternoon Games Kansas City712:04 Oakland143 rd Seattle14 Arizona16Half Philadelphia0 San Diego10Half Dallas17 Green Bay7Half

65 Scoreboard Update NFL Afternoon Games Kansas City145:23 Oakland143 rd Seattle14 Arizona16Half Philadelphia0 San Diego10Half Dallas2414:02 Green Bay73 rd

66 Scoreboard Update NFL Afternoon Games Kansas City140:53 Oakland173 rd Seattle1412:19 Arizona233rd Philadelphia012:59 San Diego103 rd Dallas249:28 Green Bay103 rd

67 Scoreboard Update NFL Afternoon Games Kansas City2113:19 Oakland174 th Seattle215:52 Arizona233rd Philadelphia05:21 San Diego173 rd Dallas314:09 Green Bay103 rd

68 Scoreboard Update NFL Afternoon Games Kansas City217:40 Oakland204 th Seattle210:24 Arizona263rd Philadelphia014:10 San Diego174 th Dallas34End Green Bay103 rd

69 Scoreboard Update NFL Afternoon Games Kansas City213:12 Oakland274 th Seattle2813:58 Arizona264 th Philadelphia711:13 San Diego174 th Dallas3410:27 Green Bay174 th

70 Scoreboard Update NFL Afternoon Games Kansas City211:20 Oakland274 th Seattle287:02 Arizona264 th Philadelphia76:20 San Diego244 th Dallas374:10 Green Bay174 th

71 Scoreboard Update NFL Afternoon Games Kansas City21 Oakland27F Seattle282:00 Arizona264 th Philadelphia71:56 San Diego314 th Dallas370:18 Green Bay174 th

72 Scoreboard Update NFL Afternoon Games Kansas City21 Oakland27F Seattle280:28 Arizona264 th Philadelphia7 San Diego31F Dallas37 Green Bay17F

73 Scoreboard Update NFL Afternoon Games Kansas City21 Oakland27F Seattle28 Arizona26F Philadelphia7 San Diego31F Dallas37 Green Bay17F

74 NFL Games – Final Scores Jacksonville24 New York Jets13F Denver16 Washington17F Cincinnati21 Pittsburgh27F Detroit10 Minnesota45F Atlanta34 Carolina24F Tampa Bay21 Miami24F / OT New Orleans58 St. Louis13F Buffalo13 Tennessee31F Kansas City21 Oakland27F Philadelphia7 San Diego31F Seattle28 Arizona26F Dallas37 Green Bay17F


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