1. MANAGING MIGRATION FOR SECURITY, TRADE AND THE MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE The New Mobility: Managing Growth, Security and Social Justice International Metropolis Conference Tampere, Finland September 11, 2013

2. North American Labor Mobility? Context: How does the US approach North American relations? Alternative Vision: What policy changes could improve North American competitiveness? Opportunity: What can we expect in the near term?

3. Context Domestic affairs preoccupy American leadership Sovereigntist political right & anti-capitalist political left wary of North American initiatives US policy of small accommodations and large indifference toward US business, Canada & Mexico

4. Context NAFTA Debate and Aftermath (1994-2000): professional visas, employer- linked North American Commission on Labor Cooperation North American Commission (trade ministers) NAFTA Working Groups 1996 immigration reform

5. Context 9/11/2001 and 2008 Financial Crisis shocks (2001-2010) Smart Border Accords (US- Canada, US-Mexico) Security and Prosperity Partnership for North America North American Leaders Meetings Guadalajara Process Failed immigration reform

6. Context Dual-Bilateralism (2010 to date) US-Canada: Beyond the Border Working Group Regulatory Cooperation Council US-Mexico: 21 st Century Border Management Commission High-Level Regulatory Cooperation Council Pending immigration reform

7. Context The North American Disadvantage: No single market for goods, services or labor due to regulatory differences and border barriers

8. Context Lower transportation costs allow goods to move around the world Markets of 400 million or more have internal economies of scale; rest must export to reach scale Compliance costs as important as shipping costs and production costs

9. Alternative Vision Six key elements to achieve a single market in North America in a way that could satisfy the United States: Borders Regulatory Cooperation Labor Mobility Information-sharing Law Enforcement Future Governance (w/o institutions)

10. Alternative Vision (1) Borders as data capture locations supported by enforcement activity within national borders -- a sort of techno-Schengen approach that allows for pattern and anomaly spotting, as well as forensic investigation as intelligence warrants

11. Alternative Vision (2) A negative list approach to regulatory cooperation that pledges full mutual recognition (for our purposes, I would note that this should include credentials and professional qualifications) by a specific date and negotiations on exceptions (which must be justified and defended)

12. Alternative Vision (3) Right-to-work divorced from citizenship, location-based taxation, and infrastructure improvements to support labor mobility

13. Alternative Vision (4) Seamless information sharing related to persons and cargo (with right-to-query protections for privacy and rule of law assurance)

14. Alternative Vision (5) Enforcement initiated by "first-responder" and prosecuted by competent authorities – Integrated Law Enforcement Teams built on Integrated Border/Maritime Enforcement Teams currently in use

15. Alternative Vision (6) Replacement of dual-bilateral approaches with a "North America at Two Speeds" approach that is expressly committed to convergence of standards, practices, regulation and inspection

16. Opportunity Now is not the time, but the hour is near… Congress President Obama Gravitational pull of North America for U.S. leaders

17. Opportunity Factors that suggest optimism: A reform minded Mexican administration that is delivering major reforms at home A steady Canadian government that is pro-US and favors trade and market liberalization

18. Opportunity Factors that suggest optimism: A weak US recovery needs competitiveness boost The rise of a generation that can "assume" North America rather than struggle to imagine it

19. MANAGING MIGRATION FOR SECURITY, TRADE AND THE MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE The New Mobility: Managing Growth, Security and Social Justice International Metropolis Conference Tampere, Finland September 11, 2013