1. Popularity and Conformity Predicting Romantic Relationship Quality, Academic Achievement, and Problem Behavior from Ages 13 to 20 Joseph P. Allen Amanda Hare Erin Miga University of Virginia Collaborators: Maryfrances Porter, Ph.D. Penny Marsh Kathleen McElhaney, Ph.D. F. Christy McFarland Jessica Meyer, Ph.D. Farah Williams Dave Szwedo Katie Little Meredyth Evans Jill Antonishak, Ph.D. Claire Stephenson Mindy Schmidt, Ph.D. Glenda Insabella, Ph.D. Megan Schad Joanna Chango Copies of this and related papers are available at: WWW.TEENRESEARCH.ORG

2. Short- vs. Long-term Implications of Adolescent Social Relationships Adolescence as a Way-station vs. an Endpoint Adolescence as a Way-station vs. an Endpoint Qualities that are positive during early adolescence… Qualities that are positive during early adolescence… May predict either successful or unsuccessful outcomes years later. May predict either successful or unsuccessful outcomes years later. Ingredients for a successful adolescence ≠ ingredients for a successful adulthood. Ingredients for a successful adolescence ≠ ingredients for a successful adulthood. The “High-school Reunion” effect The “High-school Reunion” effect

3. Overarching Question: How do Predictors of Adaptation by the END of Adolescence Differ from Predictors of Adaptation DURING Adolescence? Predictors: Predictors: Popularity Popularity Peer-refusal skills Peer-refusal skills Autonomy & Connection with a Best Friend Autonomy & Connection with a Best Friend Outcomes: Outcomes: Delinquent Behavior Delinquent Behavior Alcohol & Drug Use and Problems Alcohol & Drug Use and Problems Academic Achievement Academic Achievement Long-term success with peers and romantic partners Long-term success with peers and romantic partners

4. Sample 184 Adolescents, their Parents, Best Friends, and Other Friends 184 Adolescents, their Parents, Best Friends, and Other Friends Intensive Interviews and Observations with all parties (Total N over first 8 years ~ 1400). Intensive Interviews and Observations with all parties (Total N over first 8 years ~ 1400). Equal numbers of Males and Females Equal numbers of Males and Females Assessed Annually, Ages 13 to 20 Assessed Annually, Ages 13 to 20 Socio-economically Diverse (Median Family Income= $40- $60K) Socio-economically Diverse (Median Family Income= $40- $60K) 31% African American; 69% European American 31% African American; 69% European American Very Low Attrition (< 1%) Very Low Attrition (< 1%)

5. Measures: Popularity Sociometric Procedure: Sociometric Procedure: Peers nominate others Peers nominate others “Who would you most like to spend time with on a Saturday evening.” 10 names for each list Popularity = # Times mentioned on someone’s list Popularity = # Times mentioned on someone’s list Each teen rated by other teens in the same grade in school (approximately 125 raters for each teen). Each teen rated by other teens in the same grade in school (approximately 125 raters for each teen). Teens have been together since 5 th grade and stay intact through high school graduation. Teens have been together since 5 th grade and stay intact through high school graduation. 1 year test-retest stability r =.77 1 year test-retest stability r =.77

6. Popularity/likeability vs. Social Status Social Status Social Status Being “looked up to” Being “looked up to” Who teens think is popular (not necessarily who they like) Who teens think is popular (not necessarily who they like) Preference based popularity/likeability Preference based popularity/likeability Actually being “liked” Actually being “liked” By a broad group, not just by a single close friend. By a broad group, not just by a single close friend. We focus on the latter measure: preference-based popularity/likeability. We focus on the latter measure: preference-based popularity/likeability.

7. Correlates of Popularity/Likeability at Age 13 Better Friendship Quality Better Friendship Quality Higher Quality of observed relationship with mothers Higher Quality of observed relationship with mothers Higher Ego Development Higher Ego Development Greater Attachment Security Greater Attachment Security Conclusion: Popularity is a good thing at age 13… But does it predict good things in the long run? ( Allen et al., 2005, Child Development)

8. The Popularity-Socialization Effect: Popular teens will be highly attuned to socializing influences within their peer group. This will reflect their advanced social development… but will include forces socializing teens in both positive ways, but also toward some types of deviant behavior that are normative for early adolescents.

9. Measures: Minor Delinquency Self-report of Delinquency Scale (Elliott, Huizinga, & Menard, 1989) Items include: shoplifting items worth less than $50 sneaking into a movie theater without paying minor vandalism

10. Change in Levels of Minor Illegal Behavior

12. Minor Delinquency Minor Delinquency Popularity Age 13Age 14.23**.42*** Predicting Relative Changes in Minor Delinquency From Baseline Popularity (Ages 13 to 14) Popular teens show greater relative increases in minor delinquency from 13 to 14. (Allen, Porter, McFarland, Marsh & McElhaney, 2005, Child Development)

13. Change in Levels of Minor Illegal Behavior ?

17. Socialization appears to have ultimately taken a turn for the better… At least for delinquency What about other behaviors?

18. Change in Percentage of Youths Who Have Recently Used Alcohol/Marijuana (Allen, 2005, Teen Driving Workshop/ National Academy of Science)

19. Change in Percentage of Youths Who Have Recently Used Alcohol/Marijuana (Allen, 2005, Teen Driving Workshop/ National Academy of Science)

20. Change in Percentage of Youths Who Have Recently Used Alcohol/Marijuana (Allen, 2005, Teen Driving Workshop/ National Academy of Science)

21. Change in Percentage of Youths Who Have Recently Used Alcohol/Marijuana (Allen, 2005, Teen Driving Workshop/ National Academy of Science)

22. Change in Percentage of Youths Who Have Recently Used Alcohol/Marijuana (Allen, 2005, Teen Driving Workshop/ National Academy of Science)

23. Change in Percentage of Youths Who Have Recently Used Alcohol/Marijuana (Allen, 2005, Teen Driving Workshop/ National Academy of Science)

24. Frequency of Alcohol Use in Past Month (Allen, 2005, Teen Driving Workshop/ National Academy of Science)

25. Frequency of Alcohol Use in Past Month (Allen, 2005, Teen Driving Workshop/ National Academy of Science)

26. Frequency of Alcohol Use in Past Month (Allen, 2005, Teen Driving Workshop/ National Academy of Science)

27. Frequency of Alcohol Use in Past Month (Allen, 2005, Teen Driving Workshop/ National Academy of Science)

28. Measures: Problems Related to Alcohol Use Self-report problems occurring with alcohol use (CORE Survey, Presley & Meilman, 1994) 19 problems ranging from driving under the influence to injuring others to arrests to arguments and hangovers.

29. Alcohol Problems (Age 19/20) **

30. Long-term Predictions from Popularity in Early Adolescence Increasing Delinquency at first… Increasing Delinquency at first… But with a return to group mean levels by Age 20 But with a return to group mean levels by Age 20 Adolescent socialization processes running their course Adolescent socialization processes running their course Increasing Alcohol Use… Increasing Alcohol Use… And use remains high, with significant alcohol problems developing by Age 20 And use remains high, with significant alcohol problems developing by Age 20 Adolescent Socialization processes creating long-term risks Adolescent Socialization processes creating long-term risks

31. Change in Grade Point Average

32. Measures: Friendship Quality Total Friendship Quality as reported by the Best Friend of Target Teen Friendship Quality Scale (Parker & Asher, 1993) 40-item scale assessing validation, conflict resolution, companionship, conflict & betrayal, etc.

33. Friendship Quality (Best Friend Report)

37. Romantic Relationships: Assessed via Network of Relationships Inventory (teen report) Assessed via Network of Relationships Inventory (teen report) Relationship duration of 3 months or longer between ages of 17-19. Relationship duration of 3 months or longer between ages of 17-19.

38. Romantic Relationship Quality (Ages 17-19) No Differences Between Popular and Less Popular Teens

39. Percentage of Teens in Significant Romantic Relationship ** Popular Teens are More Likely to Have a Romantic Relationship

40. Long-term Predictions from Popularity Heightened delinquent activity that appears to stop around age 20 Heightened delinquent activity that appears to stop around age 20 Heightened levels of alcohol use/abuse that continues to grow through age 20 Heightened levels of alcohol use/abuse that continues to grow through age 20 Higher academic achievement Higher academic achievement Higher Friendship quality (Particularly around transitions) Higher Friendship quality (Particularly around transitions) No effect on romantic relationship quality* No effect on romantic relationship quality*

41. Peer Refusal Skills Parallels Adolescent Problem Inventory (Freedman & McFall, 1978). Parallels Adolescent Problem Inventory (Freedman & McFall, 1978). 10 Hypothetical vignettes describing teens being tempted to engage in deviant behavior. Participants are then told another teen’s deviant response and asked for their response. 10 Hypothetical vignettes describing teens being tempted to engage in deviant behavior. Participants are then told another teen’s deviant response and asked for their response. Audiotaped responses Audiotaped responses Coded for: Ability to competently resist pressure while making it less likely to occur in the future. Coded for: Ability to competently resist pressure while making it less likely to occur in the future. Repeated and summed over 3 years Repeated and summed over 3 years

42. Change in Levels of Minor Illegal Behavior

43. Frequency of Alcohol Use in Past Month (Allen, 2005, Teen Driving Workshop/ National Academy of Science)

44. Alcohol Problems (Age 19/20) ***

45. Change in Grade Point Average

46. Friendship Quality (Best Friend Report) No difference in friendship quality for Hi & Lo Peer Refusers

47. Romantic Relationship Quality No difference in romantic relationship quality for Hi & Lo Peer Refusers

48. The Adolescent “Bind”: Conform to Peers or Conform to Adults? Achieving popularity with peers increases risk for alcohol and drug and legal problems… Achieving popularity with peers increases risk for alcohol and drug and legal problems… but is linked to better friendships and more romantic relationships. but is linked to better friendships and more romantic relationships. Skill at refusing peer temptations is linkd to fewer behavior problems… Skill at refusing peer temptations is linkd to fewer behavior problems… but a lower GPA. but a lower GPA. Neither behavior explains future romantic relationship qualities (i.e., the precursors of adult marriages) Neither behavior explains future romantic relationship qualities (i.e., the precursors of adult marriages)

49. Role of Autonomy AND Relatedness A key social-developmental task: A key social-developmental task: Establish one’s autonomy while learning to maintain and deepen important relationships Establish one’s autonomy while learning to maintain and deepen important relationships Assessed via observations of close-friends handling disagreements at ages 13-15. (Peer Autonomy Task, Allen et al., 2005) Assessed via observations of close-friends handling disagreements at ages 13-15. (Peer Autonomy Task, Allen et al., 2005) Behaviors acknowledging other’s points; validating; carefully listening. Behaviors acknowledging other’s points; validating; carefully listening.

50. Change in Levels of Minor Illegal Behavior No Difference in Illegal Behavior Across Levels of Autonomy & Relatedness

51. Frequency of Alcohol Use in Past Month No Difference in Alcohol Use Across Levels of Autonomy & Relatedness

52. Alcohol Problems (Age 19/20) No Difference in Alcohol Problems Across Levels of Autonomy & Relatedness

53. Change in Grade Point Average Hi Autonomy & Relatedness is Linked to Consistently Higher Academic Achievement

54. Friendship Quality (Best Friend Report) No Effects on Friendship Quality

55. Romantic Relationship Quality ** Strong Predictions from Autonomy & Relatedness at 13 to Later Romantic Relationship Quality

56. Percentage of Teens in Significant Romantic Relationship

57. Summary of Autonomy & Relatedness Findings The one adolescent social trait with NO negative findings. The one adolescent social trait with NO negative findings. Links to: Links to: Higher grades in school Higher grades in school Better romantic relationships Better romantic relationships Without links to: Without links to: Drinking or Deviant Behavior Drinking or Deviant Behavior Only thing missing is a link to friendship quality over time. Only thing missing is a link to friendship quality over time.

58. Limitations Non-experimental nature of data Non-experimental nature of data Examining a limited number of outcomes Examining a limited number of outcomes NOT following teens all the way into adulthood (yet). NOT following teens all the way into adulthood (yet).

59. Conclusions Adolescence presents a difficult social bind: Adolescence presents a difficult social bind: What provides good short-term relationships with peers isn’t necessarily what pleases adults. What provides good short-term relationships with peers isn’t necessarily what pleases adults. What pleases adults—standing up to peer pressure—is associated with lower grades in school. What pleases adults—standing up to peer pressure—is associated with lower grades in school. Troubling Social Role of Alcohol Use Troubling Social Role of Alcohol Use Growing evidence that the key social task of adolescence is negotiating autonomy while maintaining relationships. Growing evidence that the key social task of adolescence is negotiating autonomy while maintaining relationships. Kids who pull it off at 13 are on a very positive trajectory Kids who pull it off at 13 are on a very positive trajectory Copies of this and related papers are available at: www.TeenResearch.org

60. Conclusions Need to Move Beyond Markers of Transient Success in Adolescence Need to Move Beyond Markers of Transient Success in Adolescence Adolescence as a different environment than adulthood Adolescence as a different environment than adulthood The High School Reunion Effect: To understand what’s most important in adolescent development, we need to consider where that development ultimately leads. To understand what’s most important in adolescent development, we need to consider where that development ultimately leads. Copies of this and related papers are available at: www.TeenResearch.org