1. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 1 Managerial Economics in a Global Economy, 5th Edition by Dominick Salvatore Chapter 10 Game Theory and Strategic Behavior

2. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 2 Strategic Behavior Decisions that take into account the predicted reactions of rival firms –Interdependence of outcomes Game Theory –Players –Strategies –Payoff matrix

3. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 3 Strategic Behavior Types of Games –Zero-sum games –Nonzero-sum games Nash Equilibrium –Each player chooses a strategy that is optimal given the strategy of the other player –A strategy is dominant if it is optimal regardless of what the other player does

4. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 4 Advertising Example 1

5. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 5 Advertising Example 1 What is the optimal strategy for Firm A if Firm B chooses to advertise?

6. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 6 Advertising Example 1 What is the optimal strategy for Firm A if Firm B chooses to advertise? If Firm A chooses to advertise, the payoff is 4. Otherwise, the payoff is 2. The optimal strategy is to advertise.

7. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 7 Advertising Example 1 What is the optimal strategy for Firm A if Firm B chooses not to advertise?

8. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 8 Advertising Example 1 What is the optimal strategy for Firm A if Firm B chooses not to advertise? If Firm A chooses to advertise, the payoff is 5. Otherwise, the payoff is 3. Again, the optimal strategy is to advertise.

9. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 9 Advertising Example 1 Regardless of what Firm B decides to do, the optimal strategy for Firm A is to advertise. The dominant strategy for Firm A is to advertise.

10. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 10 Advertising Example 1 What is the optimal strategy for Firm B if Firm A chooses to advertise?

11. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 11 Advertising Example 1 What is the optimal strategy for Firm B if Firm A chooses to advertise? If Firm B chooses to advertise, the payoff is 3. Otherwise, the payoff is 1. The optimal strategy is to advertise.

12. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 12 Advertising Example 1 What is the optimal strategy for Firm B if Firm A chooses not to advertise?

13. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 13 Advertising Example 1 What is the optimal strategy for Firm B if Firm A chooses not to advertise? If Firm B chooses to advertise, the payoff is 5. Otherwise, the payoff is 2. Again, the optimal strategy is to advertise.

14. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 14 Advertising Example 1 Regardless of what Firm A decides to do, the optimal strategy for Firm B is to advertise. The dominant strategy for Firm B is to advertise.

15. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 15 Advertising Example 1 The dominant strategy for Firm A is to advertise and the dominant strategy for Firm B is to advertise. The Nash equilibrium is for both firms to advertise.

16. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 16 Advertising Example 2

17. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 17 Advertising Example 2 What is the optimal strategy for Firm A if Firm B chooses to advertise?

18. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 18 Advertising Example 2 What is the optimal strategy for Firm A if Firm B chooses to advertise? If Firm A chooses to advertise, the payoff is 4. Otherwise, the payoff is 2. The optimal strategy is to advertise.

19. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 19 Advertising Example 2 What is the optimal strategy for Firm A if Firm B chooses not to advertise?

20. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 20 Advertising Example 2 What is the optimal strategy for Firm A if Firm B chooses not to advertise? If Firm A chooses to advertise, the payoff is 5. Otherwise, the payoff is 6. In this case, the optimal strategy is not to advertise.

21. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 21 Advertising Example 2 The optimal strategy for Firm A depends on which strategy is chosen by Firms B. Firm A does not have a dominant strategy.

22. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 22 Advertising Example 2 What is the optimal strategy for Firm B if Firm A chooses to advertise?

23. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 23 Advertising Example 2 What is the optimal strategy for Firm B if Firm A chooses to advertise? If Firm B chooses to advertise, the payoff is 3. Otherwise, the payoff is 1. The optimal strategy is to advertise.

24. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 24 Advertising Example 2 What is the optimal strategy for Firm B if Firm A chooses not to advertise?

25. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 25 Advertising Example 2 What is the optimal strategy for Firm B if Firm A chooses not to advertise? If Firm B chooses to advertise, the payoff is 5. Otherwise, the payoff is 2. Again, the optimal strategy is to advertise.

26. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 26 Advertising Example 2 Regardless of what Firm A decides to do, the optimal strategy for Firm B is to advertise. The dominant strategy for Firm B is to advertise.

27. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 27 Advertising Example 2 The dominant strategy for Firm B is to advertise. If Firm B chooses to advertise, then the optimal strategy for Firm A is to advertise. The Nash equilibrium is for both firms to advertise.

28. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 28 Prisoners’ Dilemma Two suspects are arrested for armed robbery. They are immediately separated. If convicted, they will get a term of 10 years in prison. However, the evidence is not sufficient to convict them of more than the crime of possessing stolen goods, which carries a sentence of only 1 year. The suspects are told the following: If you confess and your accomplice does not, you will go free. If you do not confess and your accomplice does, you will get 10 years in prison. If you both confess, you will both get 5 years in prison.

29. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 29 Prisoners’ Dilemma Payoff Matrix (negative values)

30. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 30 Prisoners’ Dilemma Dominant Strategy Both Individuals Confess (Nash Equilibrium)

31. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 31 Prisoners’ Dilemma Application: Price Competition

32. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 32 Prisoners’ Dilemma Application: Price Competition Dominant Strategy: Low Price

33. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 33 Prisoners’ Dilemma Application: Nonprice Competition

34. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 34 Prisoners’ Dilemma Application: Nonprice Competition Dominant Strategy: Advertise

35. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 35 Prisoners’ Dilemma Application: Cartel Cheating

36. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 36 Prisoners’ Dilemma Application: Cartel Cheating Dominant Strategy: Cheat

37. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 37 Extensions of Game Theory Repeated Games –Many consecutive moves and countermoves by each player Tit-For-Tat Strategy –Do to your opponent what your opponent has just done to you

38. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 38 Extensions of Game Theory Tit-For-Tat Strategy –Stable set of players –Small number of players –Easy detection of cheating –Stable demand and cost conditions –Game repeated a large and uncertain number of times

39. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 39 Extensions of Game Theory Threat Strategies –Credibility –Reputation –Commitment –Example: Entry deterrence

40. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 40 Entry Deterrence Credible Entry Deterrence No Credible Entry Deterrence

41. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 41 Entry Deterrence Credible Entry Deterrence No Credible Entry Deterrence

42. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 42 International Competition Boeing Versus Airbus Industrie

43. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 43 Sequential Games Sequence of moves by rivals Payoffs depend on entire sequence Decision trees –Decision nodes –Branches (alternatives) Solution by reverse induction –From final decision to first decision

44. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 44 High-price, Low-price Strategy Game

45. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 45 High-price, Low-price Strategy Game X X

46. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 46 High-price, Low-price Strategy Game X X X Solution: Both firms choose low price.

47. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 47 Airbus and Boeing

48. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 48 Airbus and Boeing X X

49. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 49 Airbus and Boeing X X X Solution: Airbus builds A380 and Boeing builds Sonic Cruiser.

50. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 50 Integrating Case Study