1. HURRICANE DECISION MAKING PRESENTED BY: LARRY GISPERT

2. A MONTAGE OF THE TRACK OF HURRICANE GEORGES FROM 18 - 28 OF SEP. 1998 A MONTAGE OF THE TRACK OF HURRICANE GEORGES FROM 18 - 28 OF SEP. 1998

3. THE AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON HAS... 10NAMED STORMS, OF WHICH 6WILL BE HURRICANES 6WILL BE HURRICANES 2WILL BE MAJOR HURRICANES 2WILL BE MAJOR HURRICANES

4. Dr. Grays Predictions storms – hurricanes - majors 1998 9 – 6 – 4 1999 14 – 9 – 4 2000 11 – 7 - 3 2001 12 – 7 – 2 2002 11 – 6 – 2 2003 14 – 8 - 3 1998 14 – 10 – 4 1998 14 – 10 – 4 1999 12 – 8 - 5 1999 12 – 8 - 5 2000 14 – 8 - 3 2000 14 – 8 - 3 2001 15 – 9 – 4 2001 15 – 9 – 4 2002 12 – 4 – 2 2002 12 – 4 – 2 2003 16 – 7 - 3 2003 16 – 7 - 3 Predicted Actual

5. 1995-1999 MOST ACTIVE FIVE YEARS IN HISTORY 65 NAMED STORMS, OF WHICH 41 WERE HURRICANES 21 WERE MAJOR HURRICANES

6. REMEMBER, LARRY SAYS…. REGARDLESS OF HOW MANY STORMS ARE PREDICTED FOR THE YEAR…..IT ONLY TAKES ONE TO RUIN YOUR WHOLE DAY

7. PROBABILITY OF A STORM COMING TO TAMPA BAY TROPICAL STORM 1 - IN - 10 TROPICAL STORM 1 - IN - 10 HURRICANE 1 - IN - 17 HURRICANE 1 - IN - 17 MAJOR HURRICANE 1 - IN - 25 MAJOR HURRICANE 1 - IN - 25

8. SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE

9. HURRICANE POPULATION AT RISK (2000 figures)

10. HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY EVACUATION ZONES HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY EVACUATION ZONES

11. Yea! right LARRY

12. YOUR TYPICAL LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGER

13. THE EMERGENCY MANAGERS PLIGHT IF HE DOES EVERYTHING RIGHT AND RECOMMENDS EVACUATION WHEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES CALL FOR IT…. 4 OUT OF 5 TIMES THE STORM WILL TURN AND GO ELSEWHERE…....

14. EYE OF STORM IS 24 HRS., BUT 39 MPH WINDS ARE 12 HRS. AWAY FROM TAMPA NHC NORMAL TRACK ERROR 72 HRS. + or - 360 MILES 48 HRS. + or - 220 MILES 36 HRS. + or - 160 MILES 24 HRS. + or - 100 MILES 12 HRS. + or - 50 MILES NHC NORMAL TRACK ERROR 72 HRS. + or - 360 MILES 48 HRS. + or - 220 MILES 36 HRS. + or - 160 MILES 24 HRS. + or - 100 MILES 12 HRS. + or - 50 MILES EYE 39 MPH WINDS

15. DURING HURRICANE GEORGES OF THE 162,480 PEOPLE IN HILLSBOROUGH WHO WERE SUPPOSED TO EVACUATE, ONLY ABOUT 57,000 ACTUALLY DID….

17. REMEMBER, WE EVACUATE FOR SURGE NOT WIND THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE IS MOBILE HOMES, WHO MUST ALWAYS EVACUATE

18. Courtney Campbell Causeway, east end looking westward

19. New Office building on Boyscout & Westshore

20. Dillards at Westshore Mall

21. Marriott Waterside Downtown Tampa

22. Tampa General Hospital on Davis Islands

23. MONTE CARLO TOWERS BAYSHORE BLVD.

24. Vencor Hospital Interbay area

25. Studios of WMTX-FM our E.A.S. station

26. Downtown Tampa looking southward from the Cass Street Bridge

27. Marathon Oil Terminals on Palmetto Beach

28. FACTORS WE CONSIDER WHEN MAKING AN EVACUATION DECISION r TIME OF DAY FOR EVACUATION... r SIZE AND TRACK OF STORM PROJECTED AT LANDFALL... r TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL/GALE FORCE WINDS (39MPH)... r WHEN BEST TO CLOSE AREA SCHOOLS? r ANY SPECIAL EVENTS GOING ON... r CONDITION OF ROADWAY NETWORK…

29. IF YOU MUST EVACUATE r DO IT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE r GO TO THE HOME OF FRIENDS OR FAMILY WHO LIVE IN A NON- EVACUATION ZONE. r GO TO HOTEL, MOTEL. r AS A LAST RESORT GO TO PUBLIC SHELTERS OR LEAVE THE REGION. r REMEMBER MONEY, PAPERS, ID, MEDICINE AND ARRANGE FOR PET CARE.

30. IF YOU ARE A BUSINESS THAT MUST EVACUATE…. r IMPLEMENT YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN... r SECURE YOUR FACILITIES IN ORDER TO WEATHER THE STORM… r REMEMBER TO ALLOW YOUR EMPLOYEES TIME TO SECURE THEIR HOMES… r CLOSE DOWN WHEN THE MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER IS GIVEN...

31. IF YOU DONT HAVE TO EVACUATE r STAY HOME AND PROTECT YOUR WINDOWS AND OTHER OPENINGS. r OFFER YOUR HOME TO SOME FAMILY THAT MUST EVACUATE. r GET PLENTY OF SUPPLIES….WATER, FOOD, MEDICINE, BATTERIES, RADIO. r IDENTIFY YOUR SAFE-ROOM FOR THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.

32. IF YOUR ARE A BUSINESS THAT DOES NOT HAVE TO EVACUATE…. r IMPLEMENT YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN... r SECURE YOUR FACILITY IN ORDER TO WEATHER THE STORM…. r ALLOW YOUR EMPLOYEES TIME TO SECURE THEIR HOMES… r IF YOU PROVIDE VITAL SERVICES….STAY OPEN AS LONG AS YOU CAN

33. TAKE PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR YOUR OWN SAFETY HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY HAS NEARLY A MILLION PEOPLE LIVING HERE AND CLOSE TO 400,000 MAY HAVE TO EVACUATE

34. NO ONE IS EXEMPT FROM A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER BE SMART, BE SAFE, OBEY THE LAW AND EVACUATE WHEN ORDERED TO DO SO. EVACUATION IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY

35. DISASTER RECOVERY PRIORITIES r SEARCH AND RESCUE FOR VICTIMS... r RESTORATION OF CRITICAL SERVICES/FACILITIES... r DEBRIS MANAGEMENT... r PROVISION OF BASIC NEEDS TO POPULATION... r VICTIM/INSURANCE CO. INTERFACE...

36. ECONOMIC IMPACT TO THE TAMPA BAY REGION FROM A WORST-CASE STORM $42.5 BILLION OF INFRASTRUCTURE/CONTENTS LOSS…… DOES NOT INCLUDE AN UNSPECIFIED AMOUNT OF LOSS DUE TO LOST JOBS, TOURISM, ETC…… TBRPC STUDY…..1992 TBRPC STUDY…..1992

37. REMEMBER, THE SAGE OF DISASTERS PREACHES….. IF YOU FAIL TO PLAN……… THEN YOU HAD BETTER PLAN TO FAIL…..

38. THANK YOU VERY MUCH IT HAS BEEN A PLEASURE SPEAKING WITH YOU REMEMBER ALWAYS THINK SUNSHINE SUNSHINE