1. Sampling 12/4/2012

2. Readings Chapter 8 Correlation and Linear Regression (Pollock) (pp 199- 206) Chapter 6 Foundations of Statistical Inference (Pollock) (pp 122-135)

3. Final Exam SEC 1 – December 12 th (Wednesday) – 1:30 pm - 3:30 pm SEC 2 – December 11 th (Tuesday) – 1:30 pm - 3:30 pm

4. Final Paper Due 12/7/2012 by 11:00AM- Doyle 226B Turnitin Copy by 11:59PM on 12/7

5. OPPORTUNITIES TO DISCUSS COURSE CONTENT

6. Office Hours For the Week When Wednesday 8-4 Thursday 10-12 And by appointment

7. Course Learning Objectives Students will learn the basics of polling and be able to analyze and explain polling and survey data Students will learn the basics of research design and be able to critically analyze the advantages and disadvantages of different types of design.

8. Sampling After we write the survey, we have to select people!

9. NON-PROBABILITY SAMPLES Why?

10. Quota Samples A Type of Judgment Sample Break the nation into groups Pick a certain number/quota from each group Stop when you have filled up your quota

11. The Death of Quota Sampling: 1948 We used to use these for national polls George Gallup thrived on these. In 1948 he predicts that Thomas Dewey of New York would defeat Harry Truman

12. Why Gallup was Wrong It was a close election The electorate diversified (missed out on groups) They filled up quotas with easy targets They stopped polling

13. Snowball Sample one becomes two, becomes four, becomes 8 Difficult to Reach Populations Background ChecksChecks

14. Looking through A Parent’s eyes The Most Beautiful Kids Ever Internal Polling

15. The Laws of Sampling 1.if cost is not a major consideration it is better to collect data for ones target population than for a sample thereof 2.if cost dictates that a sample be drawn, a probability sample is usually preferable to a nonprobability sample. 3. The Law of Large Numbers 4.The accuracy of estimates is expressed in terms of the margin or error and the confidence level. 5.all probability samples yield estimates of the target population.

16. PROBABILITY SAMPLING

17. Rules on Sampling if cost dictates that a sample be drawn, a probability sample is usually preferable to a nonprobability sample. The Law of Large Numbers

18. Collecting a sample Population Sampling Frame The Sample itself

19. Probability Samples Ensure that every unit in the population has an equal chance of being selected In a simple random sample all elements in the population can be selected (SRS) – This involves having a full list of everyone! – We cannot do a SRS of the United States

20. The best that we can hope for is that every unit in the sampling frame has an equal chance of being selected

21. How to do it- Simple Way Random Number TableThe Lottery Method

22. The Law of Large Numbers Smaller samples cause greater error. The larger the sample size, the greater the probability that our sample will represent the population.

23. All probability samples yield estimates of the target population

24. Two Things that Deal With the Stars AstronomyAstrology

25. Polling is Science (Astronomy) Polls are right more than they are wrong We especially love them when it favors our candidates.

27. Polling is Random (Astrology) It is not an exact science, there is error in every poll. Polls Don’t Vote, People Vote Polls Don’t Vote We like it less when it doesn’t favor our candidate

29. Same Election, Different Results PollDateSampleMoE Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread Rasmussen Tracking 10/4 - 10/61500 LV34749Romney +2 Gallup Tracking 9/30 - 10/63050 RV24946Obama +3 CNN/Opinion Research 9/28 - 9/30783 LV3.55047Obama +3 National Journal 9/27 - 9/30789 LV4.247 Tie NBC News/WSJ 9/26 - 9/30832 LV3.44946Obama +3 NPR 9/26 - 9/30800 LV45144Obama +7 ABC News/Wash Post 9/26 - 9/29813 LV44947Obama +2

30. Different Questions Perhaps? If the election were held today, would you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? If the election were held today, would you vote for Mitt Romney or Barack Obama? If the election were held today, would you vote for Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? If the election were held today, would you vote for Republican Mitt Romney or Democrat Barack Obama? If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

31. More Likely a different sample

32. SAMPLING ERROR Polling is 95% Science and 5% Astrology

33. The accuracy of estimates is expressed in terms of the margin or error and the confidence level

34. The Confidence Level The Confidence Level- can we trust these results? Surveys use a 95% confidence interval that the results will fall within the margin of error There is a 5% (1 out of 20) chance that the results will fall outside this range and produce wacky findings. This error often appears when you keep asking the same questions again and again

35. The Margin of Error Margin of Error A floating range above and below the estimate. Large Samples= Less Error

36. What else determines sampling error Non-response rate Variability Bias

37. How Can a Survey of 1000 People Represent Millions of Voters? Responses Cancel each other out No New opinions are added

38. Its Logarithmic