1. Debating the Causes of WW1 – 3 Puzzles, 3 Levels Volusia County PS 2012 Workshop Gary Armstrong, Ph.D. William Jewell College

2. Causes of World War I A. Why 1914 Matters B. Incomplete Explanations A chauffeur’s wrong turn?A withered arm? A chauffeur’s wrong turn?A withered arm? Arms Race? Arms Race? Thinking War was Impossible? Thinking War was Impossible? What Causes War? “3 Lenses” What Causes War? “3 Lenses” C. 3 rd Lens: Rise of German Power Effects of German power: Rigid Alliances Effects of German power: Rigid Alliances The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis) The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis) D. 2 nd Lens: Domestic Crises Crises within Multinational Empires Crises within Multinational Empires Fischer Thesis Fischer Thesis E. 1 st Lens: Ideas F. Learning from 1914 – Competing Theories “Motives Theory” & “Accidental War” (& Levy’s Preference Scheme) “Motives Theory” & “Accidental War” (& Levy’s Preference Scheme) “Spiral Theory” (& Turn the Army Around!) “Spiral Theory” (& Turn the Army Around!) “Deterrence Theory” (& Britain as Missing Deterer) “Deterrence Theory” (& Britain as Missing Deterer) “Cult of the Offensive” (and Red Pants!) “Cult of the Offensive” (and Red Pants!)

3. Great War Basics 1914-1918 Central Powers vs. Allies Dead: 9 Million military, 7 million civilian Firsts –Use of chemical weapons –Mass attacks on civilians from air –Genocide –Immobile Front –US in European War Widespread Collapse & Social Exhaustion New World Coming

4. “The lamps are going out all over Europe. We shall not see them lit again in our lifetime.” Sir Edward Grey, British Foreign Secretary, 1905-1916 1862-1933

5. Niall Ferguson No persuasive evidence that Germany intended to “conquer the world” Germany’s September 1914 Program would have created German-dominated customs union That’s what we have today – 90 years later!

6. The Chauffeur’s Fault

7. Kaiser Wilhelm II 1959-1941 reign 1888-1918 Psychological Pathologies?

9. The Naval Revolution HMS Dreadnought 1907 Irrational Arms Race?

10. Dreadnought schema

11. Naval Strength, 1914 CountryPersonnelMajor Warships Dreadnoughts Russia 54,0004 France 68,00010 Britain209,0002920 Germany 79,0001713 A-H 16,000 3

12. Confidence that Globalization won’t let it happen Economist, 10/97

13. War is not rational – Norman Angell Norman Angell 1872-1967 Nobel Peace Prize, 1933 Read Mill’s “Essay on Liberty” at age 12 Great Illusion, 1910 “…military and political power give a nation no commercial advantage, that it is an economic impossibility for one nation to seize or destroy the wealth of another, or for one nation to enrich itself by subjugating another.”

14. Kenneth Waltz Emeritus Professor, UC Berkeley Most cited Neo-Realist Man, The State, & War (1959) Theory of International Politics (1979) Spread of Nuclear Weapons: Would More Be Better? (1995)

15. What Causes War? Waltz & 3 Images First Image: Nature of man –Augustine, Reinhold Niebuhr –Waltz: Why This Doesn’t Work Second Image: Defects in Regimes –Woodrow Wilson, Lenin –The Liberal Democratic Peace –Waltz: Why This Doesn’t Work Third Image: Structure of World Politics –Anarchy & Security Dilemmas

16. Rise of German Power Industrial Power (UK 1900 = 100) Country1880190019131928 UK73.3[100]127.2135 USA46.9127.8298.1533 Germany27.471.2137.7214 France25.136.857.374 Russia24.547.576.672 A-H1425.640.7-- Italy8.113.622.537 Japan7.61325.145 Source: Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Great Powers

17. Rise of German Power: Military Manpower Country1880189019001914 Russia791k677k1.16 M1.35 M France543k542k715k910k Germany426k504k694k891k UK367k420k624k532k A-H246k346k385k444k Italy216k284k255k345k USA34k39k127k164k Source: Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Great Powers

18. Rise of German Power: Population (in millions) Country1890190019101913 Russia116.8135.6159.3175.1 USA 62.6 75.9 91.9 97.1 Germany 49.2 56.0 65.5 66.9 A-H 42.6 46.7 50.8 52.1 France 38.3 38.9 39.5 39.7 UK 37.3 41.1 44.9 45.6 Source: Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Great Powers

19. Rise of German Power Urbanization (%) Country189019001913 UK29.932.834.6 USA15.318.723.1 Germany11.315.521.1 France11.713.314.8 A-H 5.6 6.6 8.8 Russia 3.6 4.8 7.0 Source: Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Great Powers

20. Alliance System, 1914

21. Building an entente 1904: France & UK begin conversations 1905: Russia nearly collapses 1907: France, Russia, UK form entente cordiale

22. Building: Another Way Wilson: How many British troops do you need if Germany attacks? Foch: One. And we will see to it that he is killed. –1910 General Henry Wilson General Ferdinand Foch

23. Count Alfred von Schlieffen 1833-1913

24. The Schlieffen Plan

25. German Timetable Liege open by M+12 Liege open by M+12 Brussels by M+19 Brussels by M+19 French frontier on M+22 French frontier on M+22 Thionville-St. Quentin by M+31 Thionville-St. Quentin by M+31 Paris by M+39 Paris by M+39 12 19 22 31 39

26. Mobilization Chronology 6/28Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand 7/23AH ultimatum to Serbia 7/25Russia begins pre-mobilization 7/26Russia issues “period preparatory to war” alert” 7/28AH declares war on Serbia, begins mobilization 7/29Russia begins partial mobilization, then general mobilization, then cancels mobilization

27. Mobilization Chronology 7/30Russia orders general mobilization (1700) 7/31Germany learns of Russian mobilization (1200) 7/31German “Danger of War” alert (1300) 7/31German ultimatum to Russia to stop mobilization 7/31French mobilization, 10 km withdrawal 8/1German mobilization (1700) 8/1Germany declares war on Russia (1900) 8/2German invasion of Luxembourg 8/2British Cabinet orders Royal Navy to protect English Channel 8/2German ultimatum to Belgium (1900) 8/3UK orders army mobilization 8/3Germany declares war on France 8/4Germany invades Belgium (0802)

28. Causes of World War I A. What 1914 Matters B. Incomplete Explanations A chauffeur’s wrong turn?A withered arm? A chauffeur’s wrong turn?A withered arm? Arms Race? Arms Race? Thinking War was Impossible? Thinking War was Impossible? C. 3 rd Image: Rise of German Power Effects of German power: Rigid Alliances Effects of German power: Rigid Alliances The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis) The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis) D. 2 nd Image: Domestic Crises Crises within Multinational Empires Crises within Multinational Empires Fischer Thesis Fischer Thesis E. 1 st Image: Ideas F. Learning from 1914 – Competing Theories “Motives Theory” & “Accidental War” (& Levy’s Preference Scheme) “Motives Theory” & “Accidental War” (& Levy’s Preference Scheme) “Spiral Theory” (& Turn the Army Around!) “Spiral Theory” (& Turn the Army Around!) “Deterrence Theory” (& Britain as Missing Deterer) “Deterrence Theory” (& Britain as Missing Deterer) “Cult of the Offensive” (and Red Pants!) “Cult of the Offensive” (and Red Pants!)

29. Austria-Hungary Head of State: Kaiser Franz- Josef I (r 1848-1916) Population: 52 M Federal Empire Languages: 24% German, 20% Hungarian, 13% Czech, 10% Polish, 8% Ruthenian, 6% Romanian, 5% Croat, 5% Slovene, 3% Italian

30. Commander Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf 1852-1925 Chief of Staff, KuK Army, 1906-1917 Proposed War with Serbia 25 times, 1913 Dismissed, 1917, by new Emperor Karl

31. Socialist Vote DatePercentageSocialistTotal of VoteSeatsParl A-H191125.433 France191416.8103 Germany191234.8110397 Russia1912n.a.24 Britain1910 6.442670 Ferguson, Pity of War

32. Fischer Thesis Fritz Fischer, German Historian, 1908-1999 German leaders obsessed with internal threat of Socialist revolution German domestic pressure groups produced aggressive foreign policy Germany deliberately began WW1 in bid for world power Germany intended to commit ethnic cleansing in Russia, then re- colonize with Germans Continuity in German foreign policy Huge Controversy

33. Wobbly Autocracy? Internal Unrest in Russia Evidence of Unrest Troops Used to suppress internal unrest –1901155 –1903322 –Jan 190913,507 –All 1909114,108 1903: 54 aristocratic estates wrecked 1913: 100,000 arrests for “attacks on state power” Kennedy, Rise & Fall of the Great Powers

34. Wobbly Authoritarian? Internal Unrest in China Murray Tanner, “China Rethinks Unrest,” 2004

35. China’s Demographic Challenge Global Average = 103-107 Boy:Girl

36. 1 st Image: Ideas & War in 1914 German Author General von Bernhardi,1849-1930 Germany & the Next War –The Right to Make War –The Duty to Make War –World Power or Downfall –War as biological necessity based on natural law requiring struggle for existence Key Ideas –Militarism –Social Darwinism –War as Moral Corrective

37. Causes of World War I A. What 1914 Matters B. Incomplete Explanations A chauffeur’s wrong turn?A withered arm? A chauffeur’s wrong turn?A withered arm? Arms Race? Arms Race? Thinking War was Impossible? Thinking War was Impossible? C. 3 rd Image: Rise of German Power Effects of German power: Rigid Alliances Effects of German power: Rigid Alliances The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis) The Schlieffen Plan (& Forster Thesis) D. 2 nd Image: Domestic Crises Crises within Multinational Empires Crises within Multinational Empires Fischer Thesis Fischer Thesis E. 1 st Image: Ideas F. Learning from 1914 – Competing Theories “Motives Theory” & “Accidental War” (& Levy’s Preference Scheme) “Motives Theory” & “Accidental War” (& Levy’s Preference Scheme) “Spiral Theory” (& Turn the Army Around!) “Spiral Theory” (& Turn the Army Around!) “Deterrence Theory” (& Britain as Missing Deterer) “Deterrence Theory” (& Britain as Missing Deterer) “Cult of the Offensive” (and Red Pants!) “Cult of the Offensive” (and Red Pants!)

38. Accidental or Inadvertent War? Levy’s Preference Scheme AHLW>>CW>>NP>>WW GermanyLW>>CW>>NP>>WW RussiaNP>>WW>>CW>>LW FranceNP>>LW>>WW>>CW UKNP>>LW>>WW>?LW Levy in Avoiding War

39. Barbara Tuchman 1912-1989 Spiral Theory

40. Spiral Theory: What’s Luxemburg Got to Do With This? Chancellor Bethmann Hollweg General Moltke KW2 aka Supreme War Lord

41. Cult of the Offensive?

42. World Politics in an Offensive Dominant World Arguments for territorial expansion seem persuasive Strong incentives for preemptive attack Strong incentives for preventive war Push diplomacy in crisis Premium on secrecy

43. The Cult of the Offensive Assumption: Defensive military strategies dominated World War I. Puzzle: Why did belligerents adopt offensive strategies? Michael Howard: Logic of “Men Against Fire”

44. Map: Ger penetration 1918

45. Map: German control highpoint 1918

46. Elan Vitale!

47. Losses: KIA Aug-Nov 1914 306,000 241,000 30,000

48. Key Lessons of 1914  “German Revolution” pressuring international stability  Rigid Military Planning Created Crisis Cascade  Incomplete Democratization (or Liberalization) Dangerous  Dangers of View that War is Inevitable or Good

49. Some Conclusions Deep Causes vs. Trigger Immense Pressures Creating Strong Pressure for Conflict Some Pressures Look Similar Today