1. ECOSYSTEM–BASED ADAPTATION AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE
REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA
ECOSYSTEM–BASED ADAPTATION AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Experiences with M&E in the Context of PPCR in Zambia
DRAFT
David C. Kaluba
National Coordinator PPCR and Principal Economist
Government of the Republic of Zambia
6th June 2013

2. Zambia Strategic Programme for Climate Resilience (SPCR) – Overview
Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR) – integral part of Zambia’s effort to respond to climate change
Phase I ( ) supports:
mainstreaming, capacity building and information sharing at national level
Preparing for Phase II (design outlined in SPCR), endorsed in June 2011

3. Zambia SPCR – Overview Phase II (2013-2019) supports:
Three highly complementary PPCR Projects, administered by IBRD, AfBD and IFC, as well an NDF-funded project
Government to move from capacity building to climate resilience priorities
Overall Program Coordination

4. Zambia SPCR - Overview Three PPCR Projects
Barotse Sub-Basin
Kafue Sub-Basin
Three PPCR Projects
AfDB PPCR project – Kafue Sub-basin
IBRD PPCR project – Barotse Sub-basin
IFC PPCR Project – private sector support: index-weather insurance, climate information, micro credit, etc
Due to high vulnerability, the Barotse and Kafue Sub-Basins of the Zambezi were chosen as focal areas for SPCR interventions. They comprise 24 districts, and a potential population of 3.8 million

5. Oversight and Institutional Arrangements
INTER-MINISTERIAL NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE SECRETARIAT
National Coordination of Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management
Implementation by line ministries
Coordination of PPCR M&E
Government-led channel for coordination with MDBs and external Partners
Core Team from Key Sectoral Ministries
Complemented by contracted staff

6. Zambia’s Results Framework
1. Participatory
Adaptation
2. Climate Resilient
Infrastructure
3. Strategic Programme
Support
3.3 Private Sector Support
3.2
Strengthened Climate
Information
3.1
Institutional Support to
Zambia’s Climate Change
Program
Climate Change mainstreamed in the most economically important and vulnerable sectors of
the
economy
SPCR 1 - 7
Years
Outcomes
and Impacts 2
Strengthened adaptive
and livelihoods of
vulnerable farmers and
rural communities
Strengthened climate
resilient infrastructure
policies and pilot
implementation
Strengthened
institutional
structure, strategic
planning, coordination and
awareness for climate
resilience
Country
Catalytic
Replication 5 15
yrs
A Prosperous Climate Resilient Economy
Transformative
Impact 10
years
Zambia’s Results Framework

7. Five Core Indicators National Level Mainstreaming
Changes in budget allocations to climate-smart programs in national budget
National Level Mainstreaming
Vulnerable districts, wards and communities use improved tools, information and instruments to respond to climate change and variability
Local Adaptive Capacity
Number of beneficiaries supported directly by the project to adapt to the effects of climate change
Target Beneficiaries
Evidence of strengthened Government capacity and coordination mechanism to mainstream climate resilience
Institutional Framework
Climate responsive financial instruments developed and tested
Climate Responsive Investment

8. Other Indicators –Baroste Sub-basin Project
Change in area of canals with optimal average flows
Changes in area with sustainable access to reliable canal water
Degree of integration of climate resilience in local area planning
Number of sub-grants approved and completed
Incremental labor generated through cash-for-works
Strengthened institutional and financial mechanisms to ensure climate resilience
Number of relevant climate information products/services made available for decision making at various levels

9. Sample Results Framework and Monitoring -Baroste Sub-basin Project
Project Development Objective (PDO): To strengthen Zambia's institutional framework for climate resilience and improve the adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities in the Barostse sub-basin
PDO Level Results Indicators*
Core
Unit of Measure
Base-line
Cumulative Target Values**
Frequency
Data Source/
Methodology
Responsibili-ty for Data Collection
YR 1
YR 2
YR3
YR 4
YR5
YR6
Indicator One (National Level Mainstreaming)
Changes in budget allocations to climate-smart programs in national budget1
Allocations to climate resilient programmes increased by 25% in real terms in vulnerable sectors by EOP (agriculture, environment, natural resources, energy, water, infrastructure, health and DRM) from baseline
118.8 million ZMW/
Year2
124.7
130.7
136.6
141.3
144.9
148.5
million ZMW/
year
Annual
Yellow Book (budget allocations) by Ministry and program
ZCCN and MoF
Indicator Two: (Local Adaptive Capacity)
Vulnerable districts, wards and communities use improved tools, information and instruments to respond to climate change and variability
% of targeted councils, wards and community groups assessed as having developed incremental decision making capacity and applied climate information to adapt to longer-term climate change and variability 3 0% --
50% of first tranche sub-projects
70% of all sub-projects
Baseline, Mid-Term, Sub-Project Approval and EOP
Survey of Beneficiaries
Baseline, Midterm and EOP – Independent Evaluation
Sub-Project Approval: M&E Team
Indicator Three: (Canal Operation in Floodplain)
Change in area of canals with optimal average flows
Average flow velocity of targeted canals at 80% of limiting flow standard (0.6 m/s for sandy clay soils) measured 3-4 months after floods recede
To be assessed by baseline study
0.6 m/s
0.5 m/s
0.48 m/s
Technical Survey
Assessment Study and M&E Team
Indicator Four:(Target Beneficiaries)
Number of beneficiaries supported directly by the project to adapt to the effects of climate change
Number of direct beneficiaries (cumulative)4:
Total HH
Women-headed HH
Other vulnerable HH
Total no. of people
375
160
215
1,900
2,600
1,100
1,500
13,100
7,900
3,400
4,500
40,000
16,100
7,000
9,200
81,100
25,800
11,000
14,800
130,000
Records by M&E Team
M&E Team

10. Challenges of M&E
Lack of quantitative baseline data (allowing for monitoring of long term transformational impact)
Limited skilled human resources and capacities

11. Challenges of M&E Climate Change Resilience
Difficulties in developing a composite indicator that measures different aspects of community resilience (e.g. observed behavioral change)
Inter-sectoral participatory project in a centralized Government system
Difficult to attribute/distinguish progress achieved through adaptation or sectoral policies and activities

12. Measures to address Challenges
PPCR includes capacity building and awareness raising activities
A baseline survey (funded under a Project Preparation Grant) to be undertaken
Composite indicator based on score card (to be developed)
Engagement of stakeholders at all levels (Secretariat responsible for sharing and “ground-truthing’ the results )

13. Measures to address Challenges
Inter-ministerial Secretariat established composing of staff from key sector ministries
Clear roles and responsibilities:
Secretariat : Overall Program (SPCR) level monitoring
PPUI’s and Provincial Officers : project/sectoral and sub-basin monitoring
Partner NGOs and Private Sector firms: sub-basin monitoring
Beneficiary communities: participatory monitoring though scorecard system
Will make use of existing M&E systems in districts

14. For More Information, Please Contact or