1. Climate Change and Fossil Fuels Will running out of oil help mitigate global warming? WSU March 1, 2007 Dr. Robert Brecha Physics Dept., Univ. of Dayton Dayton, OHUSA45469-2314 brecha@udayton.edu

2. Outline Climate change signals Climate models and projections Peak oil (and natural gas and coal) Will fossil fuel limits have an effect? Conclusion

3. The Past

4. Mean global temperature - distribution

5. Energy Balance “Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications” James Hansen, et al. Science 3 June 2005 308: 1431-1435 – Current imbalance of 0.85±0.15 W/m 2

6. CO 2 Record

7. CO 2 and CH 4 concentration

8. The Future

9. Model scenario indicators

10. Climate “Forcings”

11. Model projections

14. Temperature change - natural or anthropogenic?

15. Energy and fossil fuels

16. World energy use Coal Nuclear Oil (34.9%) Gas Hydro Biomass Geothermal, wind, solar, etc. RE (13.4%) Total ~400 Quadrillion Btu World: ~84 million barrels/day; US: ~21 million barrels/day

17. US production peak Approximately 30 out of 40 largest producers have crossed a peak

18. Peak models – world production USGS (BP + 50%) BP reserves

19. Discovery vs. consumption

20. Discovery and production

21. World Reserves and R/P

22. Production and R/P Ratio

23. Most Recent EIA Predictions (June 2006) In the IEO2006 reference case, … (p)roduction from Norway … is expected to peak at about 3.6 MMbd in 2006 and then decline gradually to about 2.5 MMbd in 2030... The UK sector is expected to produce about 2.2 MMbd in 2010, followed by a decline to 1.4 MMbd in 2030.

24. Natural Gas National Petroleum Council (1998) US Prod.Import from Canada 1998550 Bcm 90 Bcm 2010725 Bcm 120 Bcm 2015780 Bcm Now the numbers are more like … 1998550 Bcm 2003 550 Bcm 2004540 Bcm 2005 526 Bcm And Canada peaked in 2002 at 188 Bcm and expects a decline of 2.5% per year

25. Natural Gas in the US EIA Statistical Review of World Energy data (per day)

26. U.S. Coal Production

27. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/coal.html Energy Information Administration – Annual Energy Review 2005 Lower quality coal

29. R/P for Coal 1993 – According to BP, reserves will last 250 years 2005 – According to BP, reserves will last 155 years 3% future growth (less than currently), reserves will last 65 years U.S. figures: 1939, 3800 years remaining; 1953, 1900 years; 1993, 300 years; 2005, 240 years left

30. EROEI “Net energy from the extraction of oil and gas in the United States” C. Cleveland Energy 30 (2005) 769–782 Tar sands Hydro Wind Energy output Energy input

31. Tar Sands Alberta, Canada Effectively a mining operation Current production of 10 6 b/d of synthetic crude oil Estimate ~3×10 6 b/d in 10 yrs., 5×10 6 b/d in 25 yrs. Needs large amounts of NG and water, plus hazardous waste disposal EROEI is perhaps 2:1 – 3:1

32. Oil Shale Western U.S. Possibly 800 billion barrels !! A mined product Techniques proven in principle, but not large scale Only profitable with oil >$75/bbl High growth, optimum scenario – 10 6 b/d in 2025 EROEI is (optimistically?) estimated at ~2:1 – 4:1 Rand Corp. report for US DOE, Nat’l. Energy Tech. Lab.

33. Ethanol from Corn Yield for ethanol from corn is ~70 GJ/ha (@9000 kg corn /ha) Automobile + light truck transportation uses ~1.7×10 10 GJ/a Quick calculation: we would need 2.4×10 8 ha of land Currently we have in the US 1.2×10 8 ha of cropland total But … the key point missing is the energy input. Ethanol from industrial-scale corn farming is barely an energy break-even. Energy return on Energy invested (EROEI) ratio is ~1.3. GHG emissions are only slightly less than for conventional gasoline – and can be worse if coal-generated electricity is used. D.Pimentel and T. Patzek, Natural Resources Research 14, 65-76 (2005) Shapouri - USDA “The Energy Balance of Corn Ethanol: An Update” Ag. Econ. Report 813 Farrell et al., Science 311, 506-508 (2006)

34. Fossil fuels and CO 2

35. SRES - Oil

37. SRES - NG

38. Oil and CO 2

39. Natural Gas and CO 2

40. Coal and CO 2

41. Total CO 2 – Middle Scenarios

42. Total anthropogenic carbon emissions

43. a b

44. Peak fossil fuel scenario

45. Global Sea Level Changes Rahmstorf, Science (2007)

46. Stop burning fossil fuels? “The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE

47. Keep burning at same rate? “The Climate Change Commitment” T. M. L. Wigley 18 MARCH 2005 VOL 307 SCIENCE

48. Will climate change mitigation be costly? Some coupled economic-climate models show the costs to be minimal Stern report – not acting now will be extremely costly U.S. businesses that have taken action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have found positive bottom-line results