1. Thai capital after the Asian crisis Pasuk Phongpaichit and Chris Baker A Decade After, Bangkok, 12-14 July 2007

2. Thailand: postwar to crisis stable macro management US tutelage natural and human resources immigrant entrepreneurs competitive clientelism high savings and investment export orientation domestic family conglomerates real per capita GDP

3. Crisis macro IMF deflationary package (1 year) consumer stimulus private consumption

4. Finance Collapse of credit culture Surgery on financial institutions Selective rescue Lift bar on foreign investment Regulation, prudence Big four survive Medium and small closed, sold, merged End of relationship banking 5-year shrinkage

5. other overseas government consumer other commercial industry Fig I.5 Distribution of commercial bank lending, 1990-2006 Source: Bank of Thailand

6. real sector No policy to rescue fire-sale of distressed assets hands-off debt restructuring lift equity restrictions in manufacturing selective protection of services

7. Source: Bank of Thailand Fig 1.1 Foreign direct investment, 1970-2006 % of GDP, right scale

8. FDI crisis decade vs boom decade: x 3 in US$ x5 in baht x2 as % of GDP export manufacturing finance construction-related (cement, steel) big retail property services 1988: 122 of top 450 MNCs, 214 projects 2000: 248 of top 500 MNCs, 630 projects

9. pre-crisispost-crisis assemblersc. 12, mostly Thai- majority joint ventures main assemblers c. 100% MNC-owned first-tier (oem parts) c. 400 firms, mix of domestic, JV, and MNC firms 20 domestic groups, rest are MNCs and their international partners second-tier (components) c. 500 firms, mostly domestic fdi by MNC international partners suppliersmostly domesticfdi by specialists from Japan, US, Europe Automotive industry

10. Source: Nipon et al., 2002 and corporate websites. Carrefour Big C Tesco Fig 3.1 Number of hypermarket outlets, 1995-2006

11. Companies Quarter of companies de-listed from exchange Quarter of top 50 corporate groups slid to bottom ranks Quarter of top 220 corporate groups disappeared

12. Win or lose? Sector and structure Sector manufacturing partner secondary finance Structure authoritarian conglomerate (unreformed kongsi, absolute patriarch, little/no outside professional management, bank-dependent, non-transparent)

13. Impacts Concentration Export dependence Capital market Social development

14. Concentration By MNC buyout/expansion three mega-retail chains two mobile phone suppliers etc. Few winners, many losers effect merger of steel firms top five banks liquor/beer etc

15. Source: Suehiro database Fig 1.5 Top 150 business groups by assets, 2000

16. export dependence Recovery through exports currency depreciated companies reorient to export to replace home market Almost all growth attributable to exports Large and growing share by MNCs Trade:GDP up from 90 to 150%

17. 19992000200120022003 exports5.010.1-2.67.34.2 consumption2.32.72.12.73.5 investment-0.71.10.21.32.3 GDP4.44.82.15.46.7 export %113210*13563 growth accounting Source: Peter Warr, 2005: 30

18. agriculture process industry tech-based industry labour-intensive industry other resource-based industry Fig I. 11 Export shares by sector, 1985-2006

19. Imports Exports Fig I.10 Trade as percent of GDP, 1995-2006

20. capital market Decline in savings and investment credit promotion to boost consumption rising household debt, lower household savings Banks shrink lending to business reorient to consumer Stockmarket no substitute small, radically affected by speculative i/n flows political manipulation values do not reflect company performance

21. Fig I.8 Gross national savings, 1994-2005 Source : NESDB Households Government Business

22. Source: NESDB Fig I.9 Gross domestic investment, 1994-2005 public private

23. other overseas government consumer other commercial industry Fig I.5 Distribution of commercial bank lending, 1990-2006 Source: Bank of Thailand

24. social pattern

25. agriculture urban informal formal industrial white collar other

26. Thank you