1. Creative Systems Engineering IEEE / INCOSE Presentation Walter Sobkiw November 17, 2009

2. Creative Systems Engineering Content Introductions Path to the book Tools that started it all Some major themes Publishing approach University adventures

3. Creative Systems Engineering Credentials

4. Creative Systems Engineering Path 20052006 Carnegie Melon presentation Walt creates SAT NASA finds SAT Analyzed Green Paper A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy Walt creates GDA Published short story on Kindle about Taffy

5. Creative Systems Engineering Path 20072008 GDA Analyzed Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change GDA Analyzed U.S. Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan Realized popular media did not match the real work Published on Kindle INCOSE International Conference: System Engineering for the Planet Published Paperback

6. Creative Systems Engineering

7. Tools that started it all From SAT to GDA

8. Creative Systems Engineering SAT Idea Prelim Spec Doc SAT Final Spec Reports Updates Authors Previously Manual Inspections Lets machines do what they do well – search, count, filter, categorize, profile, visualize Lets humans do what they do well – creativity, critical thinking, inspiration, intuition

9. Creative Systems Engineering SAT is Special Because Open rules visible to everyone – Rules for finding bad requirements text NOT proprietary Rules easy to change coincident with analysis run – To allow users to quickly tune tool to their domain and adjust for potential false finding It is fast, NO overnight runs – Encourage on-the-fly analysis – Let users tweak rules, look at results, and press submit button every 30 - 60 seconds Previous runs become templates for future analysis

10. Creative Systems Engineering SAT Architecture Templates Previous Analysis SAT Engine Apache Server Web Browser User Documents Services & Rules SAT Exports - Metrics & Results - Excel & HTML Help Runs on your computer Returns document text blocks Search criteria many attributes Search saved as templates Grouped by rules & services Fast 150 pages in 60 seconds Works Like Internet Search Engine But Nothing is hidden Uses predefined directories Encourages directory access Add your own directories

11. Creative Systems Engineering SAT Architecture Rules grouped into services Services grouped into templates Templates grouped into domain Domains exist

12. Creative Systems Engineering Sevices and Rules Enable and disable services and rules using these display filters to fit your situation

13. Creative Systems Engineering Sevices and Rules Modify, Delete, Add services and rules

14. Creative Systems Engineering Text Blocks Metrics Search Counts All Words Counts Settings Shape Reading Levels Reports

15. Creative Systems Engineering Evolution SAT spec writers Designers QATest IV&V Related Documents Small 1-10 page Problem Statements Project Summaries Architects Uncommitted unclear position, do not begin modeling decomposing, designing, implementing until you understand & commit your stakeholders Surface key Reqs Consistency, completeness, testability, metrics Evaluate docs, outline compliance, quality reqs Specifications Non Engineering Domains Started Here NASA Study

16. Creative Systems Engineering Massive Evolution Plain Language Analysis tech writing Legislative Analysis education Constitutional Analysis education Med Transcript Analysis professional EU Green Paper 30 pgs Stern Review 700 pgs US Climate Change Strategic Plan 400 pgs General Document Analysis (GDA) How do individuals, organizations, countries, international bodies solve problems, what are the tools and techniques For Policy Makers From Engineering Domain

17. Creative Systems Engineering Big Picture 3. TEMPLATES 1. RULES 2. SERVICES 5. DOMAINS COMMUNICATIONS DEFENCE ATC 6. PRECISE LANGUAGE INDUSTRIES ENGINEERING GOV REGULATION LEGAL 4. APPLICATION.

18. Creative Systems Engineering Findings Green Paper: A cry out for help – Few rules & services were hit – Vague references to markets, people & international efforts Stern Review: Makes case for the problem – Most rules & services were hit – Very broad & deep US Strategic Plan: Starts to offer alternatives – Next step Revelation: Systems Engineering is the Answer! http://www.cassbeth.com/gda/index.html

19. Creative Systems Engineering Path Templates Previous Analysis SAT Engine Apache Server Web Browser User Document s Services & Rules SAT Exports - Metrics & Results - Excel & HTML Help 6. PRECISE LANGUAGE INDUSTRIES ENGINEERING GOV REGULATION LEGAL 20062005 20082007

20. Creative Systems Engineering Some major themes

21. Creative Systems Engineering Some Major Themes Systems Engineering is the Answer – Humans went to the moon Markets can not solve all problems – Nothing happened since the first energy crisis 30 years ago Sustainable Development is not new – How did we get to 6 billion people Past may offer a road map – Science the Endless Frontier Connections – memex, Internet, and libraries

22. Creative Systems Engineering Some Major Themes Transparency – Problems are really complex the more minds the better Tradeoff Methodology – Based on 5000+ years of civilization Architecture Alternatives – Without alternatives solution not understood Innovation and Creativity – It is not about patterns and process Freedom – e.g. publishing is in trouble along with publishing industry Reasonableness – Common sense needs to surface for the good of all

23. Creative Systems Engineering Systems Engineering Heart? Architecture and Tradeoffs

24. Creative Systems Engineering Where is the Heart? Stake Holders Requirements Trade off Studies Architecture alternatives Architecture Select Design, Implement, Verify, Validate Maintain, Upgrade, Transition Decommission, Dispose Key Issues Key Reqs Modeling Simulation Config Mgmt

25. Creative Systems Engineering Systems Engineering Ideal Solution Actual Solution Limitations Ignorance Limitations Technology Politics Money Time Motivation Education People Effectiveness

26. Creative Systems Engineering Systems Engineering Ideal Solution Actual Solution Limitations Time Limitations Technology Politics Money Time Motivation Education People Effectiveness

27. Creative Systems Engineering Solution Scenarios Sad Story Criminal Miracle Stuck t e No ExcuseArrogant

28. Creative Systems Engineering Value Approaches Lowest Cost Highest Profit ROI - Greatest Return on Investment TCO - Total Cost of Ownership IRR - Internal Rate of Return EVA - Economic Value Added ROV - Real Option Value ROA - Return on Assets ROIE - Return on Infrastructure Employed

29. Creative Systems Engineering Value Approaches Value is not only financial but non financial Some value a day at the beach more than a day at the mountains => Measure of Effectiveness - MOE <= => MOE = sum of tradeoff criteria / total cost <=

30. Creative Systems Engineering Total Cost Life Cycle Costs - LCC LCC = R+D+P+O+M+E+S+T R = Research D = Development P = Production O = Operation M = Maintenance E = Waste S = Shut Down and Decommissioning T = Disposal

31. Creative Systems Engineering Tradeoff Matrix Arch 2 is 14% more effective than Arch 1 Arch N is 7% more effective than Arch 1 Weighted Arch 2 & Arch N are 9% more effective than Arch 1

32. Creative Systems Engineering Sensitivity Analysis Include current approach in tradeoff Include pie-in-the-sky approach in tradeoff Change and zero out weights Change and zero out ratings Tradeoff Matrix allows you to focus on architecture deficiencies and fix or optimize them… What if arch N elements can be moved into arch 2 for criteria 2?

33. Creative Systems Engineering Tradeoff Matrix Fixing Arch 2 by learning from Arch N for Criteria 2 is key Arch 2 is now 28% more effective than Arch 1

34. Creative Systems Engineering Tradeoff Cells Formal Methods based on – Math, Logic, Set Theory, Hard Sciences Semi Formal Methods based on – Empirical Data, Soft Sciences Informal Methods – Everything Else including Common Sense => Based on 5000 Years of Civilization <=

35. Creative Systems Engineering Ideal Architecture Final Architecture is a fully optimized multidimensional transfer function not unlike creating a filter using inductors, capacitors, resisters, and op amps except the equation is summarized in a matrix and captured in study documents...

36. Creative Systems Engineering Ok So What Do I Do From Beginning to the End... The Process

37. Creative Systems Engineering The Process There is an old saying, keep it simple stupid What is buried in this is genius The sheer act of genius takes the complex and makes it simple I did not invent this This was practiced in the last century at remarkable places

38. Creative Systems Engineering Beginning to End Identify system boundary and why it is the boundary – Context diagram Identify key requirements and why you selected them – Top 10 Identify key issues and why you selected them – Top 10 Identify alternatives and why you selected them – 7 plus or minus 2

39. Creative Systems Engineering Beginning to End Draw a picture of each alternative – 1 page Succinctly state the essence of each alternative – 1 page and a list of 5-9 bullets Do a tradeoff of each alternative – Including support for 100 years, etc Apply science and engineering to the tradeoffs – Don't cook the books Identify how you will build each approach – Process, methods, tools, etc

40. Creative Systems Engineering Beginning to End Build a proof of concept prototype – From paper to computer simulations to physical models Mature the prototype at a small operational setting – Try it before you make a mistake Roll out to infrastructure – Slowly and learn There is beauty in diversity – Nothing wrong with multiple approaches and companies Do this like your life depends on it

41. Creative Systems Engineering Minor Problem No one seems to be able to this any more...

42. Creative Systems Engineering Sustainable Development Project The Proposal Hold on to your Seats

43. Creative Systems Engineering Sustainable Development Brundtland Commission defined sustainable development as development that: "meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."

44. Creative Systems Engineering The Proposal is Simple It follows the model of Dr. Vennevar Bushs' seminal work presented to Franklin Roosevelt in the last century. That work is so important that it is included as an Appendix to this book, "Science the Endless Frontier, A Report to the President by Vannevar Bush, Director of the Office of Scientific Research and Development, July 1945".

45. Creative Systems Engineering The Program Charter Identify institutions that can take the lead in Sustainable Development using Creative System Engineering. If none exist then propose structure of such an institution or institutions and how it or they can interact with all other institutions working in this area. Charter also includes where and how Creative System Engineering should be rolled out to existing institutions.

46. Creative Systems Engineering Key Requirements Allow earth to sustain 100 billion people in 100 years Do not compromise current levels of freedom & liberty Uplift humanity so all can live to their fullest potential Increase level of bio diversity Continue to increase highest standard of industrial living Make highest industrial standards of living available to anyone desiring such a life style Most view these requirements as diametrically opposing, that is the challenge

47. Creative Systems Engineering Key Issues and Observations This is a politically charged area and it should NOT be so Humans always did Sustainable Development from step farming to safe water & sewage Time is of the urgency, may not be enough time for traditional science Ph.D. thesis The markets alone will not solve the problems

48. Creative Systems Engineering Key Issues and Observations In many ways markets are cause of problem Regulation and incentives are not the answer, look to history for guidance There are no impartial institutions that can address the sustainable development problem System engineering using science & engineering may help avert disaster in this century

49. Creative Systems Engineering Problem Approach Prepare major policy paper ala Vannevar Bush letter to President Roosevelt Start a literature search of all aspects of sustainable development Start a market survey of all sustainable development projects Establish a library of the literature search and market survey using the web

50. Creative Systems Engineering Problem Approach Identify institutions that might be able to take the lead in sustainable development Identify the level of impartiality of institutions engaged in sustainable development activities Propose a new institution that can take the impartial lead in sustainable development Tradeoff new proposed vs. current institutions for sustainable development lead charter Establish system engineering centers to perform independent no self interest trade studies

51. Creative Systems Engineering Publishing Approaches Sustainable Development Possible with Creative System Engineering

52. Creative Systems Engineering Publishing Approach E-book – Amazon Kindle Traditional Book – Traditional Publishers Wiley Press Vanity Press – Publish on Demand Lulu.com, Createspace.com

53. Creative Systems Engineering Beyond the Book Universities

54. Creative Systems Engineering Beyond the Book University of Pennsylvania - Advisor 08-09 – Sustainable Village in Ghana – EESOM: Electrical Energy Sourcing Optimization Model University of Pennsylvania - Advisor 09-10 – Sustainable Healthcare Architecture Model – Engineering Points4Life – Blueprint for a Sustainable Healthcare IT Architecture – Automotive Fuel Sustainability Drexel University possible curriculum additions

55. Creative Systems Engineering Links www.cassbeth.com/book www.amazon.com/dp/0615216307 www.cassbeth.com www.cassbeth.com/sustainable walt.sobkiw@cassbeth.com

56. Creative Systems Engineering Back Up Slides Various Topics

57. Creative Systems Engineering Final Thoughts It all started with Specification Analysis Tool (SAT) – Download and try it Dont forget the Other Document Analysis Tools – Download and try them Sustainable Development Possible with Creative System Engineering – amazon.com

58. Creative Systems Engineering Policy Services & Rules Broad Approaches – Markets Technology Education Science Government People International Engineering Systems Alternatives Institutions – Academia Government Industry Labs Think Tanks NGO Non Profits Popular Media Technical Media Associations Societal Approaches – Peaceful Sacrifice Stressed Violent Organizational Tools – Technical Process Management Gestalts Implementation Nation State Tools – Policy Legislation Regulation Deregulate Tax Military Departments Resources Proactive Transparency

59. Creative Systems Engineering Policy Services & Rules International Tools – Policy Resources Proactive Social Warnings – General Human Anger Environment Health Economic Earth National Roles – Religion Defense Money Wealth Education Agriculture Health State People Labor International Roles – People Government Industry International Academia Community Money Time Special Interests – Defense Intelligence Food Health Pharmaceuticals Chemicals Mining Energy

60. Creative Systems Engineering Broad Approaches Service 95 Rules grouped into 12 Services If objects examined, counts are zero Primary themes

61. Creative Systems Engineering Broad Approaches Service This is misleading because the count is low Again, basically zero

62. Creative Systems Engineering Other Services

63. Creative Systems Engineering Other Services Click around, look at text blocks, refine searches, gain other insights There are Hits here, you just cant see them

64. Creative Systems Engineering System Engineering Thoughts Does it naturally emerge when challenges are great? Did humans invent it or just observe its emergence? So what is systems engineering? How is it different from product development in an open free market with many competitors? How is it different from product development in a closed market in monopoly or oligopoly? How do utilities fit in? How do non profits fit in?