1. Profile of Jamaica in the Context of Vulnerability “Setting the Stage”

2. The Issue of Vulnerability

3. In the 1980s-1990s Caribbean countries (among others) lobbied extensively and successfully for a global platform within which the special and unique characteristics which shape, define and challenge their development could be discussed.

4. Lobby resulted in global summit and formulation of the SIDS POA in 1994

5. The issue of “vulnerability” is a key consideration in defining the special status of SIDS

6. For SIDS, vulnerability is all encompassing Economic Ecological Social

7. 1. ECONOMIC u Highly “open” economies - susceptible to external “shocks” e.g.: changes in prices of primary commodities - bauxite, citrus, bananas and sugar produce immediate impact on national economic future

8. 1. ECONOMIC  Vulnerability to changes in global trade regimes: Trade liberalization - resulting in lowering of taxes on trade - some Caribbean countries derived 60%+ of government revenue from taxes on trade resulting in serious dislocation

9. 1. ECONOMIC Development of Regional Trading Blocks e.g., Jamaica - Impact of NAFTA (loss of jobs to Mexico) Declining manufacturing sector: 1990 - 20% GDP 2000 - 15% GDP

10. 1. ECONOMIC  Changes in global trading has resulted in: Loss of preferential access for bananas New dispensation - sugar and rum

11. 1. ECONOMIC Serious problems: WI bananas St Kitts/Nevis: divestment from sugar

12. 1. ECONOMIC u Classification as “high risk” high cost of insurance/reinsurance negative impact on investment & production costs

13. 1. ECONOMIC other characteristics Undiversified economic structure Small domestic markets Constraints on institutional capacity

14. 2. ECOLOGICAL Fragility of natural resource base Vulnerability to sea-level rise Susceptibility to natural disasters

15. Hurricanes & Tropical Storms 1980-1989

16. 3. SOCIAL High rates of migration “brain drain” effect High rates of natural increase pressure on State to provide basic services Human resource constraints required skills

17. Most of these vulnerabilities are characteristic of Jamaica

18. Vulnerability Profile of Jamaica

19. 1. ECONOMIC Dependence on: (Year 2000) Manufacturing -15.8% Financial services -14.9% Tourism - 9.2% Mining-9.1% Agriculture -7.1% (sugar & bananas)

20. 1. ECONOMIC  ( Relatively ) Small population Small domestic markets Limited capacity to mobilize domestic savings

21. 2. ECOLOGICAL  Susceptible to natural disasters Hurricane Allen, 1980 - category 4-5 Hurricane Gilbert, 1988 - category 4-5

22. 2. ECOLOGICAL Low-lying coast - vulnerable to storm surge - potential for extensive coastal damage Vulnerability of tourism infrastructure to storm surge

23. Hurricane Gilbert Damages Domestic cropsJ$769.0 million Roads$39.0 million Education$388.0 million Housing (44% of stock)$2.0 billion Tourism (hotels damaged)86.0% Deaths45

24. Also Mainly Coastal Geographic Concentration Negril, Montego Bay, Ocho Rios, Port Antonio 21.5% 35.3% 2.5% 28.5% 10.5% Kingston 2.2% South Coast

25. 2. ECOLOGICAL Modeling has shown that a category 5 storm would generate a 3-4 meter storm surge Extensive inland inundation potential

26. Photo No. 1 of Montego Bay

27. Photo No. 2 of Montego Bay

28. 2. ECOLOGICAL Extensive damages during Hurricane Gilbert to all island

29. 3. SOCIAL u Location of settlements in vulnerable areas: Coast Hilly/mountainous areas Flood plains (problem for Hurricane Michelle)

30. Jamaica 1970-1998 Storm Related Fatalities YearTotal Deaths: by Floods by Windstorms 1990-1998880 1980-198917211062 1970-197991856 Source: Em-Dat

31.  Extensive out- migration of persons at all levels of income 3. SOCIAL

32. High rates of natural increase pressure on State for essential services

33. 3. SOCIAL Unemployment Crime

34. Natural disasters serve to underscore a country’s peculiar vulnerabilities

35. Quantum of costs! Gilbert 1998: 49 people killed 800,000 affected 200,000 homeless Direct damage - US$956 million Indirect damage - US$230 million Total losses > 65% GDP

36. The Legacy of Michelle Area of disturbed weather, 28 October 2001

37. Institutional/Operational Constraints Lack of applied methodology Difficulties with organizational structure - problems of coordination

38. Areas of Worse Damage Spanish River Watershed Swift River Watershed

39. Damages: Flooding Landslides Debris flow

40. Damages Infrastructure: Access roads to bridges Secondary roads Bridges: Spanish River Swift River Westmoreland River Affected population: 5 lives lost 40,000 affected (lost electricity) 4,000 immediately affected 800 evacuated

41. Damages … Continued Community services: Schools, health clinics, community centers Houses: 500 completely destroyed Agriculture: 1911 ha crops (coffee, bananas)

42. Michelle Underscored Weaknesses in:

43. Natural Disaster Underscoring Vulnerability due to Man-made Impacts Hurricane Michelle Heavy rains Steep slopes Highly erodable soils Geological faults Intervention by man LandslidesFlooding

44. Natural Disaster Underscoring Vulnerability due to Man-made Impacts Intervention by Man Rivers Clearing of river banks Development or river beds Animal grazing in gullies Mining gravel and sand in beds Exacerbation of flooding Land Improper land use Deforestation (slopes) Use of fire to clear lands Clearing of steep slopes Landslides Problems for Communities & Infrastructure losses

45. Damage through Flooding/Debris Flow

47. Damage to Infrastructure

48. Michelle underscored: Poor Land Use Planning: Poor Settlement Strategy Historical evidence that this phenomena had occurred several times before 1837 1937 1940 1943 2001

49. Cutting of trees for charcoal Use of fire to clear land Livestock grazing in river bed Development of flood plains Michelle also Underscored Destructive Cultural Practices: Contributed to Impacts

50.  Michele emphasized the economic dependence of communities on agriculture Loss of coffee Loss of bananas Livestock losses

51.  Michelle underscored existing vulnerabilities and points to the need for long term investments in: Watershed management Land use planning

52. Lessons Learnt in Post-Michelle  Reconstruction process must rebuild while reducing vulnerability

53.  Implications for several issues, including:  Land use  Cultural practices  Settlement strategy

54. Objectives of this workshop are:  To provide exposure in the application of the ECLAC Methodology in accessing the effects of disasters

55. Objectives  Point the way to policy changes which can significantly reduce Jamaica's vulnerabilities to natural disasters over time.

56. United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America & the Caribbean Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean P. O. Box 1113, Port of Spain, Trinidad & Tobago Tel: 868-623-5595; Fax: 868-623-8485; e-mail: registry@eclacpos.org April 2002