1. Water and International Security: Definitions, History, and Future Risks Dr. Peter H. Gleick www.pacinst.org Pacific Institute, Oakland, California Tufts University February 2005

2. Water and Conflict: Conclusions  There is a long history of conflicts over fresh water.  Such conflicts have taken many forms.  The risks of water-related disputes are growing.  But: water can also be a cause for cooperation, negotiation, and agreement.

3. Key Concepts and Issues  “Environmental Security”  Water and conflict  “Water Wars”  International Rivers  Shared watersheds/watercourses  Environmental agreements and treaties

4. Environment and Security  Outgrowth of the ending of the Cold War (mid-1980s);  Outgrowth of the improved understanding of environmental issues;  Marked by a rich, albeit cantankerous political science debate;  Water piece enriched by diverse case studies.

5.  Fresh water is widely shared internationally. –Half of all land area on Earth –Over 260 “international river basins”  There is growing competition for water. –Rising populations –Rising demand from all sectors  International efforts to resolve water-related disputes are often inadequate. Water and Conflict: Critical Issues

6.  Water as a goal –Middle East (2700 BPE to present)  Water as a weapon –Han River, Korea; Ataturk Dam  Water systems as targets –WWII, Vietnam, Persian Gulf, Iraq  Water in development disputes –Apartheid SA, Cauvery River, Gabcikovo “Water Wars?” Or More Complex? Chronology of water conflicts: www.worldwater.org www.worldwater.org

7. Continent International Basins Africa60 North/Central America39 South America39 Asia51 Europe72 Totals261 Number of International River Basins, by Continent Source: Wolf et al. 1999

8. Danube18 Congo13 Niger 11 Nile 10 Zambezi9 Lake Chad 8 Aral Sea8 Rhine8 Amazon8 Volta6 Jordan6 Mekong6 Tigris/Euphrates6 Kura-Araks6 Ganges/Brahmaputra5 Neman5 Vistula/Wista5 La Plata5 Transboundary Rivers Shared by Five or More States

9. New Concerns/New Challenges?  Water and economic development: poverty, allocation.  Subnational, state-to-state, ethnic, local disputes are all increasingly common.  Water-related acts of terrorism.

10. Subnational Water Conflicts; Terrorism Los Angeles Aqueduct, Alabama Gates Credit: G.D.Bain 1991 Meuse River Vaal Dam, South Africa, DWAF

11.  Technical (scarcity) * –Improve efficiency of water use in all sectors –Explore new supply options  Economic (allocation) –Reduce water subsidies; re-evaluate rates –Re-evaluate agricultural policies  Institutional (management) –Joint basin management –Dispute resolution mechanisms  Political * –Effective and comprehensive joint agreements –Equitable water rights allocations and control Reducing the Risks of Water Conflicts

12. The “productivity” of water use can be greatly increased

13. Economic Productivity of Water: U.S.

14. Economic Productivity of Water: Hong Kong

15. Political Approaches: Treaties  Many specific international river basin treaties, e.g., –The Nile (the Sudan and Egypt) –The Colorado (the U.S. and Mexico) –The Jordan (Israel and Jordan) –The Ganges/Brahmaputra (India and Bangladesh) Mixed success; continued challenges

16.  Obligation to Share Data  Obligation to Resolve Disputes Peacefully  Equitable Utilization of Water  Prevention of Significant Harm  Obligation to Notify and Inform  Cooperative Management UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses (1997) Political Approaches: General Principles of International Water Law

17. Conclusions: Water, Conflict, and Cooperation  There is a long history of both conflict and cooperation over fresh water resources.  New challenges are developing.  Will our abilities to reach agreement and cooperation keep pace with the developing challenges?

18. Dr. Peter H. Gleick www.pacinst.org Pacific Institute, Oakland, California See also: www.worldwater.org