1. Using an Infrastructure Planning Support System to quantify climate change
Presentation by: Michael Tarbert
Environmental Sustainability REU
Advisor: Dr. Chinowsky
Mentor: Amy Schweikert

2. Presentation Outline Project Background Methodology Results
Conclusions
Summary

3. ICliCS, IPSS, Research Importance
Project BAckground

4. Background
ICliCS researches the immediate and far reaching effects of climate, both quantitatively and qualitatively on basic infrastructure.
Contracts with International organizations and governments.

5. Background: Infrastructure
Why is infrastructure important?
Key to economic growth.
Important for social growth, especially in developing countries.
Indicator for all
8 Millennium
Development goals
(African Union, 2005)

6. Background: Importance
Why is climate change
important to infrastructure?
First, we must accept climate change is currently happening, and will continue to occur.
Second, we must understand the importance of Infrastructure and transportation networks to the human population.
Third, infrastructure is vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
This study focuses on the road transportation

7. Background: IPSS Infrastructure Planning Support System (IPSS)
Program that utilizes global climate modeling predictions through the year 2100 to produce quantitative data
Monetary costs to adapt, and not to adapt to climate change (Produce annual costs)
Study uses IPSS to:
quantify the impacts climate change (temperature and precipitation) on road infrastructure.
Assist policymakers to determine future actions.

8. Background: Purpose
The purpose of this study is to update a former study- ‘Climate change: comparative impact on developing and developed countries’ (Chinowsky et al. 2011)
Climate change impacts on road infrastructure in 10 different countries, ranging from Lower to Upper income levels.
Show why adapting is necessary
Show why developing countries are especially in danger!

9. Background: 10 Countries
Country
World Bank income level
Total KM Road
Ethiopia
Lower
36 469
Cameroon
Lower-middle
50 000
The Philippines
Bolivia
62 479
Croatia
Upper-middle
29 038
Venezuela
96 145
Sweden
High
New Zealand
93 748
Japan
Italy

10. Climate Modeling, Road Impacts
Methodology

11. Methodology: Climate Modeling
Global Circulation Models (GCM’s)
54 IPCC approved models
Future climate predictions
GIS as a tool using Climate
Research Units (CRU) (grid structure)
Climate data (GCM’s) applied to road inventory by CRU grid.

12. Methodology: Road Impacts
IPSS looks for stress factors
Precipitation or temperature threshold is exceeded, inducing extra maintenance cost.
Left with decision: To adapt, or not to adapt…
Unpaved  Gravel
Gravel  Update drainage methods
Paved  Update Binder types
***No adapt incurs increased maintenance costs

13. Median/Max costs, Opportunity Cost, Risk Analysis
Results

14. Results: determining Max/Median
Finding Median and Maximum Costs by GCM

19. Results: Opportunity Cost
Universal evaluation method developed by ICliCS
OCx=(CCx⁄SRCx)/PRx
X- country of interest
OC- Opportunity Cost (%)
CC- Total cost of climate change
SRC- cost to construct 1 km of secondary paved road
PR- Countries current paved road stock
Shows the amount of paved road inventory a country could have constructed through 2100

20. Results: Opportunity Cost
Country
Opportunity Cost
Bolivia
334%
Ethiopia
407%
Cameroon
139%
Croatia
196%
The Philippines
294%
Venezuela
94%
Sweden
74%
New Zealand
124%
Japan
45%
Italy
66%

21. Results: Risk Analysis

22. Results: Risk Analysis

23. Results: Risk Analysis

24. Country
Total Max Adapt
Total Median Adapt
Total Max No Adapt
Total Median No Adapt
Bolivia $ $ $ $
Ethiopia $ $ $ $
Cameroon $ $ $ $
Croatia $ $ $ $
The Philippines $ $ $ $
Venezuela $ $ $ $
Sweden $ $ $ $
New Zealand $ $ $ $
Japan $ $ $ $
Italy
$39,400.30
$34,477.20
$130,281.9
$138,006.4

25. Adapting, Developing Countries, Future Work
Conclusions

26. Conclusions Adapting road infrastructure is beneficial
It makes ‘cents’
Positive social implications
Assists in meeting MDG

27. Conclusions Developing countries incur the most cost
Yet, have the least amount of resources to adapt let alone expand infrastructure
IPSS is a tool that can be used to formulate infrastructure plans and mitigate climate change impacts

28. Conclusions: Future Work
Sustainable construction practices
More in-depth country detail- accuracy
Including a growth function for road stock
More realistic approach

29. Questions?