1. The Survival Game Can you make sure everyone stays alive and well?

2. The Survival Game There is an outbreak of a new, potentially fatal virus. It can be treated with Drug A or, more successfully, with Drug B. Your job is to keep 12 people alive and in good health – initially they are susceptible to the virus – if they get the virus and recover, then they are immune to further infection

3. The Survival Game The winner is the person who keeps the most people alive and in good health … … without going over budget!

4. Your Budget Each of you has a budget of 100 sims. The Treatment Table shows the cost of using Drugs A and B to treat people who are sick. If you run out of sims, you cant treat anyone further. – other than the cost of their treatment if they die. Treat- ment Cost if person survives the year Cost if person dies during the year Drug A46 Drug B8n/a Nonen/a2

5. Getting started … To see what happens to each person each year, you will throw a die. Suppose we throw the die for Anna, and we get a 2. To find out what that means, we use the Outcome Diagram for someone who was previously healthy.

6. Year 1, Anna Previously healthy 1Well2 3 4 5Sick6 2 thrown on the die. So Anna stays well and there is no cost.

7. We record that Anna needs no treatment, and therefore that there is no cost, on the Survival Grid.

8. The Survival Grid - -

9. Next we throw the die for the second person, Ben. Suppose this time we get a 6.

10. Year 1, Ben Previously healthy 1Well2 3 4 5Sick6 6 on the die, means Ben becomes sick. You decide to treat him with Drug B. The cost is 8 sims. You dont all have to choose the same treatment! Each player makes their own independent decision. You dont all have to choose the same treatment! Each player makes their own independent decision.

11. We need to show this on the Survival Grid.

12. The Survival Grid - - B 8

13. Year 1, Chloe Previously healthy 1Well2 3 4 5Sick6 Next, a 5 on the die, means Chloe becomes sick. This time, you decide to use Drug A. The cost is 4 sims.

14. Year 1 - - B 8 A 4

15. End of year 1 After youve thrown the die for all 12 people, and recorded any treatment you give them and the cost – add up the total cost for the year – and check how much you still have left in your budget

16. End of year 1 - - B 8 A 4 - - A 4 - - - - - - - - A 4 B 8 - - 32 68

17. Then move onto Year 2.

18. Year 2, Anna Previously healthy 1Well2 3 4 5Ill6 A 3 on the die, means Anna stays well and there is no cost.

19. Year 2, Ben Sick – on drug B 1Recovers2 3 4Sick5 6 Die gives a 2. Using the Outcome Diagram for Drug B, you see that Ben recovers. Ben is now immune, so will stay healthy from now on.

20. Year 2, Chloe Drug A 1Recovers2 3Sick4 5 6Dies 6 on the die. Using the Outcome Diagram for Drug A, you see that sadly Chloe dies. The cost is 6 sims. The cost is greater this time because Chloe would have needed hospital care.

21. Year 2 - - B 8 A 4 - - A 4 - - - - - - - - A 4 B 8 - - 32 68 - - Im - D 6

22. End of Year 2 - - B 8 A 4 - - A 4 - - - - A 4 - - A 4 B 8 - - 32 68 - - Im - D 6 A 4 - - - - - - - A 4 B 8 - - 30 62 38 B 8

23. Year 3 Lets suppose that at the end of year 3 you only have 2 sims left …

24. End of Year 3 - - B 8 A 4 - - A 4 - - - - A 4 - - A 4 B 8 - - 32 68 - - Im - D 6 A 4 - - - - - - - A 4 B 8 - - 30 62 38 B 8 A 4 Im - D - A 4 B 8 - - - - - A 4 B 8 - - 36 98 2 B 8

25. Year 4 You have now run out of money, so other than anyone dying, you cannot treat people further. You hope that people will recover and become immune …

26. End of year 4 Most people do recover, but unfortunately Jack dies and Kaylyn stays sick. You lose another 6 sims for Jacks hospital treatment. You cant treat Kaylyn any more, she will just have to take her chances.

27. End of Year 4 - - B 8 A 4 - - A 4 - - - - A 4 - - A 4 B 8 - - 32 68 - - Im - D 6 A 4 - - - - - - - A 4 B 8 - - 30 62 38 B 8 A 4 Im - D - A 4 B 8 - - - - - A 4 B 8 - - 36 98 2 B 8 Im - - D - - - - - - - - D 6 NT - - - 6 104 -4 Im -

28. Year 5, Kaylyn Sick – no treatment 1Recovers2Sick3 4 5Dies6 1 on the die. Using the Outcome Diagram for Sick – no treatment, you see that fortunately Kaylyn recovers.

29. End of Year 5 - - B 8 A 4 - - A 4 - - - - A 4 - - A 4 B 8 - - 32 68 - - Im - D 6 A 4 - - - - - - - A 4 B 8 - - 30 62 38 B 8 A 4 Im - D - A 4 B 8 - - - - - A 4 B 8 - - 36 98 2 B 8 Im - - D - - - - - - - - D 6 NT - - - 6 104 -4 Im - - - D - - - - - - - - D - - - - 0 104 -4 Im -

30. The final outcome When you have completed Year 5, fill in the final column and see how many people you have managed to keep alive. The winner is the player who keeps most people alive. If there is a tie, then the player with the most healthy people wins – immune people are healthy, of course, having recovered.

31. End of Year 5 - - B 8 A 4 - - A 4 - - - - A 4 - - A 4 B 8 - - 32 68 - - Im - D 6 A 4 - - - - - - - A 4 B 8 - - 30 62 38 B 8 A 4 Im - D - A 4 B 8 - - - - - A 4 B 8 - - 36 98 2 B 8 Im - - D - - - - - - - - D 6 NT - - - 6 104 -4 Im - - - D - - - - - - - - D - - - - 0 104 -4 Im - D OK Im OK D Im OK Im

32. The final outcome Number of people alive and healthy = 10 Number of people alive but sick = 0 Number of deaths = 2

33. Over to you Play in groups of 3 – 5 You need – a Survival Grid each – one copy of the Outcome Diagrams – one copy of the Example Game if you think you might need it – one copy of the rules if you think you might need them – a 6-sided die Good luck!