1. Urban transport and climate change: New concerns for cities Dinesh Mohan INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY DELHI 18 September 2015 IIT Delhi THE 21ST CENTURY INDIAN CITY Developing an Agenda for Urbanization in India

2. Urban transport – changing concerns 18 September 2015IIT Delhi  1990s- Pollution  2000s- Road Safety (concern but unscientific)  Late 2000s- Lip service to climate change

3. India poor India middle class India rich Rich and middle class must reduce energy consumption Poor have to increase energy consumption 2050 18 September 2015 IIT Delhi

4. City density – traditional understanding 18 September 2015IIT Delhi

5. Car use and density redone 18 September 2015IIT Delhi Source: MEES, P. (2010) Density and sustainable transport in US, Canadian and Australian cities: another look at the data, World Council Transportation Research, Lisbon, Proceedings 12th WCTR.

6. Density, cities > 10 million 18 September 2015IIT Delhi Europe/USA Asia/Africa

7. Density, cities ~ 5 million 18 September 2015IIT Delhi Europe/USA Asia/Africa

8. IIT Delhi September 15September 15 Mature European Cities (19 th and mid 20 th century) Post colonial Indian City (Late 20 th – 21 st Century) Central business district critical Multiple business districts, cities within cities Public transport (mainly rail) before cars Motorcycles, inexpensive comfortable cars challenge role of public transport Manual labour in factoriesService and informal sector Car movement & speed concerns dominate Safety, climate change & pollution Management by mechanical systems Internet & ITS

9. IIT Delhi September 15September 15 The Indian City: 18 th -21 st Century Indian high density city – pre 1850 Colonial city – 1850-1950 Present city

10. 18 September 2015IIT Delhi

11. Vehicle ownership in countries with per capita incomes US$ 1,500-8,000 18 September 2015IIT Delhi India 2030 Cars/100MTW/100 France5010 Japan4510 Singapore123 UK472 USA692

12. Regional car segment share in 2015 18 September 2015IIT Delhi India USA Europe Largest, SUV Smallest

13. Pre-conditions for clean air 18 September 2015 IIT Delhi  Shorter trips  Mixed land use  Negative feedback for long trips – Fares based on distance Transport speeds around 15-20 km/h  Use of less polluting modes walking, cycling >> safety essential  Use of public transport  Close to home and work – dense network  Minimum infrastructure  Lowest emissions for vehicles

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15. 18 September 2015IIT Delhi DELHI

16. IIT Delhi 2008 D Metro Bus Rapid Transit CO2 emission estimates for Taipei Source: Prof Jason Chang

17. Life cycle emissions – rail modes Source: Mikhail Chester and Arpad Horvath 2008 Environmental Life-cycle Assessment of Passenger Transportation: A Detailed Methodology for Energy, Greenhouse Gas, and Criteria Pollutant Inventories of Automobiles, Buses, Light Rail, Heavy Rail and Air. WORKING PAPER, UCB-ITS-VWP-2008-2, University of California, Berkeley.

18. Life cycle emissions – road modes Source: Mikhail Chester and Arpad Horvath 2008 Environmental Life-cycle Assessment of Passenger Transportation: A Detailed Methodology for Energy, Greenhouse Gas, and Criteria Pollutant Inventories of Automobiles, Buses, Light Rail, Heavy Rail and Air. WORKING PAPER, UCB-ITS-VWP-2008-2, University of California, Berkeley.

19. IIT Delhi September 15September 15 Calculations based on:  Passengers carried per day (metro system and per bus)  Energy consumed (Total electricity bill for Metro and diesel consumed per bus  CO2 emitted per MVAH at the powerhouse, well-to-wheel CO2 for diesel  Fly ash emitted by metro system not included Estimates CO2 emissions per passenger in Delhi

20. Delhi Metro Ridership 18 September 2015 IIT Delhi

21. IIT Delhi 2011 CAR BICYCLE WALK 3 KM6 KM 12 KM 24 KM DOOR TO DOOR TRIP TIMES ELEVATED/ UNDERGRND PT ELEVATED UNDERGRND PT ELEVATED UNDERGRND/ PT SURFACE PT SURFACE PT SURFACE PT SURFACE PT ELEVATED UNDERGRND PT

22. IIT Delhi September 15 ISSUES  Even cities in high income countries have not been able to solve the problems that all of us have to deal with in the near future NO INDIAN CITY HAS CAR USE MORE THAN 15%

23. IIT Delhi September 15 Expenditure in Rs - 6 km round trip per day for 1 month Marginal cost 20-30% families earn less than Rs. 5,000 per month 70% families earn less than Rs 35,000 per month Minimum family income in Rs per month: Bus use – 6,000 Metro - 9,000 Motorcycle - 30,000 Car - 60,000

24.  Surface transport less energy consumimng  Underground or elevated transit does not reduce congestion, provides extra supply > CO2  CO2 ≈ road area + distance of travel CO2 and roads 20 th CENTURY SOLUTIONS: One way streets? Road widening & expansion? Flyovers, elevated/underground corridors? Metro/LRT/Monorail/Skybus - providing corridor capacity to serve link demand Underground trains seen as a major solution during cold war as nuclear shelters IIT Delhi 2011 Solutions contractor driven Not people driven “One-way streets reflect the dominance of the car and the failed go-faster policies of the traffic engineers. As we begin to realise that walking and cycling should be the dominant forms of transport, the one-way street should be consigned to the dustbin of history.” Peter Murray, Head of the New London Architecture Centre,

25. A typical brick shelter found on a Valley Lines railway station in South Wales U.K. (left) and a redesigned transparent shelter (right) (Source: Cozens, 2004) IIT Delhi 2009 33 per cent increase in annual passenger flows

26. Latest evidence IIT Delhi 2011 Possibilities to reduce CO 2 emissions from road traffic for urban planners seem limited: a restriction of space dedicated to traffic and a change of transport means for commuting represent leverage points. Reckien,D., Ewald,M., Edenhofer,O., & Ludeke,M.K.B. (2007). What Parameters Influence the Spatial Variations in CO2 Emissions from Road Traffic in Berlin? Implications for Urban Planning to Reduce Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions. Urban Studies, 44(2), 339-355. The results suggest that public transport users could achieve dramatic savings on their commute if the density of that network was increased considerably Murphy,E. (2009). Excess commuting and modal choice. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 43(8), 735-743. Current urban policy, which relies predominantly on ambitious and expensive programmes of transport infrastructure provision must be rethought in Beijing ZHAO, P., LU, B. & LINDEN, G. J. J. (2009) The effects of transport accessibility and jobs and housing balance on commuting time: evidence from beijing. International planning studies, 14, (1) 65-83. High speed systems will further encourage sprawl and greater energy consumption, and hence, Public Transit (PT), even if the commercial speed is rather low, is probably the only way to improve urban accessibility and urban attractiveness in a sustainable way CROZET, Y. Economic development and the role of travel time: the key concept of accessibility, Gothenberg: Volvo Research & Educational Foundations, pp. 1-22.

27. Indian cities  Modal shares  30-50% Pedestrians  10-20% Bicycles  ~ 30% formal/informal “public” transport  10-20% Motorcycles  5-10% cars (Delhi ~ 15%)  Cannot afford very expensive transit systems: Subsidy in Delhi – Rs 35,000/passenger per year  Motorcycles: Rs 1 per km marginal cost – keeps public transport fares low, need minimum infrastructure cost to minimise subsidy  ~ 80% employment in informal sector 18 September 2015IIT Delhi

28. Safe roads a precondition for the future low CO2 city  Children, elderly, walking speed ~ 0.8 m/s  Pedestrian green phase < 30 s  Therefore, motorised lanes < (30 X 0.8) = < 24 m  Shops and/or street vendors by design  City blocks ~ 800 m square  Maintain urban average speeds at 15 km/h  Public transit on surface 18 September 2015IIT Delhi