1. Vulnerability and Climate Change - The Development Challenge Phil O’Keefe The Geographical Association, Newcastle, 2008

2. The political economy of humanitarianism Climate Change Key Questions Exogenous and endogenous pressures Location of study area Methodology Key Hypothesis Important preliminary results Agricultural extensification, intensification and off-farm income How vulnerable are the Chagga to climate change? OVERVIEW

3. The Political Economy of Humanitarianism 1990-2005 from 500 million to 8 billion 20 million refugees, 40 million IDPs From natural disasters to complex emergencies Reorganisation of the UN system Growth of international NGOs A need for pre-disaster planning

4. Climate Change Challenges IPPC 4 - Variability Stern - Project to Programme Post Kyoto Carbon footprint negotiations within and between countries

8. CLIMATE CHANGE Synoptic Change; large scale system change -Global movement of ITCZ; high pressure system that dominates African weather -Regional impact of El Nino(e.g.1997); movement of the southern ocean oscillation -Deglaciation of Kilimanjaro but competing explanations; no ice in 25 years

9. Source: Kilimanjaro Meteorological Office

11. Source: URT 2003

12. Source: Kilimanjaro Meteorological Office

13. KEY QUESTION: What is vulnerability?  What is a bad year?  What is more important; climate change or climate variability? What are the pressures?  Climate Change  Changing commodity prices  Government policy What are the coping mechanism?  Can agricultural intensification decrease vulnerability?  Can agricultural extensification decrease vulnerability?  What is the role of off-farm income? HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT AGRICULTURAL SMALL HOLDERS ON KILIMANJARO?

14. WHAT IS VULNERABILITY? The extent to which a natural or social system is susceptible to sustaining damage from climate change, and is a function of the magnitude of climate change, the sensitivity of the system to changes in climate and the ability to adapt the system to changes in climate

16. Exogenous Pressures Climate change/ Climate variability Declining commodity prices Government policy Population increase Deforestation Fire risk Subsistence food insecurity Change of subsistence food crop Endogenous Pressures WHAT IS MORE IMPORTANT; CLIMATE CHANGE OR VARIABILITY? Climate variability used as proxy for climate change Therefore reducing vulnerability to climate variability is decreasing risk to climate change

19. LOCATION OF STUDY Tanzania Mt Kilimanjaro Kilimanjaro region Moshi rural and Rombo district

20. ROMBO PROFILE Location: 37°34E to 37°38E at 3’11S

21. METHODOLOGY 2 profiles from south to east on Kilimanjaro Built on Rufiji study Questionnaire modification Pilot survey Enumerator Training Enumerator monitoring Data entry checking system 1,016 Household surveys completed over 3 weeks (Map or diagram)

22. KEY HYPOTHESES Mark: How vulnerable are the Chagga to climate change? Paul: How are capitals accumulated on Mt. Kilimanjaro Zahra: What are the gender aspects of food security on Mt. Kilimanjaro? Matt: What are the government responses to famine?

23. OTHER DATA SOURCES Secondary survey Key informant interviews Physical asset checklist Structured observation Transect walks Theoretical context setting secondary data Location specific secondary data

24. ACCESS TO WATER SOURCES AS VULNERABILITY INDICATOR

25. LEVEL OF EDUCATION RELATED TO INFORMATION Source of information Level Of Education (Percentages) No Schooling Adult Education Primary Education Secondary Education College universityTotal Agricultural Extension Officer232032445032.6 Other Farmers28403220930.1 Seed Suppliers 410184.8 Media434553.8 Nowhere453728211828.8 Total100 Women’s coping mechanism Age (percentages) 18-3738-5757+Total Petty Buisness70644759 Remittances13153020 Others17212321 Total100 Differentiation of women’s coping mechanism by age

26. DIVISION OF LABOUR IN COFFEE PRODUCTION Coffee Harvester(s)Sex (percent) Coffee Marketer (s)Sex (percent) MaleFemaleTotalMaleFemaleTotal Male Parent937431734 Female Parent194429206134 Male & Female Parent422335311325 Children233222 Parents & Children252224454 Others15321 Total100

27. How many cattle owned? How many cattle loaned from others? How many chickens owned? NumberFrequencyPercent NumberFrequencyPercentNumber Frequenc yPercent 051050.2088186.8026125.7 123323.01848.31-428628.2 217417.12343.35-923723.3 3575.6350.510-1915615.4 4282.8450.520-29464.5 5+131.35+60.630-39121.2 Total1015100.0Total1015100.040-4990.9 50+80.8 Total1015100.0

28. Total Income 2005Total Income 2006 MoneyUSDPercentMoneyUSDPercent Median133800112Median178000148 Mean305523255Mean370544309 Per day8370.7Per day10150.8 Total310411786258676100Total 37647320 4313728100 Off-farm income14656975012214147.2 Off-farm income 16167852 513473242.9 Remittances456416503803514.7Remittances534030004450314.2 Bananas403779003364813Bananas502076004184013.3 Milk15106250125894.9Milk28109200234247.5 Livestock22457500187157.2Livestock24768600206416.6 Coffee16822300140195.4Coffee22500800187516 Maize12268536102244Maize20040510167005.3 Fruits363435030291.2Fruits469269939111.2 Wood256750021400.8Beans366195030521 Other farm167090013920.5Wood347600028970.9 Beans155000012920.5Millet128060010670.4 Millet10174008480.3Sunflower139125011590.4 Sunflower7277506060.3Other farm126247010520.3

30. What are the Impacts of climate change?FrequencyPercent Shorter Rain Seasons & Insufficient Rainfall40340 Insufficient Rainfall23723 Shorter Rain Seasons16416 Shorter Rain Seasons & Flood/Drought INcreases959 Flood/Drought Increases535 Insufficient Rainfall & Flood/Drought Increases343 Others83 Are you aware of climate change? Yes 95394 No 394 Missing 242

31. CAN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSIFICATION DECREASE VULNERABILITY? Forest limits – national park Bush Savannah no longer exists Large scale farming constraints Maize-bean shambas on lowlands due to availability of water Finger Millet – Cow peas extreme drought adaptation, illustrates the limits of cultivation without irrigation Population increase and landuse planning/ownership limit extensification opportunities

32. CAN AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION DECREASE VULNERABILITY? Intensifying by cash cropping or diversifying subsistence food production Is coffee rehabilitation possible?

33. WHAT IS THE ROLE OF OFF-FARM INCOME? Options of movement -Local -Regional -National Importance of transport Importance of education

34. What is the meaning of this case study? Adaptation is evolution Coping mechanisms suggest involution The need for post Kyoto to be adaptation focused The need for pre-disaster planning