1. ®® 1 The Challenges of Health Care Cost Growth Marilyn Moon American Institutes for Research February 4, 2008

2. ®® 2 Growth in Medicare Spending and Private Health Insurance Premiums per Enrollee for Comparable Benefits Percent

3. ®® 3 Source: 2005 OASDI and Medicare Trustees Report Growth in Medicare Spending as a Share of GDP and in Beneficiaries as a Share of Total Population

4. ®® 4 Source: Medicare Trustees Report, 1997–2000, 2006 6.5% 5.3% 4.4% 4.0% 5.6 % Projected 2025 Medicare Spending as a Share of GDP

5. ®® 5 Source: American Institutes for Research calculations using NHE, CPI, CPS, and Trustees Report, MCBS Out-of Pocket Spending as a Share of Income Among Elderly Beneficiaries

6. ®® 6 Medicare Burden Lowers per Worker GDP Over Time but Substantial Growth Would Remain