1. with the support of Arnoldo Frigessi Department of Biostatistics University of Oslo frigessi@medisin.uio.no

2. Smerud Medical Research Oil & Energy Markets

3. Petroleum Finance Insurance HealthMarine Common challenges to statistical science

4. much data from different sources, but often few critical ones more complex data, because we measure more in depth complex systems to be modeled, with structured dependencies the easy part is done, necessary to discover “second order effects” evidence-based decision making, risk evaluation is required computationally intensive procedures Common challenges to statistical science

5. Statistical methods We shall produce the next generation of statistical methodology for innovation

6. Partners Cutting-edge innovation projects Cutting-edge novel statistics

7. Based on our scientific competence, experience, traditions … we shall built strong, interdisciplinary, ambitious teams, … planning together and producing top research results, … fundamentally needed to solve strategic innovation needs.

8. statistics for innovation: The largest European research centre in applied statistics. for the first time in the world Statistics focuses on Innovation!

9. A unique task force “This research group ought to be regarded as a national treasure. Many much larger countries with much greater resources should be envious of Norway for having such a team.” “The strengths are the high quality staff and excellent industrial commitment. This grant should secure the position of Norway as one of the leading countries in Europe in industrial statistics.”

10. Data integration - Complex models Long Predict - Tail Depend - ByCatch EventAnalysis - NetAlgebra - TotalRisk StatInsure - Commodity - SampleFish Multicompare - MissingStripes - FindOil GenomeAtlas - MetaAnalysis

11. Finalise the development of a new method to estimate the total risk and the needed total capital reserves for a risk-diversified bank/financial corporation. TotalRisk Marked risk Credit risk Operational risk OSLO TOTAL RISK MODEL + Correlations Dependencies Data Experts’ opinions

12. MetaAnalysis More and more clinical trials are available, assessing the efficacy of drugs. How to put together conclusions across published studies? A meta-analysis combines results of many clinical studies. How to merge published clinical studies with own precious data at patient level? We will invent new methods to merge public and private data.

13. LongPredict  Long-term predictions are steering instrument. Financial time series, climate or fish abundance - there is a need to project current trends ahead in the future, maybe 5 years, possibly 20, 50!  The question is not predicting the detailed behaviour but particular structural summaries: the probability that a trend is maintained, that certain (low) levels will not be reached anymore, that a new stationary regime has been reached.  We shall develop new methods to answer these questions.

14. FindOil Understanding Exploration: where to drill next to find oil and gas? Global Region Basin Province Play Prospect Develop a new methodology to guide exploration, by computing more precise probabilities of success.

15. SampleFish  Fish quotas are made on estimates of abundance of fish, based on data from commercial fishery, and sampling survey data.  We shall improve the sampling, develop new profound mathematical models that describe the marine environment under environmental pressure, climatic change and commercial exploitation.  This will lead to a new standard for a affordable management of marine resources.

16. International alliances. Training and education. Building on our academic and corporate international contacts, we will create a truly international centre, promoting international projects and alliances that build bridges between academia, business and industry. Industry-based research projects for master, PhD students, postdocs. UiO international graduate training programme in (bio)statistics for innovation

17. Much of the improvement in human welfare over the past can be accounted for by technological innovation in energy, engineering, public health, nutrition, fishery, agriculture. Statistics played a role also here. … with the aim to enhance the capability of the Norwegian economy to innovate by focusing on long-term research, forging alliances between research-intensive enterprises and prominent research groups. A broad view of the world - the global role and responsibility of science & technology. is aware of this role. Many partners are active with training, education, projects and investments in the developing parts of the world.

18. KLAR TIL START! Takk til Norges Forskningsråd! Arnoldo Frigessi frigessi@medisin.uio.no