1. Northwest Tennessee Workforce Study Business and Economic Research Center Jennings A. Jones College of Business Middle Tennessee State University

2. Northwest Tennessee Workforce Study Business and Economic Research Center David Penn, Director Murat Arik, Associate Director Susan Harmon, Associate Professor, Marketing

3. Overview of Study  Current economic structure  Preparedness to grow  Strengths and weaknesses

4. Research Methods  Analysis of population, employment, income, and wage trends  Survey of local employers  Survey of workforce professionals  Focus group interviews

5. Research Method Published Data Surveys Focus Groups

6. Study Area Seven counties stretching from the Memphis suburbs north to Kentucky. Represent between 3% and 4% of Tennessee employment, labor force, and population.

7. Context  Important trends – Increasing importance of trade.  Foreign-made goods more in demand.  Exports also growing quickly.  International trade share of GDP on the rise.

8. Context  Important trends – Information technology revolution.  IT sector responsible for large share of recent growth.  Widespread usage of IT has reduced production costs, increased productivity.

9. Context  Consequences Competition much more intense than ten or twenty years ago. Companies have little pricing power.

10. Context  Implications Pressure to increase productivity will continue. Pressure to reduce production costs will continue.

11. Context  Results More consolidations, downsizing, outsourcing. Productivity will be a critical factor; can be enhanced with continuing education, training. Reducing turnover, cutting fixed costs also helpful in increasing productivity.

12. Current Structure Population, income, employment Among other Tennessee workforce areas, per capita income is one of lowest and unemployment rate one of the highest. Growth of population and labor force flat, lag state growth rate. Personal income growth also lags state growth rate.

13. Current Structure Industrial Distribution Much more dependent on manufacturing as a source of employment and payroll than the rest of the state, about twice as important as for Tennessee.

14. Current Structure Educational Attainment Bachelor’s degree or higher – Tennessee: 19.6% NW Tennessee:7.6% - 12.0% Less than high school – Tennessee: 24.1% NW Tennessee: 25.4% - 36.1%

15. Current Employment Status

16. Current Employment Trends

17. Impacts on payroll employment vary by region of state. Tennessee down 2.5% from peak in Jan 2000 to June 2003. Northwest counties down 8.2% from Jan 2000 peak.

18. Strengths and Weaknesses Weaknesses Lack of industrial diversity Not enough resources for post-secondary education Low educational attainment Weak regional cooperation

19. Strengths and Weaknesses Workforce Professionals Weak regional cooperation

20. Strengths and Weaknesses Strengths Strong work ethic Location There are a lot of people here who do care about other people. It is a strong community in that respect. I think we have some positives; we just need to sell those positives to other people.

21. Preparedness to Grow Employers’ Viewpoint Skills in new hires Reading – Not a problem: 34% Moderate problem: 18% High to critical problem: 6% Math – Not a problem: 26% Moderate problem: 28% High to critical problem: 10%

22. Preparedness to Grow Employers’ Viewpoint Skills in new hires Writing – Not a problem: 18% Moderate problem: 33% High to critical problem: 9% Soft Skills – Not a problem: 10% Moderate problem: 31% High to critical problem: 24%

23. Preparedness to Grow Employers’ Viewpoint Soft Skills Right now, in banking, a high school degree is not enough for the technical skills they need, communication skills, people skills, soft skills are not there...just things that a lot of us who are older learned at home, such as people skills, communication skills, how to dress.

24. Employers’ View

25. Registered Nurse Licensed Practical Nurse Truck Driver Maintenance Worker Sales Representative Teller Customer Service Representative Occupations in shortest supply: Receptionist/Clerk Machinist Tool and Die Maker Computer Operator Laborer Welder/Fabricator

26. Employers’ Viewpoint

28. For occupations in shortest supply: Just 13.4% of jobs could be filled by workers with less than high school diploma. These workers comprise 31.1% of the Northwest Tennessee workforce.

29. Employers’ Viewpoint For occupations in shortest supply: 17.6% of jobs will be filled by workers with at least a Bachelor’s degree (23.2% for large employers). These workers comprise 10.1% of the Northwest Tennessee workforce.

30. Employers’ View - Growth Table 40. Desired Level of Employment 10 Years from Now Level of EmploymentPercent Fewer Employees13.1 About the Same Number18.3 Up to 50 Percent More42.3 51 Percent to 100 Percent More17.5 More Than 100 Percent More8.8

31. Employers’ View – Hiring Needs Demand for workers with less than high school education will drop sharply during the next ten years. Demand for workers with a high school degree will not grow as quickly as for those with more education and training.

32. Employers’ View - Constraints

34. Employers’ Concerns Generally optimistic about long-run future. Concerned about workers’ compensation costs. Want to find a way to keep more young people in the area. Concerned about costs of health care.

35. Preparedness to Grow Uncontrollable factors Growth Controllable factors Markets trends Competition Quality of human resources Infrastructure Cultural and recreational amenities

36. Are We Prepared? Context for Northwest Tennessee  Future jobs will require broader skills Mathematics Communication Computer skills Analytical reasoning Creativity

37. Are We Prepared? Context for Northwest Tennessee  A broadly skilled workforce is more able to adapt to changing economic conditions. Very difficult to identify winners with any degree of certainty. Workers with broad skills have better chance of success. Workforce better prepared to take advantage of opportunities that arise.

38. Final Thoughts Growth is what happens to us. Economic development is nurtured from within.

39. Business and Economic Research Center www.mtsu.edu/~berc Midstate Indicators Tennessee’s Business Global Commerce Special studies and impact analyses