1. www.ptvamerica.com South Coast British Columbia Transportation Authority www.translink.bc.ca Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment 12 th TRB Transportation Planning Application Conference, Houston TX, May 2009 Wolfgang Scherr, PTV Ian Fisher, TransLink

2. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Overview > Transit planning in Metro Vancouver and current capacity issues > Dynamic transit assignment – the method > Model development > Application in service planning and operations planning > Conclusions and future directions 2

3. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment 3 Metro Vancouver 21 cities 2.2 million residents, 3.2 million by 2040 > 294 million transit boardings (unlinked) in 2007 > 78 annual transit rides (linked) per resident Major gateway for sea, air and rail freight > No urban freeways/motorways > Prior to 1999 no regional transportation agency

4. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment TransLink Mandate - Integration of: 4 Public Transport Intelligent Transportation Systems Vehicle Emissions Testing Regional Cycling Transportation Demand Management Roads & Bridges

5. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Intermodal Transit Network > ALRT (SkyTrain) > Commuter rail (West Coast Express) > Passenger ferry (SeaBus) > Bus (includes trolleybus) > B-Line (frequent, limited stop) > Community shuttle (minibus) > BRT and LRT (planned) 5

6. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment 6 Rapid Transit Projects in the Region Not pictured: BRT projects

7. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Current SkyTrain Capacity Issues Picture: Broadway Station (SkyTrain), inbound boarding, AM peak. SkyTrain capacity: major subject for application of this model 7

8. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Overview of the Regional Transit Model (RTM) 24-hour operations model (supply), average weekday 24-hour passenger model (demand) > Dynamic assignment > Fixed OD matrices, 800 zones, interface to regional four-stage model Platform: VISUM Applications > Operations planning: routes and patterns, fleet requirements, schedule development > Operations analysis for new rapid transit corridors > Service planning: transit area plans, bus network planning > Visualizations and animations that are comprehensible to lay people History: > Phase A (2006): rail-only model > Phase B (2008): regional model of all modes 8

9. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment The Dynamic Assignment Method VISUM’s “Timetable-based assignment” > Schedule-based method (as opposed to headway-based) > Path-builder uses operations schedule data > The supply model based on individual vehicle runs > Assumption: deterministic flow of vehicles and trains according to schedule > Multiple paths and multiple connections are built using branch&bound > Naturally a time-dynamic method: > Travel conditions vary during the day > Availability of paths varies during the day > Travel time of paths varies during the day > Path choice: > Box-Cox transformed LOGIT > Impedance = IVT + OVT + NT + Delta(early, late) + {correction for similarity of connections} > Vancouver RTM: capacity constraints not included 9

10. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment bus run 2 bus run 3 bus run 1 Schedule-Based Assignment - Schematic 10 space time origindestinationtransfer train run 1 train run 2 train run 3 train run 4 train run 5 bus-only connection intermodal connection

11. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment 11 The 24-Hour Dynamic Assignment 30-minute time-dynamic passenger volumes 2011, colour-coded by v/c-ratio

12. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Model Development – Supply Side 12 Integration of existing operations data Network topology > Nodes and links (NAVTEQ street network) > Stops, stations (resolution as in APC/AVL) Schedule > Data: lines/routes/patterns, run times, runs with departure and arrival times > Existing schedule: imported > Future schedule: edited Fleet model > Vehicle types, capacities, consists > Procedure for block building (vehicle rotations)

13. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Model Development – Demand Side Counts > Station boarding counts – good 24-hour coverage for SkyTrain > Link loading counts: ferry, commuter rail, specific SkyTrain links > Automated Passenger Count System (APC) > All bus lines except community shuttles > Mainly used: total route boardings in hourly increments over 24-hours > APC evaluation tool was still being calibrated itself during our model calibration OD matrices > Four segments : AM, Midday, PM, Evening > Existing demand: derived with matrix calibration and matrix crafting methods > Future demand: > Link to regional four stage model > Future OD demand = existing OD demand + delta forecast Departure time distributions > Derived from counts > Adjusted to meet real-world time distributions all over the region 13

14. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Model Development: Departure Time Distribution > Morning peak of demand: dependent on distance from centre > Afternoon peak: no significant difference observed between markets 14

15. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment 15 Calibration of Time-Dynamics: Model versus Counts Rail stations: centre versus sub-urban

16. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment 16 Calibration of Time-Dynamics: Model versus Counts Suburban bus lines (aggregated APC data for several routes)

17. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Applications (1): Operations Scenarios SkyTrain 17 Study > Develop and analyze multiple scenarios to operate SkyTrain with existing fleet Result > The present operations are optimal with regard to capacity Analysis > Use of aggregated and time-disagregated performance measures

18. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Other Applications (2) Other SkyTrain Studies: > Future maximal capacity for the critical segment BW-WF > Fleet strategy: it is desirable to add 3-car units to the fleet (now only 2-car units) > Operations concepts for future extensions of the SkyTrain system (UBC Line, Evergreen Line) Bus service planning: > Bus network planning in the context of a new rail line > The Canada Line (ALRT) will open in 8/2009 > Bus realignments, bus schedules, bus fleet usage System Analysis: > 2011 short-term forecast: interaction of the existing SkyTrain Lines with the new Canada Line 18

19. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Conclusions (1) Transit supply varies over time > The use of dynamic tools seems natural in transit planning. A lesson learned > It is good to start with a sub-network and later expand to entire region > Early applications allow: > Planners to learn the tool, the data > Stakeholders to give feedback and formulate requirements for the final model Benefits of 24-hour dynamic transit assignment: > Better understanding how demand builds up at congested spots > Analysis of peak and off-peak operations > Visualizations of time-dynamic supply and demand 19

20. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment One Benefit of Dynamic Assignment: Visualization DA can help to visualize and explain truths about congestion: > Congestion is of short duration - in a 24-hour perspective > It is challenging to provide capacity as flexibly as demand varies > The demand peak has shifted and the rules of operations have to adjust 20

21. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment 21 Future Perspectives Next studies: > Contribute operations analysis to three major strategic studies: > Expo Line Upgrade study > UBC Line rapid transit study > Strategic Network Review > Analysis of BRT projects > Area transit plans Future model improvements: > Calibration of in-station transfer volumes (recent surveys) > Adding capacity constraints to the assignment model > Holding passengers in stations if departing train over capacity > Diverting passengers to alternative paths > Changing time of departure (peak spreading) > Research on time-of-day distribution of demand

22. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Acknowledgements Peter Klitz, TransLink Graeme Masterton, TransLink Cherry Xiong, PTV Kean Lew, PTV Anett Ehlert, PTV Fang Yuan, PTV Juergen Beyer, PTV 22

23. Regional Application of 24-Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment 23 Thank You Ian Fisher TransLink 604-453-3058 ian_fisher@translink.bc.ca www.translink.bc.ca Wolfgang Scherr PTV 302-654-4384 wscherr@ptvamerica.com www.ptvamerica.com For more information, please contact: