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Latin American Business Outlook Part of the Global Business Outlook A joint survey effort between Duke University, Fundação Getúlio Vargas and CFO magazine.

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Presentation on theme: "Latin American Business Outlook Part of the Global Business Outlook A joint survey effort between Duke University, Fundação Getúlio Vargas and CFO magazine."— Presentation transcript:

1 Latin American Business Outlook Part of the Global Business Outlook A joint survey effort between Duke University, Fundação Getúlio Vargas and CFO magazine Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 1

2 Top Internal Concerns for Latin American CFOs Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 2 1.Ability to maintain margins 2.Attracting and retaining qualified employees 3.Ability to forecast results 4.Working capital management 5.Maintaining morale/productivity 6.Supply chain risk 7.Counterparty risk 8.Managing IT systems 9.Balance sheet weakness 10.Data security 11.Pension obligations

3 Top External Concerns for Latin American CFOs Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 3 1.Consumer demand 2.Federal government policies 3.Corporate tax rates 4.Price pressure from competitors 5.Global financial instability 6.Currency risk 7.Credit markets/interest rates 8.Foreign competition 9.Inflation 10.Cost of non-fuel commodities 11.Financial regulation

4 Forecast of % change over next 12 months Historical ResponsesDec 2013 Response Revenue Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country. Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 4 Product Prices

5 Historical Responses Capital Spending Dec 2013 Response Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 5 Forecast of % change over next 12 months Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country, except medians are shown for Latin American earnings in Dec 2012 and Mar 2013. Earnings

6 Historical Responses # FT Employees Wages & Salaries Dec 2013 Response Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 6 Forecast of % change over next 12 months Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country, except medians shown for Latin America in Dec 2012 and Mar 2013. #FT=Number of Fulltime Employees

7 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 Business Optimism Index (Scale from 0 to 100) Historical Responses Country / Region Own Company Dec 2013 Response 7 Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country

8 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 Past Economic Conditions For Company 8 Have the economic conditions for your company changed in 2013?

9 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 Expected Economic Conditions For Company 9 Do you expect the economic conditions for your company to change in 2014?

10 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 Corporate Budget for Charitable Donations 10 Does your company have a corporate budget for charitable donations?

11 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 Past and Expected Return on Assets (ROA) 11

12 Duke/FGV CFO Survey in Latin America Press Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 12

13 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 13 Duke/FGV CFO Survey in Latin America Press

14 Latin American Business Outlook Part of the Global Business Outlook A joint survey effort between Duke University, Fundação Getúlio Vargas and CFO magazine Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 14

15 FROM Sep 2013 15 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

16 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 Effect of Increase in Interest Rate 16 If benchmark long-term interest rates increase 1%/2% by the end of 2013, how will this affect your plans for: Note: 26.3% of the Latin American CFOs expect the benchmark long-term interest rate to increase 1% by the end of 2013; 6.2% of the Latin American CFOs expect a 2% increase in benchmark long-term interest rate by the end of 2013. Financing Full-time Employee

17 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 Obtaining Long-term Credit in the Past 3 Years 17 During the past 3 years, has your company obtained any long-term credit?

18 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 Currency Denomination of Long-term Credit 18

19 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 Top Reasons to Shift Toward Temporary/Part-time Workers 19 % of CFOs who choose the reason as important (top3): Note: More than 50% of the CFOs answer that their companies shifted toward temporary/part-time workers during the past years.

20 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 Past and Expected Return on Assets (ROA) 20

21 FROM June 2013 21 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

22 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 Intention to Deploy Cash Reserves 22 Is it likely that your firm will begin to deploy its cash reserves during the next 12 months?

23 If not deploying cash, why not? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 23

24 If deploying, on what will accumulated cash reserves be deployed? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 24

25 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 Corruption as a Risk Factor—Global Perspective 25 The magnitude of business corruption (fraud, bribery, other ethical violations) as a risk factor, comparison across continents.

26 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 Corruption as a Risk Factor—In Latin America 26 The magnitude of business corruption (fraud, bribery, other ethical violations) as a risk factor, comparison across countries in Latin America.

27 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 CSR and Sustainability as Important Objectives 27 The proportion of CFOs that state Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and Sustainability as important objectives.

28 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 Motivations to Engage in CSR and Sustainability 28 What are the reasons that your company engages in CSR and sustainability?

29 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 Scrutiny of Executive Pay 29 Has the level of executive pay at your firm recently come under scrutiny?

30 From Before June 2013 30 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Sep 2012

31 Latin American Hiring Trends (Sep 2012) Within the past year, nearly ¾ of Latin American respondents experienced difficulty filling a job opening. Among this group, a variety of approaches were used to fill open positions. Difficulty filling an open position within the past year? If yes, would/did you do any of the following to attract qualified applicants? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 31

32 Corruption as a Risk Factor (Sep 2012) The magnitude of business corruption (fraud, bribery, other ethical violations) as a risk factor varies across geography (1=corruption not a significant factor, 5=very significant factor) Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 32

33 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 33 Corruption Effects (Latin America, Sep 2012) To the extent that business corruption exists, what would you say are its major effects?

34 Would a change in interest rates affect business spending? Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 34 How much would borrowing costs have to decrease to cause you to increase business spending ？ How much would borrowing costs have to increase to cause you to decrease business spending ？ An interest rate decrease of Would increase spending in this percentage of firms: 0.5%0% 1%2.6% 2%15.6% 3%26% > 3%49.4% An interest rate increase of Would decrease spending in this percentage of firms: 0.5%2.7% 1%9.5% 2%21.7% 3%36.6% > 3%67.7%

35 Is the Judicial System a Significant Risk for Your Firm? Percentage of Respondents that say that the court system is a “significant” or “very significant” business risk Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 35 Percentage of Respondents that say that the court system is a “significant” or “very significant” business risk

36 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 36 Cost and Risks Related to the Judicial System Percentage of respondents that list a factor as being an “important or very important problem with the judicial system”

37 Decreased in last five years (A small number is good, big number is bad) Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 37

38 Bonus relative to last year Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 38

39 If Growth Slows in These Regions, Effect on US firms Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 39

40 Regional Latin American Effects Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 40

41 (EXPERIMENT) Forecast of % change over next 12 months Historical ResponsesDec 2013 Response Revenue Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 41 Product Prices

42 Forecast of % change over next 12 months Historical ResponsesDec 2013 Response Revenue Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 42 Product Prices

43 Historical Responses Capital Spending Dec 2013 Response Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 43 Forecast of % change over next 12 months Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country, except medians are shown for Latin American earnings in Dec 2012 and Mar 2013. Earnings

44 Historical Responses # FT Employees Wages & Salaries Dec 2013 Response Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 44 Forecast of % change over next 12 months Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country, except medians shown for Latin America in Dec 2012 and Mar 2013. #FT=Number of Fulltime Employees

45 Latin American Business Outlook Duke University / FGV / CFO Magazine Dec 2013 Business Optimism Index (Scale from 0 to 100) Historical Responses Country / Region Own Company Dec 2013 Response 45 Notes: Presented data are the mean value for each region or country

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