2. EXISTENT COPING STRATEGIES AS ANALOGUE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN SOUTH WESTERN NIGERIA BY ADESINA F.A; AINA, I.O., ODEBIYI I.A. & ADEJUWON J.O. (AF23) Nigeria

3. Rain-fed agriculture is predominant in Nigeria. The constraining factors include: Delayed onset of the growing season Premature termination of the rainy season Unusually long dry spells within the growing season These constraints could be amplified in the probable event that the climates of the country change and more adverse climatic conditions replace the ones to which people are already familiar with.

4.  The exact nature and direction of the change are still largely speculative. Scenarios are suggesting medium to large scale departures from the norm.  However, it is certain that they are likely to lead to significant disruptions of human activities especially those that are largely weather-dependent such as agriculture.

5. The climate change projection for southern Nigeria is that  it is likely to get wetter;  temperatures may rise by between 1 & 2.5 o C These will precipitate serious environmental changes that could further impact agricultural activities negatively.

6. Some of the impacts may include  widespread floods resulting from persistent heavy showers;  significant increase in soil water loss through heightened evapo-transpiration induced by accentuated air temperatures;

7.  more devastating storm events powered by increased temperatures in the environment;  Greater incidences of pests & diseases that luxuriate under hot humid conditions.

8. In these probable circumstances, the local people must be ready to live with new realities. If climate change is inevitable, then so is adaptation to the change. It is important however to have effective strategies that are in tune with local conditions. One way of looking at this from research point of view is to explore ways by which people presently cope with adverse environmental conditions.

9. Significance of the study Facilitates a bottom-up approach to identifying effective adaptation strategies i.e. including the views of some of the “ exposure ” units

10. TThe objectives of this study are thus to: i. Identify and describe from the point of view of the local people, environmental problems currently being experienced or that were experienced in recent past and their causes; i ii Describe the strategies that were adopted or being adopted to cope with the effects of such problems; iii Evaluate the effectiveness of the coping strategies.

11. Location: Three rural areas adjoining Ibadan, Akure and Offa respectively in southwestern Nigeria Population: Between 2000 & 3500 Vegetation: Tropical Rainforest. Climate: Humid with more than 200 growing days. e

12. Study area cont. Local Economy: Cash & food crop farming Cocoa, oil palm, cassava, maize important. Processing of garri and oil palm is important and dominated by women. Infrastructures: In bad shape Inhabitants: Mainly Yoruba

13. MAP OF THE STUDY AREA Map of the Study Area

14. Data were collected using qualitative tools in a Rapid Rural Appraisal procedure. The key instruments used were Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) guided by a set of questions around the concept of well being, environmental problems and coping strategies. Eight of such FGDs were organized in each of the settlements. Data were collected using qualitative tools in a Rapid Rural Appraisal procedure. The key instruments used were Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) guided by a set of questions around the concept of well being, environmental problems and coping strategies. Eight of such FGDs were organized in each of the settlements.

15. Methodology cont. In-depth Interviews conducted for randomly selected household heads and opinion leaders. Thirty such interviews were conducted in each settlement.

16. DATA ANALYSIS i.Tallying of responses to obtain frequency of specific responses and ranking of options; ii.Content analysis of FGDs and interviews using the TEXT BASE ALPHA software.

17. RESULTS i.Conceptualisation of living well (being rich)- This is important as adverse conditions are expected to impact on it. Living well implies having luxury goods e.g. TV, radio & being able to fulfil social responsibilities. Being poor is the opposite. There are the neither rich nor poor in between.

18. 2.Environmental Problems Problems i. Delayed rains ii. Bush fires iii. Storms iv. Deforestation v. Poor soil fertility vi. Conflicts vii. Waste viii. Scarcity of land ix. Theft of products x. Insufficient water Causes Act of God Arson Act of God Pop. pressure Lack of fertilizer Invading herdsmen Cassava processing Population growth Long dry season

19. River Valley – completely dry in the dry season

20. Scorching effect of bush fire

21. Water quality declines with the progress of the dry season

22. 3. Key Adaptation Strategies  Use of wetlands for dry season farming;  Planting early maturing crops to take advantage of short rainy season;  Digging wells deeper to enable them produce water in the dry seasons;  Planting sturdier varieties of crops that can resist rainstorms.  Taking loans to buy farm inputs and foods during the “hunger season”;  Mounting joint control & prevention of bush fires by the community;  Using fertilizers to enhance productivity of crops.

23. Wetland (akuro) farming in one of the sites in the dry season

24. 4.Level of local adaptive capacities The adaptation strategies identified are capable of taking the people through privation but are limited in two respects: (i)Not everyone can use all the strategies all the time e.g not everyone has access to loans in time of need; (ii)Not all the strategies are accessible to the people e.g. not every farmer can have access to wetlands.

25. Level of local adaptive capabilities cont. These suggest that the contemporary adaptive capacities are low. They need to be enhanced by making the strategies effective through research & proactive intervention of govt. e.g. in digging wells, providing good varieties of crop like the IITA’s cassava.

26. Palm oil processing site in one the villages

27. Palm fruit pressing machine reduces labour in the traditional method of oil processing

28. 5.Making adaptation choices Procedure followed include an i.assessment of the acceptability of each options via evaluating the ranking of the options by the local people; ii. determination of the cost of strengthening each of the options to make them effective..

29. iii. Assessment of the limitations of each of the options A weighting of these assessments is done to adequately track the contribution of each of the elements to decision making Provision of hybrid variety & Loan facility are the most important. Though the 2 nd is cheaper, hybrid is more efficient.