1. Task overview Katja Buchta (M.Sc.)

2. Research question How do UMTs develop according to urban growth models? For now: focus on Dar es Salaam (DSM)

3. Background Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Urbanization Prospects 2009 2010: 3,349,000

4. Background Estimates for current population in informal settlements vary between 70 – 80%. Hill & Lindner (2010): Modelling informal urban growth under rapid urbanisation in DSM.  use results as a basis for analysing the UMT development

5. The model 2 different scenarios (Hill & Lindner 2010): – „Baseline scenario“: extrapolating the dynamics based on past conditions and behaviour. – „Scenario IV“: the joint implementation of 3 infrastructure projects: I) establishment of a bus rapid transit (BRT) system, II) construction of a new ring road, III) Kigamboni Bridge construction. Used classes: planned residential, informal residential, other urban, vacant / agriculture (basis: 100 x 100m cells)

6. Baseline scenario (2022) Urban development without the influence of any strategic planning measures.  Rapid expansion of the urban fringes towards the periphery. Source: Hill & Lindner, 2010 Scenario IV (2022) Combined implementation of 3 infra- structure projects.  Kigamboni area as a potential hotspot of urban growth

7. Approach Combine UMTs (2008) with scenarios (2022) – Fishnet of 100 x 100m cells allocate UMTs (2008) – Analyse change of UMTs (2008) for the 2 scenarios in 2022: Which UMTs would „disappear“ to give way for settlement areas? – Evaluate the change in respect to green infrastructure

8. Thank you!

9. References Hill, A. & C. Lindner (2010): Modelling informal urban growth under rapid urbanisation. A CA-based land-use simulation model for the city of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Urbanization Prospects 2009 (http://esa.un.org/wup2009/unup/p2k0data.asp)http://esa.un.org/wup2009/unup/p2k0data.asp