1. All good things must come to an end….. It looks like there is a lot left, but it won’t last very long-UNLESS substantial non-conventional sources can be economically tapped, or we have the ability to economically tap reserves that are more difficult and expensive to tap It takes about 11 years from the time an oil reserve is discovered until the oil reaches production. – This is an extremely important point-”drill now” does not reduce your cost at the pump tomorrow, maybe in 11 years……. Also, the production of any energy resource has to be economically feasible; it can’t take more energy to get the energy produced than the energy itself produces. Q ∞ denotes the amount of a resource available for all time, until it is exhausted

2. M.K. Hubbart: A prediction of petroleum production Predicted Q ∞ to be 165 X 10 9 barrels of oil for the US in 1956 (this did not include Alaska or other “non-conventional sources). Much smaller value than his contemporaries and he predicted that US oil production would peak between 1966 and 1971 and then fall off, independent of anything the oil industry did. Not a popular prediction, but it rang true, US oil production peaked in 1970.

3. Hubbart Curve

4. Graph from Hubbart’s paper

5. In Hubbart’s words……

6. Oil production around the world

7. World Oil Production

8. Petroleum: From the ground to your gas tank What comes out of the ground is not immediately useful It has to be treated, or refined, to produce useful fuels First step is fractional distillation This process separates the various petroleum based products.

9. Fractional Distillation The petroleum is heated to about 400 C which vaporizes it. The vapors are sent into a tower called a fractionating column. As they rise and cool different fuel products condense at different heights.

10. Further treatments What comes out of the distillation process is not quite ready for use yet. It still needs to be modified. For example: Gasoline needs octane added and tar needs heavy molecules removed from it.

11. Treatment processes Thermal cracking: The product is exposed to high temperatures and pressures which break heavy molecules into lighter ones. Catalytic conversion: petroleum vapor is passed over a alumina-silicate mixture or clay which creates a chemical reaction and adds octane to the gas Polymerization: light hydrocarbon molecules are joined and they produce heavier molecules. Natural gas is made into high octane fuels this way.

12. Alkane Hydrocarbons You have heard these names before: methane, ethane, propane, butane, pentane, hexne, heptane, octane. Methane and ethane are the main components of natural gas Propane and butane can be liquefied at fairly low pressures, and are well known as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) Pentane, nexane, heptane and octane are volatile liquids. They are used as fuels in internal combustion engines, as they vaporize easily on entry into the combustion chamber without forming droplets, which would impair the uniformity of the combustion. Methane Carbon atom is black, H atom is white Ethane

13. How long? Lots of disagreement here 50-150(300) years Total vs proved resource Maybe a better question is at what point is oil no longer economically viable and will we have an economically viable replacement? Important numbers: United States uses about 700 million gallons of oil every day or 255.5 billion gallons of oil a year. The world uses nearly 3 billion gallons each day. There are 42 gallons in a barrel of oil, so the US uses a little over 6 billion barrels of oil a year

14. US Resources- conventional Arctic National Wildlife Refuge North Dakota –Bakken Oil Field Outer continental shelf(off Pacific, Atlantic and Gulf coasts Some will argue there is enough conventional oil here for 300 more years-assuming current consumption remains the same, we can create the refining capacity and technologies to extract this oil and assuming the oil companies do not sell it overseas to growing, more lucrative markets.

15. Natural gas Used since the 6 th century BCE in China and Japan. They used bamboo pipes to carry it to lights. For the most part, it was considered an annoying by product of petroleum exploration and was often burned off of oil wells. 1821 Fredonia, New York. A pipe provided NG to 30 burners Development was slow due to the lack of pipeline infrastructure During and after WWII, its use became more widespread because it was inexpensive and pipelines were laid across the country.

16. Uses Power plants: gas turbines have a higher efficiency in converting the fuel to power than steam turbines (we will talk about these turbines later). Plants are cheaper to build and more environmentally friendly. Transportation: Use is growing, but limited by range (need to store the fuel in the vehicle under high pressure and there is not a widespread distribution system). Appear to be good prospects for the future if a new source of natural gas can be found

17. Not the solution! Conventional natural gas will not solve our energy problems Most comes from domestic production, as shipping is difficult. US uses 23 trillion scf per year. Methane from coal beds can be used to produce natural gas, which will increase supply somewhat. We have enough for about 30-100 years at current rates of consumption.

18. Coal Formation

19. Coal types Peat: Youngest form of coal, lowest grade, low quality fuel and organic material for gardeners Lignite: 150 million yrs old, 50% carbon content Bituminous: 300 million years old, 50-80% carbon Anthracite: 500 million years old, 95% carbon, hardest and cleanest burning coal.

20. Coal vs Diamonds Diamonds need high temperature and pressure, which is found at large depths in the Earth, usually between 140-190 km deep. Coal mines reach depths of 2000 ft (0.6 km) Don’t form from coal, dating of diamonds shows them to be older than the oldest known plants that existed on the planet and it is unlikely to find coal that deep. Confusion stems from both being high in carbon content