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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Kiev retail real estate market overview Results of the 1 st half of 2015
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Kiev retail real estate market overview.……………...……..8 Socio-economic development of Ukraine……………….……3 Market supply …………….………………………………..……….9 Vacancy rate/ attendance in shopping centers…………….14 Rental rates dynamics …………………………………..………15 Demand analysis……….…………..…………..…….…………..16 Tendencies and forecasts …………………………..….………18 2
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Socio-economic development of Ukraine 3
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Socio-economic development of Ukraine 4 Real GDP (1 st quarter of 2015)* -19,3% Inflation** +40% Retail turnover* -24,6% Export * -35,60% Import* -37,10% Industry* -21,8% Agricultural sector -5,40% National debt** +22,2% Real estate development * -31,2% Commissioning of residential properties* -19,2% Average wages** +1% Direct investments -23,1% *according to index of the similar period in 2014 **according to index of December 2014
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Real GDP (I Q 2015) - 19,3% Inflation+ 40%Retail turnover24,7% GDP dynamics, bill.hrn Gross Domestic Product According to the results of the 1 st quarter of 2015 the nominal GDP in Ukraine is 367, 577 bill. hrn., that is 54 bill. hrn. or 15% more than in the similar period of the last year (313, 568 bill. hrn.). Real GDP displays the 19,3% fall, that in money equivalent accounts 296, 712 bill. hrn. Consumer price index Inflation index in Ukraine was 102,2% in May 2015. As a result of hryvnya devaluation and consequently increase in price of imported products, inflation has become 140,1%. Retail turnover Retail turnover for 5 months of the year 2015 is 385,2 bill. hrn., that is 11 % more than in the similar period of the last year. Such a positive dynamics was gained due to national currency devaluation and price increase of food products. But if to compare the retail turnover in 2015 of compared prices in 2014, it is 75,3% volume of January-May 2014, that is 24,7% less. Retail turnover in Ukraine decreased in 15% as a result of 2014, whereas the similar period in 2013 showed the decrease in 2%. Decrease in trade started in May, 2013. The most vivid decrease in retail turnover as compared to the similar period in 2014 was fixed in Lugansk (87%) and Donetsk regions (68%). Absolute leaders of retail turnover volume index remain Kiev (14,591 bill. hrn, Kiev - 45, 065 bill. hrn), Dnepropetrovsk (27,657 bill. hrn), Kharkov (26,6 29 bill. hrn) and Odessa (20,615 bill. hrn) regions. Socio-economic development of Ukraine 5
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Export -35,6%Import -37,1%Volume of residential properties commissioning-19,3% International economic activity Current state of the country has significantly influenced its foreign economic situation. As of April, a 35,6% decrease in products export and 37,1% decrease in import is observed in comparison with the similar period in 2014. As a result of a significant decrease in import, positive surplus in the amount of 59, 7555 mln. dollars is fixed in the country. Dominant position in the structure of the international economic activity take in the following countries: Russia remains the leader (export-11,8%,import–16,2%), China (7,4%, 10,9%), Turkey (7,3%, 2,2%), Italy (5,4%, 2,3%), Poland (5%, 5,5%), India (3,7%, 1,3%), Germany (3,4%, 11,3%), Spain (2,8%, 1,3%). Ukrainian international economic activity Socio-economic development of Ukraine 6 Construction As of May 2015, Ukrainian enterprises have completed construction activities for the value of 15705,7 bill. hrn, that was 31,2 % less than in the similar period in 2014 (in money equivalent 17639,5 bill. hrn). New construction, reconstruction and technical recommission makes 84,9% from the total volume of performed construction activities, major and current repairs – 7,7% and consequently 7,7%.
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Investments Active military actions based on economic recession have suspended business activity in the country, first of all rolling back the plans of foreign investors. Regarding the results of 2014 investment volume was cut in 23%, in nominal equivalent is 45 916 bill.dollars (accrued results from the beginning of investment). Dynamics of direct foreign investments into Ukraine WEF ranking According to WEF data, Ukraine has reinforced rankings in the world competitiveness index GCI (WEF), going up to 76 from former 82. One of the main factors of positive tendency is the change of the government of Ukraine and its actions towards European integration. Categories 2014 Conduct of business96 Enterprises registration76 Obtaining a building/construction permits70 Joining electric services185 Property registration59 Receiving a loan17 Minority investors protection109 Imposition of taxes108 International business154 Contract performance security43 Non-solvency permit142 Competitiveness index of Ukraine WEF ranking Economy of Ukraine in Doing Business ranking Socio-economic development of Ukraine 7
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Industry In May 2015 compared to the last month and May 2014, industrial products index became 99,8% and 79,3%, and as a result of January- May 2015 - 78,8%. In raw materials industry and quarries development in comparison with January-May 2014, industrial products index makes 74,5%, processing industry - 79,5%, supply and distribution of electricity, gas and air conditioning- 84,4%. Dynamics of industry index,% National debt Total amount of national and guarantee debt of Ukraine as of May 2015 was 67,660 billion dollars, in hryvnya equivalent - 1,424 trillion hrn. In the structure of national and guarantee debt the internal debt makes 35% from the total debt or 508,137 mln. hrn, the external one – 65% or 915 990,412 hrn. Dynamics of the change in exchange rate Correspondence of internal and external debt, mln. hrn. Socio-economic development of Ukraine 8
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Retail real estate market overview Kiev 1 st half of 2015 9
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Key figures of Kiev retail real estate market 10
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 2 shopping centers have been opened in the capital during the 1 st half of the year: Doma center (GLA - 7 000 m2) and Novus (7G Zdolbunovskaya Street), (8200 m2 hypermarket and 5 500 m2 of retail space). As a result, the total market supply as of December 2014 is 1 094 639 m2 of professional rental spaces, having been increased in 2%. Till the end of 2015 a shopping and entertainment center of a large neighborhood type «New Way» is expected to be opened (GLA - 16 200 м2), located in the intersection of Verbitsgogo St./Trostyanetskaya St. and SC at 6 Murmanskaya St. (GLA – 7000 m2). The following projects are planned to be opened in 2016: Retroville, Podol Mall, Respublika, Lavina Mall, Blockbuster Mall, TsUM, SC at Pochtovaya Square with the total leasable area around 496 579m2. Total supply, sq. m 1 094 639 New supply 2014, sq. m20 700Perspective supply 2016, sq. m 496 579 Market supply dynamics, thousand sq.m. Shopping centers opened in 2014 SCAddressGLA, sq. mDeveloper Opening Prospekt Krasnoarmeyskaya str./ Krasnotkatskaya str. 41 000Arricano GroupQ3 Atmosfera103 Stolichnoe shosse 30 000De Vision Q3 Doma Cenrter40 Stroiteley str.7 000KDD EngineeringQ4 Aprel Koltsevaya, 19 Lesja Kurbasa Avenue 5 800Local developerQ2 Appetite1, Nikolaya Bazhana Avenue3 420 Ukrainian Investment Alliance Q3 Specialized shopping centers Epicentr20d, Polyarnaya str.70 000Q4 Leroy Merlin26, Saperno-Slobodskaya str.12 500 Shopping centers opening in 2015 Doma Center40, Stroiteley str.7000Local developerQ1 Novus7g, Zdolbunovskaya str.13700-Q2 New LifeVerbitskogo str.16 200Local developerQ4 Darynok6, Murmanskaya str.7 000Local developerQ4 Shopping MallBazhana Avenue2400Local developerQ4 Shopping centers opening in 2016 Respublika1a, Koltsevaya doroga135 000К.А.Н. Developmentis specified Blockbuster Mall36, Moskovskiy Avenue100 000Megalineis specified Lavina MallAkademika Palladina Av.127 500Megalineis specified RetrovillePravdy Avenue91 254 Stolitsa Groupis specified TsUM38, Kreshatik str.20 000Esta holdingQI Podol Mal23, Elenovskaya str.13 825Building Invest Groupis specified Shopping mall at Pochtovaya Square Pochtovaya Square9 000Local developerQ2Q2 Total496 579 11 Kiev retail real estate market supply
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Perspective supplies of rental spaces 2017-2018 Shopping centerAddressGLADeveloperOpening Happy MallOnufriya Trutenko str.42 000Liko-Holding2017 HARTZZlatoustovskaya str.68 000Budhaus Group2017 Lukyanovka7-7а, Degtyarevskaya str.47 052Arricano Group2017 Manhattan Mall1, Inzhenernaya str.69 200Forum Evolutionproject VyrlitsaNikolaya Bazhana Avenue140 000ХХI centuryon hold River mall 10, 14, Dneprovskaya Naberezhnaya str. 55 000Local developeron hold Victoria2, Nikolaya Vasilenka str.54 300Viktoriyaon hold Kyiv mallPetra Grigorenka Avenue75 400Diliseon hold AuchanZdolbunovskaya str.55 000Immochan Ukraineproject Ocean MallHorkogo str.45 000KAN Developmentproject Gorky Park52-54, Horkogo str.64 500 Silver Sky Development project Gorodok (2 turn)23а Moskovskiy Avenue29 650KEMZ Svarkaproject Petrovka Mall10, Moskovskiy Avenue65 360Tiko Constructionproject Nivki CityPobedy Avenue74 036Local Developerproject Univer CityVladimirskaya str.18 700Kievgorstroy Investproject Kiev E95 Outlet (1 turn)Odesskoe shosse18 525Evo Land Development project SC on Sklyarenko str. Syretskaya str./ Sklyarenko str. 15 000Local developer2016 Avenue 48, Kosmonavta komarova str. 39 000 Dragon & Tiko- Construction 2016 SC on Geroev Dnepra Subway station Geroev Dnepra 7 800Local developer2016 According to ICSC classification, except for shopping centers with the area less than 5000 sq. m and stand-alone super- and hypermarkets, the total area of professional capital shopping centers is 1 094 639 sq. m, that corresponds to the indicator 381,1 sq. m per 1000 residents according to the degree of saturation of high-quality retail spaces. About 20 shopping center projects with the total leasable area of about 983 523 м2 with different percentage of completion (design, construction start, construction on hold) are announced to be opened in Kiev in 2017-2018. Announced super-regional Entertainment and Shopping Malls are the main objects of successful development for Ukrainian and international retail chains. Their commissioning will lead to qualitative market growth and (in case the condition of human wellbeing improves) will contribute to the further expansion of international retailers. Market saturation, ppl./1000 sq. m 12 Kiev retail real estate market supply
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Действующие торговые центры Киева Regional Shopping Malls Address Year of opening GLA, sq. m Dream TownObolonskiy Ave.200981 000 Ocean Plaza174, Horkogo St..201270 000 Sky Mall2, Generala Vatutina Ave.200767 000 Karavan12. Lugovaya St.200844 000 Community Center Address Year of opening GLA, sq. m Bolshevik6b, Vadima Hetmana St.200837 000 Gulliver1а, Sportivnaya Sq.201345 200 Prospect Krasnohvardeyskaya St./Krasnotkatskaya St. 201441 400 Marmelade154, Borshchagovskaya St.201340 000 Art Mall37, Akademika Zabolotnogo St.201337 000 Promenada Center17-21, Bahhoutovskaya St.200334 000 Promenada Park4, Bolshaya Okruzhnaya St.200932 000 Gorodok23а, Moskovskiy Ave.20037 000 «Ukraina» dept.store3, Pobedy Ave.200323 000 Rayon4, Nikolaya Lavrukhina St.201223 000 Arcadia10a, Dneprovskaya Nab. St.200822 000 Magellan13b, Akademika Hlushkova St.200321 600 Kvadrat36, Perova Ave.200819 000 Globus1, Nezavisimosti Sq.200218 579 Alta Center15, Moskovskiy Ave.200417 000 Arcadia154, Borshchagovskaya St.200717 000 Metropolis12, Malinovskogo St.200515 284 Silver BreezeDneprovskaya Nab. St.201314 600 MetrogradBolshaya Vasilkovskaya St.200211 000 Piramida4, Mishuhi St.200412 000 Plazma20b, Moskovskiy Ave.200612 000 Alladin3-5, Hrishko St.200410 030 Atmosfera103, Stolichnoe shosse St.201430 000 Arena CityKrasnoarmeyskaya St./Basseynaya20058 000 KOMOD4, Lunacharsoho St.20077 647 DOMA center4, Stroiteley St.2014/20157000 Neighborhood Shopping Mall Address Year of opening GLA, кв. м VMB136, Pobedy Ave.20045 000 Kvadrat20, Hnata Yury St.200311 502 Polyarnyi2, Maiorova St.20138 630 Olimpiyskiy72, Bolshaja Vasilkovskaya St.20048 250 Europort15А, Lukashevicha St.20054 195 Interval Plaza143/2, Bolshaya Vasilkovskaya St.20047 874 Neighborhood Shopping Mall Address Year of opening GLA, sq. m Kvadrat2, Belorusskaya St.20026 000 InSilver3, Sribnokilskaya St.20115 909 Darnitsa2/1, Vossoedineniya Ave.20085 830 Specialized Shopping Mall Address Year of opening GLA, sq. m Detskiy Mir3, Andreya Malyshka St.19878 000 Blockbuster34v, Moskovskiy Ave200824 750 4ROOM6, Petropavlovskaya St.200924 000 Arax110, Bolshaya Okruzhnaya St.200916 000 Ultramarine1a, Uritskoho St.200415 000 Manufaktura2, Novoobukhovskoe shosse201315 000 Diamant14Е, Petropavlovskaya St.201311 250 Makros16b, Moskovskiy Ave.20048 286 Dom mebeli23, Druzhby Narodov Blvd.198416 000 B-5252, Bratislavskaya St.200812 003 Domosfera101, Stolichnoe shosse200924 500 Mandarin Plaza4, Basseynaya St.20039 400 DIYAddress Year of opening GLA, sq. m Epicentr20d, Polyarnaya St.201470 000 Epicentr4, Viskoznaya St.200811 000 Epicentr6, Khrustalnaya St.200812 000 Novaya Liniya65/1, Balzaka St.20046 795 Novaya Liniya8,Odesskoe shosse200513 131 Metro26v, Moskovskiy Ave.20059 500 Metro2а, Saburova St.20099 500 Metro43, Petra Grigorenka Ave.20049 500 Metro1v, Bolshaya Okruzhnaya St.20039 500 Auchan15а, Moskovskiy Ave.200815 000 Auchan6, Berkovetskaya St.200915 660 Epicentr11, Bratislavskaya St.200812 000 Epicentr1b, Bolshaya Okruzhnaya St.200530 000 NOVUS7a, Akademika Palladina Ave.20104 008 Leroy Merlin17а, Polyarnaya St.201013 000 Leroy Merlin3v, Brovarskoy Ave.2013~10 000 Leroy Merlin26, Saperno-Slobodskaya St.2014~10 000 Epicentr40, Petra Hrigorenko Ave.200543 000 NOVUS4d, Krasnozvezdnyi Ave.20138 800 NOVUS1a, Krasnohvardeyskaya St.20136 000 NOVUS8, Nikolaya Bazhana Ave.20136 500 Epicentr6v, Berkovetskaya St.200956 000 13 Kiev retail real estate market supply
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Regional SC District SC Community SC Free standing hypermarket Specialized SC Regional shopping centers: 1) Dream Town - Obolonskiy Ave. 2) Ocean Plaza – 174, Horkoho St. 3) Sky Mall – 2, Henerala Vatutina Ave. 4) «Караван» - 12, Luhovaya St. Community shopping centers: 5) Bolshevik- 6b, Vadima Hetmana St. 6) Gulliver – 1a, Sportivnaya Sq. 7) Marmelade- 154, Borshchagovskaya St. 8) Art Mall - 37, Akademika Zabolotnogo St. 9) Promenada Center - 17-21, Bahhoutovskaya St 10) Promenada Park – 4, Bolshaya Okruzhnaya St. 11) Gorodok- 23а, Moskovskiy Ave. 12) Department store Ukraina- 3, Pobedy Ave. 13) Rayon – 4, Nikolaya Lavruhina St. 14) Arcadia - 10a, Dneprovskaya Naberezhnaya 15) Magellan- 13b, Akademika Hlushkova St. 16) Kvadrat- 3b, Perova Blvd. 17) Globus- 1, Nezavisimosti Sq. 18) Alta Center- 15, Moskovskiy Ave. 19)Arcadia – 154, Borshchagovskaya St. 20) Metropolis- 12, Malinovskoho St. 21) Silver Breeze - Dneprovskaya Naberezhnaya St. 22) Metrograd- Bolshaya Vasilkovskaya St. 23) Piramida- 4, Mishugi St. 24) Plazma- 20b, Moskovskiy Ave. 25) Alladin- 3-5, Hrishko St. 26) Atmosfera- 103, Stolichnoe shosse 27) Arena City - Krasnoarmeyskaya/ Basseynaya 28) KOMOD – 4, Lunacharskogo St. Neighbourhood shopping centers: 29) VMB – 13 b, Pobedy Ave. 30) Kvadrat- 20, Hnata Yury St. 31) Polyarnyi- 2, Maiorova St. 32) Olimpiyskiy-72, Bolshaya Vasilkovskaya St. 33) Europort- 15а, Lukashevicha St. 34) Interval Plaza- 143/2, Bolshaya Vasilkovskaya St. 35) Kvadrat- 2, Belorusskaya St. 36) InSilver - 3, Sribnokilskaya St. 37) Darnitsa- 2/1, Vossoedinenija Ave Specialized shopping centers: 38) Detskiy mir- 3, Andreya Malyshko St. 39) Blockbuster – 34v, Moskovskiy Ave. 40) 4ROOM - ул. Петропавловская, 6 41) Araks- 110, Bolshaya Okruzhnaya St. 42) Ultramarin- 1а, Uritskogo St. 43) Manufaktura- 2, Novoobukhovskoe shosse 44) Diamant- 14e, Petropavlovskaya St. 45) Makros- 16b, Moskovskiy Ave. 46) Dom mebeli- 23, Druzhby Narodov Ave. 47) B-52 – 52, Bratislavskaya St. 48) Domosfera- 101, Stolichnoe shosse 49) Mandarin Plaza- 4, Basseynany St. 14 Map of existing and announced shopping centers in Kiev
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Kiev shopping centers, announced to be opened in 2016-2018 Respublika** Kiev, Koltsevaya doroga, 1а GLA – 135 000 m 2 Lavina mall** Kiev, Ak,Palladina Ave. GLA – 127 500 m 2 Ocean Mall** Kiev, Horkoho St. GLA – 45 000 m 2 Blockbuster Mall** Kiev, Moskovskiy Ave. GLA – 100 000 m 2 Kiev mall Kiev, P.Hrihorenka Ave. GLA – 75 400 m 2 «Vyrlitsa»* Kiev, N.Bazhana Ave GLA – 140 000 m 2 Petrovka Mall* Kiev, Moskovskiy Ave.,10 GLA – 65 360 m 2 Manhattan Mall** Kiev, Inzhenernaya St., 1а GLA – 69 200 m 2 «TsUM» Kiev, Kreshchatik St., 38 GLA – 20 000 m 2 HARTZ Kiev, Zlatoustovskaya St. GLA – 68 000 m 2 «New Life»** Kiev, Verbitskogo St. GLA – 15 952 m 2 Retroville Kiev, Pravdy Ave. GLA – 91 254 m 2 * UTG - consultant ** UTG – consultant иand exclusive tenant mix agent 15
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Average daily attendance of shopping centers (ppl. per 1000 sq. m, GLA) Attendance According to the results of the 1 st half of 2015 the average daily attendance in Kiev shopping centers is: for regional entertainment and shopping malls - 620 ppl. per 1000 sq. m GLA, for community shopping malls - 766 ppl. per 1000 sq. m GLA. Average indicator - 742 ppl. per 1000 sq. m. We observe a positive tendency of increasing of visitors in regional entertainment and shopping malls. This factor indicates the significant competitiveness of regional shopping centers, able to offer a wide range of product groups and entertainment to a final consumer. The highest attendance rate of about 30 000-40 000 people in weekdays and about 60 000 people in weekends is observed in Ocean Plaza, Sky mall, Dream Town (1 st part), Karavan. Vacancy Average market vacancy rate in the existing shopping centers and shopping entertainment centers continues to be 7,5% during 2012- 2014, due to shrinking plans of development from retailers, complicated economic situation, decrease in consumer demand. For some new big trade facilities the vacancy rate exceeds 50%. Appearance of free leasable areas can be witnessed even in the most successful shopping centers - Ocean Plaza, Dream Town (1 st part), Sky Mall, which are traditionally characterized by the lack of vacant leasable areas. Average vacancy of shopping centers in Kiev, % 16 Attendance and vacancy in Kiev shopping centers
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Арендные ставки в торговых центрах Киева Typical lease terms in shopping centers Lease termFrom 3 to 10 years, for anchors 5-15 years Payment policy Rates are nominated in dollars, payment in hryvnas according to exchange rate, annual indexation at the CPI level. Rate $1 is fixed at the level 18-20UAH DepositFrom 1 to 3 months, possible guarantee for anchors Rental space condition Shell and core, fit-out Rental rates Rental rates at the retail real estate market have significantly changed under the influence of economic and political situation in the country, particularly due to the national currency record devaluation. As a result of the 1 st half of 2015 the average rental rate in Kiev shopping centers for fashion gallery (leasable area 100-200 m2) is 28,6$ / m2/ month net of VAT, that is 35% less than in the similar period of 2014. Moreover, landlords practice «individual agreements»: short-term fixation of dollar rate, repair compensation, etc. Percent of retail turnover is a kind of payment scheme, which is widely spread among anchor tenants – 2-5% and retail gallery operators - 7-15%. Rental rates dynamics in Kiev SC, USD, hrn. Average scope of rental rates in Kiev SC ($/sq. m/month net of VAT and OPEX) 17 Rental rates in Kiev shopping centers
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 BrandCountryShopping Malls Opened in 2014 Pedro del Hierro, fashionSpain Gulliver Sinsay (LPP Group), fashionPoland King Cross, Lvov Keddo, shoe shopGreat BritainKreshchatik St. Vittorio Spernanzoni, shoes shopItalySaksaganskoho St. Twin Set, fashionItalyGulliver Paker, multi-brand shoe shop-Ocean Plaza Coffee Shop CompanyAustriaLvov, Sobornaya Sq., 2 Paul, confectioneryFranceYaroslavov Val St., 26 Calzedonia, underwearItaly Karavan Intimissimi, underwearItaly Karavan Prenatal, maternity wearItalyDream Town Vapiano, chain restaurantsGermany Arena City, Kiev Hnatyuka St., 12, g.Lvov Peacocks, fashion*Great BritainPiramida Fika, fast food outletSwedenStreet retail, Rovno 1 st half of 2015 adL/ADILISIK, fashionTurkey Dream Town Piramida Udress, designer wearUkraineGulliver Bosco*, sports goodsRussiaArt Mall Silenza, underwearItaly Проспект, SkyMall, Dream Town, Gulliver Betty Barclay, fashionGermanyОсеan Plaza Marina Rinaldi *, fashionItalyОсеan Plaza Marella*, fashionItalyОсеan Plaza 18 Demand Despite the economic situation of the country, particularly population solvency, decrease in retailers` turnover, reduce of development plans, we observe a positive tendency and retail real estate market revival. Over the 1 st half of 2015 4 new brands have been entered into the Ukrainian market, among which appear Ukrainian companies, that characterizes the development of this field. It is also worth mentioning that 3 well-known brands have returned: Bosco, Marella, Marina Rinaldi, which shut down their operations in the end of 2014. Negotiations with large-scale international operators continue to be held (IKEA, H&M, Intersport, Cotton, Defacto, etc.), being not introduced at the Ukrainian market yet and whose introduction is expected in 2016 together with commissioning of large-scale projects. Due to tense military situation and combat activities in the eastern Ukraine, most operators wrap up their business in Donetsk and Lugansk regions and move to the more profitable regions (Lvov, Kiev).
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Commissioning of foreign brands in 2013 BrandCountrySC HappylonKazakhstan Ocean Plaza LC WaikikiTurkeyOcean Plaza Armani JeansItalyOcean Plaza CinnabonUSAOcean Plaza Style AvenueCzech RepublicOcean Plaza Z-GenerationFranceOcean Plaza Petit BateauFranceOcean Plaza BebeUSAOcean Plaza YAMAMAYItalyGulliver Versace CollectionItalyGulliver Antica MurrinaItalyGulliver HadleyRussiaOcean Plaza FabsItalyGulliver NauticaUSASky Mall KanzlerGermanyOcean Plaza CamicissimaItalyGulliver Agent ProvocateurUKGulliver Commissioning of foreign brands in 2014 Mango Megastore(Mango, Mango H.E., Mango kids) SpainStreet retail Pedro del HierroSpainGulliver Sinsay (LPP Group)Poland King Cross (Lviv) KeddoUKStreet retail Vittorio SpernanzoniItalyStreet retail Twin SetItalyGulliver Coffee Shop CompanyAustriaStreet retail (Lviv) PaulFranceStreet retail PrenatalItalyDream Town VapianoGermanyArena City PeacocksUKPiramida Paker -Ocean Plaza CazledoniaItalyKaravan IntimissimiItalyKaravan FikaSverigeStreet retail (Rivne) Commissioning of foreign brands in 2012 BrandCountrySC FurlaItalyOcean Plaza Dolce&GabbanaItalyMandarin Plaza MaxMara WeekendItalyOcean Plaza KariRussia- Trussardi JeansItalyOcean Plaza CamperСШАKaravan NapapijriItalyOcean Plaza CinqueItalyOcean Plaza Pepe JeansИспанияOcean Plaza DieselItalyStreet retail ReissUKOcean Plaza Why DenisRomaniaOcean Plaza StrellsonGermanyOcean Plaza SuvariTurkeyOcean Plaza Michael KorsUSAOcean Plaza Marina RinaldiItalyOcean Plaza AtelierFranceOcean Plaza ValentinoItalyStreet retail Piazza ItaliaItalyOcean Plaza W52 JeansPortugalDream Town Gilda TonelliItalyOcean Plaza KFCUSAOcean Plaza S.OliverGermanySky Mall Oviesse kidsItalyUkraine SoocreGreeceOcean Plaza Dynamics of foreign brands introduction at the Ukrainian market 19
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Stakeholders at the fashion retail market of Ukraine 20
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 During the 1 st half of the year 2 new objects have been opened in the Kiev: Doma Center (GLA - 7 000 m2 ) and Novus (8200 m2 hypermarket and 5 500 m2 of leasable areas). As a result, the total market supply in December 2014 come up to 1 094 639 m2 of professional retail spaces, having increased the total supply in 2%. Till the end of 2015 a new shopping and entertainment center of community (large neighborhood) type «New Way» (GLA - 16 200 м2) is expected to be opened in the intersection of Verbitsgogo St./Trostyanetskaya St. and Shopping center at 6 Murmanskaya St. (GLA – 7000 м2). The commissioning of new shopping centers is announced to be postponed for the year 2016: Retroville, Podol Mall, Respublika, Lavina Mall, Blockbuster Mall. Retail real estate market has faced a real challenge: reduction of consumption volumes, retailers` turnover, chain development plans, number of stores, that resulted in 30-70% decrease in rental payment, vacancy growth from 2% to 7,5%, decrease of active tenants from about 1000 to less than 100, and the number of new retailers entering into Ukrainian market was reduced in 2 times; Nowadays market relationships and conditions have stabilized. Tenants have got benefits, that is why they can get maximally flexible terms; Significant difference in rental payment in new and existing shopping centers; Kiev shopping malls managed to maintain currency fixation with the U.S. dollar on a quarterly basis; Retail turnover percent became a compensator of the fall of rental rates; Redistribution of retail turnover and traffic among shopping centers and retailers; Consumer sentiment has been gradually reactivated, but there is no background for a rapid growth; Tenants have become more selective regarding new stores opening due to drop in income and lack of reasonable debt financing; Retailers have optimized their operation, shut down unprofitable stores, the most progressive chains have invested into marketing; For some retail chains this crisis has become a period of active development; New possibilities and niches for Ukrainian manufacturers have appeared in current conditions; Tendency of tenants rotation from street retail objects into the shopping centers; Marketing and promotion have become a crucial factor of successful business in shopping centers; Property management companies have optimized OPEX without reducing the expenses onto objects promotion; Till the end of 2015 a vague rental rates increase is expected due to the fact, that new supply of this year has been postponed for the year 2016; Due to retail real estate market stabilization, perspective rental spaces availability and minimal rental rates, there is a solid background for new franchise introduction; Further real estate development will be connected with the entering of new brands into the Ukrainian market; On the whole the situation in real estate segment will remain stable till the end of this year. 21 Key tendencies of retail real estate market Tendencies and forecasts
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Consumer preference of Kiev residents 22 Ocean Plaza is the leader in the number of unique consumers. 37% of Kiev respondents have bought clothes or shoes in this shopping center at least once for the last half of the year. This mall takes the 1 st place for the loyalty level in Kiev. 22% of respondents consider Ocean Plaza to be the best shopping entertainment center. Dream Town and Sky Mall (27% and 25%, accordingly), show high rates of the number of unique consumers. The loyalty level prevails in Dream Town (17%). 11% of respondents consider Sky Mall to be the best shopping center in the city. Purchases in shopping centers and opinion concerning the best one *Data introduced displays the percentage of the number of unique consumers. Unique consumer presupposes at least one purchase for the last half of the year. Quantitative survey of Kiev residents was held in the way of standardized face to face door enquiry. Sample group contains 800 respondents, maximum accuracy is less than 3,5%.
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Socio-demographic profile of Kiev residents 23 Average monthly family income level of Kiev households makes about 8 647 hrn., 70% of which are accounted for consumer expenses. Decrease in consumer expenses level is accompanied by an increase in utility fees expenses. Average family income level– 8 647 hrn.* People in a family– 3.22 Distribution according to income level*Distribution of family expenses, % Quantitative survey of Kiev residents was held in the way of standardized face to face door enquiry. Sample group contains 800 respondents, maximum accuracy is less than 3,5%.
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Ukraine and regions retail real estate market overview| Results of the 1 st half of 2015 Contacts Vadim Neposedov President vvn@utg.kiev.ua Evgeniya Loktionova Director loktionova@utg.kiev.ua Viktor Oborsky Head of Strategic Consulting Dept. v.oborsky@utg.kiev.ua Dina Katerenuyk Analyst of Strategic Consulting Dept. d.katerenyuk@utg.kiev.ua Ukrainian Trade Guilt (UTG) – is a large scale national real estate consulting company. UTG today – is 55 highly qualified specialists and more than 500 clients. Participation in 450 business projects and more than 700 market researches let us remain a reliable, responsible and competent partner. Working with various types and sizes of real estate at different stages of the project development, we guarantee a highly professional productivity level and individual approach to the tasks assigned by the client. This presentation is a publication bearing a generalized character. Ukrainian Trade Guilt has no liability towards possible loss of any third parties as a result of information use, introduced in this market overview. Any publication of the materials presented in the Report, wholly or partially, is possible only in case the company is mentioned as a data source. Thank you for attention! Contacts Ukrainian Trade Guilt 2a, Mechnikova str. (BC «Parus») Kiev 01601, Ukraine Tel.: (+380 44) 537 23 64 www.utgcompany.com
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