1. www.southafrica.net Notes: 2002* represents projected arrivals for the year Source: WTO, Stats SA, SATourism Analysis Presentation to the Portfolio Committee February 2003

2. www.southafrica.net Tourism in South Africa boomed in 2002… Source: WTO, Stats SA, SATourism Analysis Foreign tourist arrivals to South Africa increased by 11.1% (642,215) in 2002 North America up 9.2% (18,263) Australasia up 14.5% (10,833) Asia up 20.7% (30,390) Europe up 24.2% (244,411) Africa up 7.8% (321,830) Overseas arrivals up 20.1% (301,797)

3. www.southafrica.net South Africa has outperformed the global industry by 7 % in 2002. Source: WTO, Stats SA, SATourism Analysis

4. www.southafrica.net Arrivals from South Africa’s two primary overseas markets enjoyed growth of 24.1% (UK) and 22.1% (Germany) in 2002 Source:Stats SA, SATourism Analysis

5. www.southafrica.net Tourist arrivals from Africa increased by 7.8% and tourist arrivals from the USA increased by 7.0% Source:Stats SA, SATourism Analysis

6. www.southafrica.net With the exception of January 2002, arrivals to SA have outperformed the US outbound market trend.

7. www.southafrica.net Markets in decline over 2002 were… UAE, down 14.7% (248 tourists) Lesotho, down 9.7%(124,855 tourists) Reunion, down 6.7% (61 tourists) Argentina, down 63.9%(9,081)

8. www.southafrica.net Forecasts and targets – discussion table GROWTH OVER 2002 – BASE YEAR 2002 Base year 2%5%7%7.5%10% Arrivals 6,373,1666,500,6296,691,8246,819,2886,851,1537,010,483 Jobs 492,654502,507517,287527,140529,603541,919 GDP (R’000 000) 72.574.076.177.677.979.8 Total foreign direct spend in SA (R’000 000)* 50.851.853.354.454.655.9 Notes: * This has been modelled by the SRU. See Appendix 1. This is a multiplication table only and not a scientific projection 2002 indicators are multiplied by a range of possible growth percentages to illustrate growth potential Structural barriers are ignored

9. www.southafrica.net Relationship between arrivals, jobs and GDP No direct relationship between jobs and arrivals 1998 and 1999, both jobs and arrivals were in decline 2000, jobs improved and arrivals declined 2001, jobs and arrivals decreased

10. www.southafrica.net So what does all this mean ? Uncertain relationship between GDP, jobs and arrivals Possible reasons for counter-intuitive observations: Possible time lags where an increase in arrivals precedes GDP growth which precedes job creation Structural inefficiencies in the tourism industry resulting in a non-translation of increased tourist volume to increased GDP to increased job creation Areas of intervention Policy intervention Industry structure intervention Need to develop a thorough understanding of industry dynamics, flow of funds and industry measures Possible tools are TSA’s and in-depth cluster analysis

11. www.southafrica.net Indaba 2003 Indaba remains South African Tourism’s premier trade show and marketing event. The 2003 Indaba will be held in Durban from 3-6 May 2003. The Tourism indaba in the world’s 6th largest travel and tourism trade show

12. www.southafrica.net Indaba 2003 In 2002 there were 212 smmes represented This was a 51% increase from 2001 SATourism aims to improve on this for 2003. Numbers will be available after indaba audited results are released 36.25% of the expenses for the show were spent with PDI companies bearing in mind that a large majority of the budget goes to International Marketing, Venue Hire etc – items which are not South African PDI Companies Of the PDI Spend 31% was spent on KZN based PDI’s

13. www.southafrica.net Indaba 2003 Online registration up 40% this year… More focus on key markets Over 2000 sqm more space made availavle by the ICC South African Tourism aims to make the 2003 indaba the 5 th largest Travel and tourism show in the world…

14. www.southafrica.net Thank you

15. www.southafrica.net appendix

16. www.southafrica.net Tourist arrivals from Lesotho, SA’s largest source market, have been in decline since 1999, due to structural issues. The decline slowed in 2002 and showed signs of levelling off by September 2002 and recovery followed…