Understanding America: Values-Based Analysis for Political, Economic, Social, & Cultural Findings Paul H. Ray, Ph.D. firstname.lastname@example.org paul@ culturalcreatives.org
Conventional Population Analysis Uses Demographics Weve been doing it for 50-80 years Almost a tradition in Govt and Biz Its cheap, BUT an ineffective predictor Values are much better predictors to real behaviors: consumers, citizens, voters Would demographics say who supports terrorists? - Hardly
Look at Values & See 50 years of Cultural Change, Worldwide Floods of new information: Awareness of Western Lifestyles Planetary Ecology Fears Jobs, Health and Education Concerns Organic food vs Environmental-poisons Spiritual traditions from everywhere Nuclear, infotech, biotech, nanotech - all go from promise to threats
Values Reflect 50 years of Cultural Change Worldwide Nuclear Fears Worldwide Global Awareness of Whole Populations Visibility of Western Lifestyles Worldwide Willingness to move beyond Welfare State Environmental Awareness Goes Ecological Worldwide Peace Movement Emerges Womens Roles/Views Emerge Worldwide
Beyond Modern Vs. Traditional: A New Third Culture in the West Womens values and concerns going public for the first time in recorded history The role of the new social movements and consciousness movements in educating the Western world over the past 40 years
Cultural Change from New Social Movements Two effects of cultural changes that grew out of 40 years of new social movements. 1.The Cultural Side of the movements gave rise to 50 million Cultural Creatives. 2.The Political Side has taken us beyond Left and Right to 2-dimensional politics.
1. Massive Research Evidence about the Cultural Creatives: Carriers of cultural change 14 years of Values-and-Lifestyles Survey Research & Focus Groups –Over 150,000 people surveyed: national & regional, many topics –500+ values-related focus groups 60 in-depth interviews, 4-6 hours each
The Cultural Creatives- Who They Are Theyre literally creating a whole new culture for our time 26% of adults in United States –50 million people 30-35% of adults in Western Europe –80-90 million people
Secular, materialist The big city Hip, up to date Style & efficiency Cary Grant Lauren Bacall 50%TRADITIONALS Conservative, pious Small town, country Square, out of date Character, reliability Jimmy Stewart June Allyson 1. The Culture Wars 50 Years Ago 50% MODERNS
1. There are 3 Subcultures Today TraditionalsTraditionals24.5% ModernsModerns 49.4% CulturalCultural Creatives26.1% Total:100% Traditionals declined from half to under a quarter, but Moderns didnt win...
ValueGraphics A Subculture has different: Values = Most important life priorities Worldview = How Life works. Whats real. What Life is all about Lifestyle = What to buy. How to live
1. Cultural Creatives Values Ecology, beyond environmentalism Planetary awareness Social Responsibility & Concerns Authenticity Relationships, Helping others Personal Growth, Spirituality Feminism
They Reject Materialism, Status-oriented Consumption, Most Ads, Most TV, Big Media Religious Right
Demographics Are Almost UselessValues Go Deeper CCs a bit more upscale, overall wide range of income, education, occupation Close to national averages on age, race, ethnicity, region BUT 60% women overall Core group (opinion leaders) are 67% women, or 2:1 women:men :-) Where are all the good men?
ORIGINS: All the new social movements of past 40 years Civil Rights, Social Justice Peace (1960 to 1990, and Now, again) Womens (to Eco-Fem, Fem-Spiritual) Environmental, becoming Ecology Planetary: Anti-globalization, Hunger Personal growth & New spirituality Alternative Health Care Organic Food & Natural Everything
Converging Movements 40-80% Overlap in Broad Constituencies of any pair of social movements A typical Cultural Creative identifies with positions of half a dozen movements All movements now share the same values and worldview = the Cultural Creatives All reframe the issues in the same ways. Local cooperation of activists National organizations fail to cooperate
2. New Social Movements that generated Cultural Creatives also generated New Political Demand Anti-Globalization, and now, Anti-War Pro-EcologyBeyond Environmentalism Ecology over Economy/Limits to Growth Alternative Health Care Feminism and Womens Perspectives Social Justice and Minority Rights Organic Food and Natural Everything Want to Be ActivistSocially Contribute Anti-Corporate Sentiment
Statistics 101... on Right vs Left When only the tails of a distribution are meaningful, but the mean of that distribution isnt meaningful... … then either youve got a bad measure, … or you need additional measures to explain whats going on in the middle. A good second dimension should be orthogonal (at a right angle) to the first
Conventional Political Wisdom says: These survey variables should be one Left-Right dimension. They arent. Self-identify as Liberal or Conservative Religious Right: pro-con Civil Liberties: pro-con Self-identify as Traditional, or not Ecological Sustainability: pro-con National Health Care: pro-con Big Business: pro-con Limits to Growth: pro-con Feminism: pro-con
In fact, the data shows two dimensions: 1.Liberals vs. Social Conservatives Self-identify as Liberal-Conservative Religious Right: pro-con Civil Liberties: pro-con Self-identify as Traditional, or not 2. In Front vs. Business Conservatives Ecological Sustainability: pro-con National Health Care: pro-con Big Business: pro-con Limits to Growth: pro-con Feminism: pro-con
Political North: Demographics 36%=70 Million Adult Americans 56% Female More in Northeast, Upper Midwest, Pacific Coast, fewest in Mountain States 15% people of color 9% Hispanic Same as National distribution on Age, Income, Education, Occupation
Political North: Basic Political Facts Among Likely Voters, Political North is: 45% = 55 Million Voters 56% of all Swing Voters Swing Voters = 53% of Political North 17% Liberal vs. 33% Conservative 39% Center, 10% Beyond Left-Right 37% Democrat vs. 29% Republican 27% Independent, 3% 3rd Party
Political North: Basic Political Facts In the whole adult population, North is: 18% Liberal* vs. 33% Conservative 39% Center, 11% Beyond Left-Right 39% Democrat vs. 28%Republican 27% Independent, 3% 3rd Party Compare to Voters: Theyre the same. *Both Left and Right can call North issues Left, but most dont identify with the Left
Political North: Basic Facts A low marginal cost to mobilizing them: Volunteer more often and more hours, Give more money to good causes, Want to get actively involved Involved in more New Social Movement constituencies, and believe their worldviews Care more about changing the culture Want politics to deal more with the real emerging problems threatening our future
A Change in Political Culture Identify less with either Left or Right Planetary more than nationalistic interests Ecological sustainability, not sentimental environmentalism, resource management Feminism rather than heroic models Personal growth over personal ambition Condemn corrupt, globalizing mega- corporations more than Religious Right Get big corporate money out of politics Protect a positive future for our children
Political Norths Voters Show Unmet Political Demand Their most important issues are all outside the box to Washington politics None of their big issues were in the last 4 national election campaigns This is the equivalent of political market failure. Politics abhores a vacuum even more than Nature does. Lincolns first political party was Whig. Remember the Whigs? Parties can dieLincolns first political party was Whig. Remember the Whigs? Parties can die.
Political Norths Voters Show Unmet Political Demand Unimpressed with the old pols: Inauthentic, psychologically primitive: Too much blaming, shaming, posturing, hatred/conflict-driven, violence imagery Bereft of innovative, or win-win ideas Macho, not women-friendly, emotionally undeveloped, spiritually empty Nationalistic rather than planet-oriented
Political Norths Voters Show Unmet Political Demand Dont like the political meetings: Crummy group dynamics, factionalism Vicious infighting and power struggles Doctrinaire positions and rhetoric Self-justifying and psychologically naïve Money-driven strategies Professionals only; poor use of volunteers
Political Norths Voters Show Unmet Political Demand Dont like the political literature: No more impressed with Left than Right Doctrinaire positions and rhetoric Projecting ones evil onto the other side Self-justifying and denigrating others Old rhetoric no one believes any more Not interested in rebuilding community
Unmet Political Demand: The campaign process doesnt work No real way for citizens to get involved in professionally run campaigns Campaign seasons go on too long too tedious to pay continuing attention Negativity of news coverage cuts turnout personalities and horse races fail to cover issues important to voters Big-money-power corrupts all politics People-power is nowhere
Political Norths Big Hot Button: 80% fear their children or grandchildren will grow up in a worse world than they did. Deep anxiety over the next 20 years. Dont believe politicians will address the key issues of our longer term future. Do believe that Big Business is usually the main problem AND that were all implicated. See the Lefts favorite solutions as ineffectual, and the Rights as harmful.
What they want: Big Themes Real innovations for ecological sustainability Better education for all the children Better health care; cleaner food, air and water; less risk of environmental illness Get big corporate money out of politics Good hard news political coverage by the media More psychological maturity in politics Beyond moralizing and economic payoffs, to serve their new social and lifestyle concerns New rules of the game, and better players
Battleground States Swing Voters New Progressives are 58% of Swing Voters in the 18 Battleground States: Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Washington, Wisconsin * Underlined = 10+ Electoral votes
Similar Kinds of Results from European Values Surveys See Paul Abramson & Ronald Inglehart, Values Change in Global Perspective, University of Michigan Press, 1995 Ronald Inglehart, Modernization and Postmodernization: Cultural, Economic & Political Change in 43 Societies, Princeton Univ. Press, 1997
Paul H. Ray, Ph.D. Co-Chairman, Forum for a Wise Civilization, The Global Academy 101 Bishop Ct. Novato, CA 94945 415-897-2894 email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org