1. General overview of the political situation in Belarus Tatiana Kouzina BISS` Executive Director www.belinstitute.eu

2. V.Silitski's preemptive authoritarianism concept Suppress any emerging oppositional forces by dealing with political challenges well in advance tactical prevention: pressure on oppositional politicians, independent journalists, human rights defenders institutional prevention: amendments into the law on mass events current bill to penalize "illegal sociological surveys cooperation between non-democratic regimes: succession of some Lukashenka's authoritarian practices by Russia's elite

3. Social Contracts in Contemporary Belarus Social contract between the regime and the population (2008- 2009 study): – only 4% of population are ready to participate in protest actions. – benefits provided by the authorities for different social groups guarantee the electoral loyalty of the Belarusians Update of the Social Contract study (in field): – Belarus government has stopped to buy the electoral loyalty of the large groups of citizens but basically started the path of oligarchic authoritarianism. – before the upcoming parliamentary elections the usual rhetoric returning (ex. $500 monthly salary).

4. Before Parliamentary Elections 12 political prisoners in the country; creation of the black list of the regimes opponents to forbid them to exit Belarus. notable decline in the support of the EU in Belarus: 2012 47% pro-Russia vs. 37% pro-EU (IISEPS, March 2012) 2011 31.5% pro-Russia vs. 50.5% pro-EU). (IISEPS, March 2011) Integration package offered by Russia: renovation of economic support in exchange for Belarus adhesion to Eurasian Union project.

5. Geopolitics: BISS Foreign Policy Index The geopolitical trend is defined by the strengthening of Belarus' dependence on Russia. For Washington and Brussels, resuming dialogue remains conditional upon the prior release and full rehabilitation of all political prisoners Lukashenka's attempts to normalize relations with the EU are controversial. The amnesty decision will show how much he is willing to step up.

6. In March-April 2012 the index of Belarus relations with the EU has broken even for the first time since 2011: diplomatic conflict has been resolved and EU ambassadors returned back to Minsk. January-February 2012March-April 2012 Geopolitics: BISS Foreign Policy Index

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