1. An Overview of Business Tendency Surveys Richard Vincent Richard Evans Statistics Canada International Conference on Establishment Surveys Montréal June, 2007

2. Outline 1. Introduction 2. Global Overview of Business Tendency Surveys 3. Business Tendency Surveys in France 4. Business Tendency Survey in Canada 5. Conclusion

3. Introduction Key Question These surveys have many commonalities, yet there are striking differences. Why?

4. Qualities of Business Tendency Surveys RelevantRelevant TimelyTimely Qualitative, but based on informed opinionQualitative, but based on informed opinion Forward looking (focus on next period)Forward looking (focus on next period) ComparableComparable

5. Global Overview of BTSs

6. Industrial Coverage of BTSs Europe Europe ManufacturingManufacturing ConstructionConstruction Retail TradeRetail Trade Other Service IndustriesOther Service Industries Canada Canada ManufacturingManufacturing Traveller AccommodationTraveller Accommodation Purchasing Managers (USA, Europe) Purchasing Managers (USA, Europe) ManufacturingManufacturing ServicesServices

7. Global Overview of BTSs Content Future / current business situation re: ProductionProduction PricesPrices Labour marketLabour market

8. Business Tendency Surveys BTS in Canada Manufacturing BCS Since 1976 Since 1976 Quarterly Quarterly Stratified sample of 10,000 est. Stratified sample of 10,000 est. 2 pages 2 pages Three sections Three sections ImpedimentsImpediments Current conditions (last quarter)Current conditions (last quarter) Future conditions (next quarter)Future conditions (next quarter)

9. BTS in Canada Manufacturing BCS Well respected as leading indicator Well respected as leading indicator Two financial institutions ‘repackage’ manufacturing BCS and release Two financial institutions ‘repackage’ manufacturing BCS and release Much media attention Much media attention Can influence value of Cdn $ Can influence value of Cdn $

10. BTS in Canada

11. Manufacturing BTSs and the Canadian Statistical System Not required as input into System of National Accounts Not required as input into System of National Accounts Considered during analysis of composite leading indicators Considered during analysis of composite leading indicators Supported by Department of Finance and Bank of Canada Supported by Department of Finance and Bank of Canada

12. BTS in Canada Quarterly Business Conditions Survey for the Traveller Accommodation industry Quarterly Business Conditions Survey for the Traveller Accommodation industry Developed in partnership with Canadian Tourism Commission; Ontario Ministry of Tourism is now key supporterDeveloped in partnership with Canadian Tourism Commission; Ontario Ministry of Tourism is now key supporter Released for the first time: May 16, 2005 (Q2)Released for the first time: May 16, 2005 (Q2) Stratified sample of 2,500 establishmentsStratified sample of 2,500 establishments 2 pages, qualitative (comparable to Manufacturing BCS)2 pages, qualitative (comparable to Manufacturing BCS) Garnered much media coverageGarnered much media coverage Used by National Tourism Indicators; Composite Leading IndicatorUsed by National Tourism Indicators; Composite Leading Indicator Pilot surveys of BCS for Arts, Heritage, & Recreation Pilot surveys of BCS for Arts, Heritage, & Recreation

13. BTS in Canada Why a BTS on Traveller Accommodation Surrogate for tourism sector Surrogate for tourism sector Industry suffers from severe slowdowns and shocks; at the cusp of the business cycle Industry suffers from severe slowdowns and shocks; at the cusp of the business cycle Client interest in: Client interest in: forward looking indicators/intelligenceforward looking indicators/intelligence ImpedimentsImpediments Evidence based decision making for policy and marketingEvidence based decision making for policy and marketing Advocacy; e.g., media attentionAdvocacy; e.g., media attention Policy makingPolicy making Used by National Tourism Indicators; Composite Leading Indicator Used by National Tourism Indicators; Composite Leading Indicator

14. BTS in Canada – Why new survey? Tourism demand in Canada by product

15. BTS in Canada-- Why new survey? Change in Traveller Accommodation Revenues, Yr/Yr

16. BTS in Canada Why new survey?

17. BTS in Canada– Results Traveller Accommodation Outlook for Occupancy Rates Balance of Opinion (0=neutral)

18. BTS in Canada– Results Traveller Accommodation Outlook for Average Daily Room Rate Balance of Opinion (0=neutral)

19. BTS in Canada– Results Traveller Accommodation Business Impediments Q4 2006

20. BTS in Canada– Results Traveller Accommodation Public Health and Safety no longer a worry

21. BTS in Canada– Results Traveller Accommodation ‘Canada’s reputation’ increasingly important

22. BTS in France Institut national de la statistique et des etudes economiques (Insee) Institut national de la statistique et des etudes economiques (Insee) Extensive array of surveys Extensive array of surveys Since 1952 Since 1952

23. BTS in France Some features 1-3 pages 1-3 pages 1000 to 5000 respondents 1000 to 5000 respondents Results in overall balance of opinion significant to 2 to 3 points Results in overall balance of opinion significant to 2 to 3 points

24. BTS in France Some features (cont’) Sectoral surveys Sectoral surveys Thematic surveys Thematic surveys

25. BTS in France Partial list of Surveys [LIST HERE] [LIST HERE]

26. BTS in France Examples [show very detailed questions on questionnaires] [show very detailed questions on questionnaires]

27. BTS in France Examples (cont’) [show example of outputs] [show example of outputs]

28. BTS in France Examples (cont’) [show example of European outputs] [show example of European outputs]

30. Main Differences between Canadian and French BTS programs Different emphasis on production impediments Different emphasis on production impediments Better coverage in France Better coverage in France

31. Conclusion Reasons why Canadian and French BTS programs are different Different mandates, client demandDifferent mandates, client demand Different pressures to harmonizeDifferent pressures to harmonize

32. Conclusion Different mandates: Insee has a mandate to forecast GDP Insee has a mandate to forecast GDP 2 quarters forward2 quarters forward Highly regardedHighly regarded This generates an internal demandThis generates an internal demand Statistics Canada does not Statistics Canada does not Different focus:Different focus: E.g., complete set of input-output accounts by province E.g., complete set of input-output accounts by province Extensive suite of largely survey-based annual surveys to support the latter Extensive suite of largely survey-based annual surveys to support the latter

33. Conclusion Different mandates, different priorities Canada: surveys that produce best possible quantitative current indicators for GDP Canada: surveys that produce best possible quantitative current indicators for GDP Survey-based Survey-based Less financial pressure to use administrative data sources Less financial pressure to use administrative data sources No influential internal client for qualitative BTS No influential internal client for qualitative BTS However, an external client for its traveler accommodation survey However, an external client for its traveler accommodation survey

34. Conclusion Different mandates, different priorities (cont’) France: surveys that produce best possible qualitative leading indicators for GDP forecasts France: surveys that produce best possible qualitative leading indicators for GDP forecasts Influential internal client Influential internal client All survey-based All survey-based Mandatory Mandatory Current indicators are comparatively less important, greater financial pressures to use administrative data sources Current indicators are comparatively less important, greater financial pressures to use administrative data sources

35. Conclusion Different international pressures to harmonize Why are such differences “tolerated”? Why are such differences “tolerated”? No pressures to harmonize in the sense the different iterations of the SNA 93 have exercised strong harmonizing influence since the 1950’sNo pressures to harmonize in the sense the different iterations of the SNA 93 have exercised strong harmonizing influence since the 1950’s Perception that BTS are “less important”, especially by agencies that do not publish forecastsPerception that BTS are “less important”, especially by agencies that do not publish forecasts CIRET’s recommendations are not nearly as binding CIRET’s recommendations are not nearly as binding There are strong pressures from within the EU There are strong pressures from within the EU But Canada is not a member!But Canada is not a member!

36. Conclusion The Future: what would need to change? A change in mandate A change in mandate International will and desire to “compel” countries to adhere to an international standard (in the manner of the SNA) International will and desire to “compel” countries to adhere to an international standard (in the manner of the SNA) Client financial commitment Client financial commitment