1. The Construction Industry in 2010 Dr Peter Stafford Construction Industry Federation

2. Overview Lessons from the past Sectoral outlooks 2010 as critical juncture in the industry Do Something vs Do Nothing

3. Economic Context: Recession

4. Housing-led Construction Growth

5. Collapse in housebuilding

6. Stamp Duty 14% of all tax in 2006 - 2% of all tax in 2009

7. €17.2bn cut in capital investment

8. Do Nothing: Job losses YearTurnoverEmployment*Job Losses Q1 2007€38.5 bn401,240 Dec 2008 (e)€27.8 bn302,00099,240 Dec 2009 (e)€ 16.9 bn210,000191,240 Dec 2010 (e)€ 12.4 bn147,000254,240 Dec 2011(e)€ 10.2 bn126,000275,240

9. Actual / Optimum Construction Output

10. Construction Employment

11. Do Something: Infrastructure Bonds Stimulus Package€5 bn Total Jobs Created70,000 Tax Take @ €15k pp€1.3 bn Social Welfare Saved (@ €18.5k pp)€1.3 bn Total Avoided cost€2.6 bn Net Additional cost €2.4 bn Funded by Private Pension Funds (€2bn) & EIB€2.4 bn

12. Conclusion Construction should be 15% of Irish GNP. This re-adjustment in the industry was inevitable. In 2010 and 2011 we will undershoot the optimum size of the industry. There will be more job losses. There are things we can do to prevent that undershoot and bring us back to the optimum levels.