1. © European Communities, 2007 The Brazilian construction sector has recently been showing intense growth, and its dynamism is due to institutional changes and evolution in the macroeconomic scenario. The increasing volume of new constructions has put pressure on the construction materials sectors and some consequences of this situation have already been noticed, such as local supply problems and variation in the price of some materials. This explorative research is inserted in this scenario and aims to make a diagnosis of the production and sales sectors of materials in the house construction production chain, using a method based on the concept of technological foresight. The objective of this poster is to describe the application of this method and to present some main results, like the performance analysis, identification of critical factors, their respective driving and restrictive forces. These results are elements to be used in prospective studies in this sector. First diagnostic step Characterization of the building materials sector This part of the research, which aims to establish a structure model of the building materials sector in Brazil, was based on the analysis of the classifications of this industrial sector and on fundamental concepts used in the technological foresight studies of Castro & Lima. Contact Heitor Cesar R. Haga Department of Civil Construction Engineering, Escola Politécnica of Universidade de São Paulo - Brazil Tel. +55 11 3091 5459 Fax +55 11 3091 5715 http://heitorhaga.pcc.usp.br/ E-mail: heitor.haga@poli.usp.brheitor.haga@poli.usp.br NOTES 1.Poster Title Replace the mock-up text of the poster title (”Joint Research Centre”) with the text of your own title. Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Keep the flush-right justification. Set it in Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, in Arial, Helvetica or Verdana – plain or bold. 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Place it elsewhere only if unavoidable for layout reasons, but in that case try, at least, to align it with some main element of the poster. 5.Additional Logos Should you need to display additional logos (e.g., of partner organizations or universities), reduce or enlarge them to a height within those of the JRC logo and the Directorate or Institute logo. Place any additional logos on the bottom of the poster, evenly spaced between the JRC and (if there is one) the Directorate or Institute logo, and vertically centred with them. 2008 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE The method is based on bibliographical and descriptive researches, also using field data collection to gather up-to-date information. The data were obtained in a review of the bibliography and of specific data about production and sales in the sector; interviews were also conducted with representatives of the production chains of the materials under analysis. The conceptual model proposed by Castro & Lima (2001) of technological foresight method for production chain analysis was adopted. Figure 1. Basic structure model of the building materials sector Diagnosis of the production and sales sectors of materials in the Brazilian house construction production chain: contributions for the development of technological foresight studies ORGANIZATIONAL AND INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT BASIC MATERIALS COMPONENTS SUBSYSTEMS MANUFACTURE CHAINS outside the construction complex INDUSTRIALIZATION ASSOCIATION AND ASSEMBLY EXTRACTION AND BENEFICIATION SAND AGGREGATE GYPSUM LIMESTONE CEMENT Cement mass and industrialized concrete Premolded concrete elements Prefabricated facades Prefabricated toilets Prefabricated structures Building stones CLAY RED CERAMIC WHITE CERAMIC GLASS WOOD Plywood (concrete form) WOOD panels WOOD door and window frames Industrial plywood (construction) IRON Bars and frames STEEL structures STEEL frames Flat glass ALUMINUM ALLUMINUM frames COPPER Wires and cables ZINC Ironware PETROCHEMICAL PVC tubes PVC frames Paints SECTORDivisionDegree of impact Critical factorsForces Cr* Sand And Aggregate H Transportation cost Informality index Productive capacity (general) Government-level planning (+) Excessive environmental requirements (-) Productive capacity of the machine and equipment sector (+) and environmental requirements (-) Ef WoodH Transportation cost Product quality for construction Productive capacity Government-level planning (+) Poor managerial and entrepreneurial capacity (-) Government incentives for reforestation (+) Excessive environmental requirements (-) Ef Limestone HMHHMH Transportation cost Conformity index Availability of energy materials High taxes (-) Index of participants in quality programs (+) Energy matrix (+) Ef/C GypsumHTransportation cost (logistics)Investments on transportation infrastructure (+)Ef CeramicRedH Transportation cost Operational costs High taxes (-) Ef/C CeramicWhiteMTransportation cost (logistics)Investments on transportation infrastructure (+)Ef GlassMTransportation costInvestments on infrastructureEf CementM Transportation cost Productive capacity (specific regions) Productive capacity (new plants) High taxes (-) Availability of credit for the purchase of machines to expand productive capacity (+) Excessive environmental requirements (-) Ef IronBars and framesMTransportation cost (logistics)Investments on transportation infrastructure (+)Ef Building stones M Transportation cost (logistics)Investments on transportation infrastructure (+) Ef Aluminum Door and window frames L Transportation cost (logistics)Investments on transportation infrastructure (+) Ef CopperWiresLTransportation costInvestments on infrastructureEf ZincIronwareLTransportation costInvestments on infrastructureEf Chemical and Petrochemical PVCL Lack of raw material (from the petrochemical sector) Energy matrix (+) Ef PaintsL Lack of raw material (monomers of chemical sector and packaging) Energy matrix (+) Ef Sales (in general) Transportation cost (logistics) Worker turnover Speculative purchase Investments on transportation infrastructure (+) Rigidity of labor laws (-) Mechanisms to avoid speculation (+) Ef Table 1: Critical Factors and forces Conclusions The research shows that all segments of the Brazilian construction sector are focusing their efforts to obtain production capacity efficiency, so as to guarantee the supply of their products. The scarcity of data and knowledge regarding the distribution of building materials leads to the conclusion that the exercise undertaken in this research study - containing important pointers for undertaking further diagnostic and prognostic studies - could certainly provide valuable information for formulating strategies for the development of the housing construction production chain and its components/sectors in Brazil. It can be concluded that the adopted method shows strong potential to be used to analyze production chains in the construction materials industry for developing countries.