1. Stressed by Strife: ASEAN from Pattaya to Preah Vihear Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak Associate Professor and Director Institute of Security and Int’l Studies Faculty of Political Science Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok Visiting Scholar, CDDRL-Humanities Center, 26 April 2010

2. Presentation outline 1. Southeast Asia as a region 2. Southeast Asia as an organization 3. Domestic strife and regional effects 4. Premises and prospects

3. 1. Southeast Asia as A Region 1.1 Comparative politics of Southeast Asia 570 million people (ASEAN Sec figure); GDP: $1.5trn 11 countries (ASEAN + East Timor) All post-colonial, except Siam/Thailand Multi-ethnic; multi-religious; multi-lingual All influenced by overseas Chinese All affected by Japan’s Co-Prosperity Sphere in WWII Postwar independence movements and interstate conflicts in the region

4. 1. Southeast Asia as A Region (cont.) 1.2 Diverse and disparate regime types Absolute monarchy: Brunei Constitutional monarchy: Cambodia, Malaysia (federal), Thailand Socialist: Laos and Vietnam Military authoritarian: Burma/Myanmar Republic: Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, (East Timor)

5. 1. Southeast Asia as A Region (cont.) 1.3 Vibrant economic development tamed tigers?; formerly ASEAN Four; Asian Values?; East Asian Miracle 1997-98 economic crisis; recovery and new trajectory 1.4 Political change and continuity: A mixed bag of democratization and autocracy Indonesia/Malaysia/Philippines/Thailand/Sin gapore/Cambodia Brunei/Laos/Vietnam/Burma-Myanmar 1.5 Internal conflicts and insurgencies in Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand

6. 2. Southeast Asia as An Organization 2.1 International relations of Southeast Asia 2.2 Evolution and development: Malphilindo; ASA; SEATO; ASEAN Why ASEAN?: Konfrontasi; major powers/national development; ethnic and power balance 2.3 ASEAN as longest regional vehicle after 42 years; Cold War during 1967-87; economic exuberance in 1987-97; APEC (1989); AFTA (1992); ARF (1994) 2.4 No War in ASEAN; just border tensions and skirmishes

7. 2. Southeast Asia as An Organization (cont.) 2.5 Expansion: Brunei (1984); Vietnam (1995); Laos and Burma/Myanmar (1997); Cambodia (1999) 2.6 Miracle-Meltdown; Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) under ASEAN Plus Three (APT) from 1998 2.7 GWOT (2001-08); Second Front; Separatist insurgencies 2.8 ASEAN Charter (December 2008); legal entity; 3 pillars in APSC, AEC and ASCC; ASEAN Community by 2015

8. 2. Southeast Asia as An Organization (cont.) 2.9 Underlying dynamics of charter: Maintaining relevance ASEAN charter as codification of norms Non-interference with democratizing principles (Article 1: 7) ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICOHR); People-centered ASEAN? A personal encounter

9. 3. Domestic strife and regional effects Perennial Burma/Myanmar albatross; ASSK’s confinement; elections in 2010 Indonesia’s frustration Vietnam’s domestic concerns Cambodia’s posture Singapore’s imperative Malaysia’s growing polarization Philippines’ constraints Thailand’s nadir

10. 3. Domestic strife and regional effects (cont.) Thai crisis and Thai chairmanship of ASEAN in mid 2008-09; two years for 4 th East Asia Summit (EAS) From Pattaya to Preah Vihear Preah Vihear v. Phra Viharn Hun Sen-Thaksin and Hun Sen-Abhisit Thailand’s founding pillar to weakest link (ASSK’s comment and 16 th summit machinations in April 2010)

11. 3. Domestic strife and regional effects (cont.) ASEAN at 42; a midlife crossroads ASEAN Plus Three; China’s orbit East Asian Community; Japan’s timid vision East Asia Summit (ASEAN+6) East Asia Summit Plus US and Russia? Australia’s Asia-Pacific Community

12. 3. Domestic strife and regional effects (cont.) APEC; ARF (no PD); AFTA (largest markets still external) Trends in bilateral FTAs Trilateral Summit in NEAsia; Six-Party Talks (SPT) sometimes efficacious ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) Shangri-La Dialogue Asian Six in G-20 An architectural search for regional order

13. 4. Premises and prospects Centrality without performance? Evolution of the “ASEAN Way” Interests, institutions and identity Domestic constraints on regionalism Implications for the US (hub-spokes no more?) Glass half-empty or half-full Shallow and patchy integration (e.g. NTS) but won’t go away