1. Dr. Jack Gwo (His work may be mis-presented by an ugly George)

2. Uncertainty Analysis of First-Principle Hydrological Models J. P. (Jack) Gwo University of Maryland, Baltimore Co. Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering Baltimore, MD 21250 Email: jgwo@umbc.edu jgwo@umbc.edu Phone: 410-455-3323

3. Sources of Uncertainty  Natural Randomness  Data  Model Parameters  Model Physicochemical Processes  Model Predictions

4. Nested LHS Model Calibration & Uncertainty Analysis Prior PDF (model parameter) Latin-Hypercube Experiment Design (Maximin Distance) WASH123D Ensemble and Bayesian Statistics Converged? P&M Uncertainty Criteria Meet? STOP YES NO Posterior PDF

5. Example Application Contaminant Transport Through Fractured Rocks (Limestone & Shale)

6. Parameter Uncertainty

7. Process Uncertainty Matrix Diffusion Contaminant Transport

8. Model Prediction Uncertainty Fracture Matrix

9. Workload Estimate  Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis – 2 FTE (research associate at $66,000/yr for 2 years or a total of $132,000), not including the startup cost of model construction.  Uncertainty Analysis Only – 1 FTE (research associate at $66,000/yr for 1 year).