1. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Integrated Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural Analysis for Water Security 24 February 2012 ME Red Team Meeting Briefer: Distribution Statement: FOUO 1

2. Challenge Statement Water Security Problem Statement: The inability to anticipate the social consequences of hydrological events or trends compromises decision-making regarding water resources investment and increases the likelihood of unintended social impacts occurring as a result of infrastructure construction and disaster relief operations. Challenges: Predicting social and hydrological vulnerability. Existing land use and economic models are based on Western principles and concepts and are insufficient for understanding or forecasting futures in other contexts. Objectives: Near term (FY17): Water security and its socio- cultural effects are included in theater campaign plans produced by combatant commands, Army infrastructure investment plans and disaster relief operations. Challenge Boundary Conditions: Who: COCOM planners and engineers What: Phase 0 theater campaign plans and infrastructure investment decisions must include social consequences of hydrological events or trends How: Develop integrated Hydrologic and Socio- Cultural (Hydro-SC) analyses; work with Army/COCOM stakeholders to deliver usable tools. FOUO 2

3. Water Security Composite decision support tool Social Consequences and Perception Economic Analysis Engineering Design High-Fidelity Hydrologic Prediction Assessment Tools – primarily pre- conflict analysis of water and social vulnerability FOUO 3 Decision Support Tools – primarily in- and post-conflict support for water resources infrastructure decisions

4. FOUO Flooding causes social unrest and potential mass migration Drought may cause collapse of agriculture and water supply systems The US Army provides disaster relief and must make plans for staging and logistics Changes to water resources infrastructure can cause social instability COCOMs must: anticipate and understand instabilities and vulnerabilities in their areas of operation plan and execute disaster relief efforts develop, compare, and prioritize Presently, hydrologic analyses to support these efforts are possible, but are slow to build, limited in size Socio-cultural analysis tools do not identify potential socio-cultural consequences of water-related stressors. DoD spends billions of dollars on capacity building both during and after conflict. These investment decisions are not always made in a way that is culturally aware. 4 Water Security Baseline

5. 5 Commander’s Emergency Response Program (CERP) Projects may include: –Agriculture/Irrigation projects to increase agricultural production or cooperative agricultural programs, including irrigation systems –Reforestation (fruit and nut) producing trees, timber production, and general reforestation –Wind breaks for fields –Pesticide control for crops –Animal husbandry practices –Veterinary clinics, supplies, and care for animals –Seeds for planting –Purchase of initial, parent livestock for herds –Animal health –Animal production –Aquaculture –Fish farms –Conservation programs –Biotechnology –Purchase of farm equipment or implements –Irrigation wells –Irrigation ditches –Canal cleanup –Water pumps –Siphon tubes –Terracing development and construction –Sprinkler irrigation –Dust suppression –Central pivot –Sub-irrigation –Aquifer development –Agricultural training facilities and demonstration farms As of last April, the US Army had spent $2.64B in Afghanistan and $3.98B in Iraq

6. Concept/Vision FOUO Water Security Adapting Socio- Cultural Models Extending Hydrologic Models Model Coupling and Application Decision Support Adapt and Incorporate Multi-Resolution, Locally-Relevant Definitions Antecedent Conditions Coping Responses – ability to manage within expected levels/variability of stress Preparedness Absorptive Capacity – ability to return to normal conditions after a perturbation Adaptive Resilience – ability to transform to a new configuration to address changing conditions Advanced Hydrologic simulation in Unguaged Basins LIS-based capability for basin-scale hydrological analysis using distributed parameter hydrological models Multi-fidelity, continuum- mechanics based models with model reduction Model initialization and parameterization from remotely sensed-data Integrated Hydro-SC analysis Data and model preparation to deliver socio-culturally attuned representations of vulnerability and resilience at resolution commensurate with hydrological models. One-way coupling: Hydrologic events and infrastructure changes drive socio-cultural response Full coupling: incorporate the impact of socio-cultural dynamics on hydrologic system and its response Bringing Hydro-SC analysis to bear in planning and engineering decisions Decision support toolbox with Hydro-SC modeling and analysis at the watershed scale Water resources + socio- cultural input to alternatives comparison Available on reimbursable basis or through reachback 6 Flood Risk Social Vulnerability Index

7. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Phase I: Hydro-SC for Assessing Hydrologically-Driven Vulnerability The notion of water security refers both to the capacity of a population to sustain access to water resources and its ability to avoid critical damage from flooding. Growing water scarcity has been identified as a potential driver for instability and conflict by the academic community [e.g., Grey and Sadoff, 2007, Scheffran and Battaglini, 2011] and the US government [US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, 2011], while flooding continues to pose a systemic risk to human life and social development across the globe. Social vulnerability results when populations and their livelihoods and assets are exposed to hydrological events, such as flooding. Social vulnerability is mediated by resilience --- the ability to recover and adapt after exposure to hydrological events. Social vulnerability can contribute to instability. 7 Concept/Vision Regional Combatant Commanders must understand their area of operations, identifying factors contributing to instability as part of Phase 0 shaping (prevent, prepare) efforts.

8. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Phase II: Hydro-SC for Infrastructure Investment Large flows of aid will affect social stability, power relationships, social and cultural norms. It is crucial to recognize the trade-offs and dynamics between goals of humanitarian assistance, stabilization, and economic development. Consistent assessments of local conditions should be done to remain aware of changing conditions and minimize the possibility of being blindsided by unintended consequences. [Gregory Johnson, Vijaya Ramachandran, and Julie Walz. 2011. “The Commander’s Emergency Response Program in Afghanistan: Refining U.S. Military Capabilities in Stability and In-Conflict Development Activities.”] Water resources projects may be regarded as positive for development, but as destabilizing (especially if implemented without consideration of social and cultural context and consequences) 8 Concept/Vision

9. Phase I: Proposed Improvements to Socio-Cultural Analysis Existing: Environmental Indicators and Warning’s Socio- Cultural Inputs Chronic water stress Freshwater Security Anomalies Population Industry Infant Mortality Political Factors Cutter et al. “A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters.” Global Environmental Change; 18; 2008. Proposed: Adapt and Incorporate Multi- Resolution, Locally-Relevant Definitions Antecedent Conditions Coping Responses – ability to manage within expected levels/variability of stress Preparedness Absorptive Capacity – ability to return to normal conditions after a perturbation Adaptive Resilience – ability to transform to a new configuration to address changing conditions Concept/Vision

10. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Phase Ia: Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural (Hydro-SC) Analysis of Flooding Predicting floods and their human consequences can alert the Army to deploy support for disaster relief, prepare for mass migration or social unrest, and help identify vulnerabilities Time scale: days to months or years Spatial scale: 1 -1000 km Hydrologic processes: Riverine and overland flow, historical and hypothetical meteorology Socio-cultural features: flood vulnerability, adaptive resilience Pakistan Haiti Concept/Vision

11. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Phase Ia: Hydrologic and Socio-cultural Analyses of Flooding Tasks: – Identify demonstration region in AFRICOM and available data – Prepare and model national and sub-national vulnerability and resilience with respect to the stakeholder concerns. – Extend hydrologic tools (LIS, GSSHA, ADH) for basin-scale inundation simulation and improved leveraging of remotely sensed data – Evaluate one-way coupled socio-cultural model for gauged basin – Perform analysis for AFRICOM demonstration site Products: – Dynamic flood prediction mapping at basin and sub-basin scale, including vulnerability and resilience – Dynamic mapping capability showing water-induced vulnerability indices both as a database of images and available from a web service – Initial analysis of flood response, mass migration potential Concept/Vision

12. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center The Niger River Basin Phase Ib: Hydro-SC Analyses for Cross-border Water Resources Changes in use or availability of cross- border water resources can create instability. Examples include dam construction and changes to irrigation infrastructure. Optimize resource allocation. Time scale: months to years Spatial scale: 1 -1000 km Hydrologic processes: Riverine and overland flow, soil moisture and groundwater flow, historical and scenario-based meteorology Socio-cultural processes: Population change, geopolitical, economic development & agriculture, displacement, educational attainment, trade impacts. Concept/Vision

13. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Phase Ib: Hydro-SC Analysis for Cross-Border Water Resources Tasks: – Identify a trans-national river basin in AFRICOM for demonstration and identify available hydrological, socio-cultural, and economic data, and potential changes to hydraulic infrastructure – Apply socio-cultural models (e.g., population forecasting, migration, land-use evolution, political, economic) for hydrological scenario-driven analysis (using remotely available data) – Extend hydrological tools for simulation of basin-to-local scale hydrology (remotely sensed data and additional processes) – Perform situated evaluation and analysis for AFRICOM site Products: – Dynamic, web-portal mapping capability for: Hydrological prediction at basin and sub-basin scale Water-induced vulnerability indices at fidelity of a village, or small municipality Concept/Vision

14. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Water resources in Afghanistan and Iraq Phase II: Hydro-SC Analyses for Infrastructure Investment The Army spends billions of dollars on capacity building and infrastructure improvements through both direct contracts and the Commander’s Emergency Response Program (CERP). Many of these projects are water resources projects. Army engineers and planners must consider potentially destabilizing effects of local changes in water infrastructure and must weigh social and cultural factors in choosing alternative designs Time scale: months to years Spatial scale: 0.1 -100 km Hydrologic processes: Riverine/canal and overland flow, soil moisture, groundwater, current meteorology Socio-cultural features: Village-scale social and cultural processes, local economic development & agriculture. Concept/Vision

15. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Phase II: Hydro-SC Analysis for Infrastructure Investment Tasks: – Improve explicit support in models for water supply and scarcity-driven dynamics (both socio-cultural and hydrologic) – Extend socio-cultural models to support scenario-driven planning analysis – Extend watershed to local scale hydrologic models to leverage remotely sensed data and basin-scale simulation – Bi-directional coupling (feedback from SC to Hydro) – Initial scenario evaluation and analysis for AFRICOM site Products: – Decision support toolbox with Hydro-SC modeling and analysis at the watershed (and smaller) scale – Water resources + socio-cultural input to alternatives comparison – Available on reimbursable basis or through reachback Concept/Vision

16. Purpose: Improve capability to understand and forecast risks to national security as a result of hydrologically-related events. Anticipate social consequences that may increase conflict or provide room to maneuver for extremist organizations Leverage USACE’s hydrologic and socio-cultural analysis capabilities to anticipate and safeguard against water security related issues, providing information for decision support in areas of potential conflict. Deliver usable capabilities to COCOM and other USG planners. Products: Next generation hydrology models that can: Identify inundated areas in days. Execute over large domains with locally tailored physics and resolution. Next generation socio-cultural models that can:. Incorporate non-U.S. social dynamics and processes. Integrate diverse, non-standard demographic data. Provide locally relevant predictions of vulnerability and resilience Coupled hydrology & social-cultural models that can: Identify groups significantly impacted by hydrological scenarios. Identify hydrological consequences of social and cultural change. Explore complex, adaptive interactions between water and society. Payoff: Quicker response, more complete representation for disaster relief. Ability to forecast changes in water supply / demand that allows the Army, COCOMs and intelligence agencies to include these factors in security policies and strategies. Improved ability to prioritize detailed analyses and contingency planning for water-security crises and resource allocation, based on social and cultural impacts. Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural Analyses for Water Security Schedule & Cost MILESTONESFY13FY14FY15FY16 Hydro-SC of flooding Hydro-SC of cross-border water resources Hydro-SC for water infrastructure AT400.53.54.0 25 35 Status: New 35 Total: $12.0M Unclassified / FOUO

17.  What are you trying to do? Improve the US Army and DoD’s ability to understand and forecast threats to national security and regional stability arising from hydrologic events and water resource decisions. Anticipate social consequences of water insecurity that may lead to conflict or provide room to maneuver for violent extremist organizations and/or international criminal organizations. Improve water resources investment decisions for stability and capacity building by accounting for their social and cultural context. Leverage USACE’s hydrologic and socio-cultural analysis capabilities to anticipate and safeguard against water security related issues, providing information for decision support in areas of potential conflict. Deliver usable capabilities to COCOM and other USG planners.  How is it done today, and what are the limits of current practices? Existing available demographic and social data (including imagery) varies by country and requires manual processing to integrate and generate compatible datasets. Hydrologic models have not been integrated with social or cultural models for either linear or interdependent forecasting. Land use and macro-economic models require methods to forecast stakeholder decision-making; current models assume U.S. decision-making processes without consideration of social or cultural differences. We are often unable to obtain hydrology results at the necessary resolution in a timely manner. Data required for existing weather & hydrology models exceed what is commonly available. Water Security

18.  What's new in your approach and why do you think it will be successful? Models that can account for social consequences of hydrologic conditions and events for areas of interest are not available.. We will apply ERDC expertise to translate analyses of risk, vulnerability to appropriate OCONUS social context and address issues of data (e.g., demographic, economic) availability. ERDC expertise can provide hydrologic modeling framework from local to watershed and basin scale with varying levels of fidelity based on the required level of resolution. We can leverage on-going collaboration and expertise to integrate remotely sensed data for simulation in data sparse regions. We will develop techniques to couple hydrology, socio-cultural models for use in decision, planning and assessment tools  Who cares? Regional Combatant Commanders (RCCs) must assess and monitor their areas of operations, engage as a partner with Militaries of other nations, and assure capacity is there in case of natural disaster or instability. These tools will provide a strong foundation on which to build the required Theater Campaign Plans. – Flooding analyses – J2, J5 COCOMs for prioritized contingency planning / planning disaster relief, AGC/UROC reachback – J2 multi-country plans to combat counter-terrorism, Nile River Basin Authority, Sudan RCCs must also make large financial decisions when executing contracts, often under the Commander’s Emergency Response Program. These tools will allow COCOM engineers and planners to include accurate hydrologic and socio- cultural factors when comparing alternative designs and prioritizing projects. Water Security

19.  If you're successful, what difference will it make? This effort will Provide the ability to identify groups and communities at high risk to changes in hydrologic conditions, and identify potential sources of instability. Bring hydrologic and socio-cultural analysis to bear on key planning activities from disaster relief to the prioritization and allocation of resources in the Commander’s Emergency Response Program (CERP) efforts or US Government infrastructure. Facilitate collaboration among the military, other U.S. government agencies, and partner nations by identifying water security issues and providing a means to exploring outcomes of proposed actions. Facilitate identification and prioritization of water infrastructure projects to meet civil, diplomatic, or military objectives. It will identify water infrastructure projects most appropriate for local, regional, and national consideration with guidelines for prioritization for civil, diplomatic, or military leadership. Water Security

20. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center  What are the risks and payoffs? Risks Inability to transition and generalize CONUS socio-cultural rules to provide analysis in OCONUS settings Inability to perform meaningful hydrologic analyses using only remotely sensed data Payoffs Advance warning about social instabilities arising from an excess or shortage of water Water resources projects that increase the local capacity while not creating unforeseen instabilities Water Security

21. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Success and Transition  What are the midterm and final "exams" to check for success? Midterm Ability to perform one-way analysis of socio-cultural impacts (e.g., social vulnerability) driven by hydrologic conditions like seasonal flooding in a representative OCONUS basin. Final Availability of tools for COCOM planner to explore consequences of water infrastructure project (e.g., new well or levee) on social dynamics in a representative OCONUS region.  What is the proposed transition strategy? PEO/PM Requirement(s) 21

22. FY11FY12FY13FY14FY15FY16 Overall Milestone Chart Major Demonstration Capstone Demonstration Significant Milestone Trade- space analysis Advance Existing Socio-Cultural Models Advance Existing Hydrologic Modeling Capabilities Integrate Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural Analysis Capabilities Modeling Environments and Decision Support Conduct demonstrations and outreach to target customers in DoD Baseline Demonstration Integration Demonstration Capstone Demonstration Spiral 2 Demonstration Baseline evaluation of vulnerability assessment and basin-scale hydrologic modeling Demonstration of flood vulnerability for AFRICOM basin Demonstrate sparse data integration capabilities for trans-national river basin Demonstrate web-based delivery of mapping products Demonstrations and Evaluations Demonstrate water infrastructure scenario analysis capability Demonstrate assessment and planning tool support through reachback Evaluate assessment and planning tools performance for COCOM planning staff Hydro-SC 22 FOUO 21 December 2011

23. FY12 FY13FY14FY15FY16 1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q1Q 1. Advance Existing SC Models 2. Advance Existing Hydrologic Modeling Capabilities 3. Integrate Hydrologic and Socio-Cultural Analysis Capabilities 4. Modeling Environments and Decision Support 5. Conduct demonstrations and outreach to target customers in DoD Legend: Planned Start Planned End Planned Milestone Planned Significant Milestone Schedule SlipActual Start Actual End Actual Milestone Actual Significant Milestone Adapt current models to apply in regions of interest (e.g. AFRICOM), include hydrologic forcing and feedback multi-scale hydrology, integrate remotely sensed products, accelerate model construction in data-sparse environments socio-cultural predictions based on multiple hydrologic forecasts, evolve hydrologic predictions based on population or land-use changes Web-based, dynamic mapping, decision support tools with reduced order models and database mining TR1 Demo E1 Demo 46 5 5 TR2 Demo 5 7 TR3 Demo TR4 Demo 6 7 5 Decision Eval 7 6 7 Detailed Milestone Schedule UNCLASSIFIED 8 Targeted basin demonstration to generic basin capability, one-way coupling to fully coupled, transition to

24. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Team 24 POCOrganizationRole Dr. Mark Jourdan ERDC-CHLHydrologic product scope and design Dr. Matthew Farthing ERDC-CHLMulti-scale hydrologic modeling, model coupling Mr. Tim Perkins ERDC-CERLSocio-cultural dynamics modeling Dr. Lucy Whalley ERDC-CERLSocio-cultural anthropological analyses Mr. John Eylander ERDC-CRRELWeather./climate scenarios Dr. Stacy HowingtonERDC-CHLHydrologic modeling, groundwater/surface water interaction Ms. Amanda HinesERDC-ITLModel integration and tool interfaces TBDDecision support, risk analysis, reduced order modeling

25. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Backup 25

26. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Water Security 26 Purpose Improve capability to understand and forecast risks to national security as a result of hydrologically-related events. Anticipate social consequences that may increase conflict or provide room to maneuver for extremist organizations. Leverage USACE’s hydrologic and socio-cultural analysis capabilities to anticipate and safeguard against water security related issues, providing information for decision support in areas of potential conflict. Deliver usable capabilities to COCOM and other USG planners. Results/Products Funding TargetsPayoff/Transition Quicker response, more complete representation for disaster relief. Ability to forecast changes in water supply / demand that allows the Army, COCOMs and intelligence agencies to include these factors in security policies and strategies. Improved ability to prioritize detailed analyses and contingency planning for water-security crises, based on social and cultural impacts. Funding Type FY12 ($K) FY13 ($K) FY14 ($K) FY15 ($K) 6.20.53.54.0 6.30.0 Total0.53.54.0 Next generation hydrology models that can: Identify inundated areas in days. Execute over very large domains. Next generation land use and macro-economic models that can: Forecast plausible futures at sub-national levels in OCONUS. Incorporate non-U.S. development and planning processes. Integrate diverse, non-standard demographic data. Coupled hydrology & social-cultural models that can: Identify groups significantly impacted by hydrologic scenarios. Identify hydrologic consequences of social and cultural change. Explore complex, adaptive interactions between water and society.

27. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Capability Baseline Capability Effort ObjectiveArmy Goal Current Status T: O: T: O: T: O: T: O: Exit Criteria 27 21 December 2011

28. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Conflict Anticipation Detailed Milestone Schedule 28 TRL or SRL: Milestone Timeline: Activity Timeline: Demo: Experiment: Transition: 3 4

29. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Water Security Quantitative Metrics MeasureCurrent Effort Objective Army Objective TRL or SRL Hydrologic and OCONUS stimuli in socio-cultural models Only CONUS cultural data and no hydrologic forcings Include hydrologic and local- cultural stimuli for at least 4 regions of interest Understand social response to hydrologic events in the cultural context of AFRICOM, EUCOM, PACOM, SOUTHCOM 3 Rapid assessment of weather and hydrologic effects Three weeks for inundation modeling 3-4 days or less for the same product Process and exploit relevant data and provide real-time support to commanders’ situational awareness and understanding 5 Coupling of hydrology and socio-cultural models Not coupled. Any assessment done separately Couple the two capabilities such that either code could be used to drive the other Information synthesis; process, and transform data rapidly into usable knowledge, across a wide range of subjects from military logistics to culture and economics 3 Development and natural disaster impact forecasts Country-level assessment Sub-national (‘county-level’) assessment Integration of water security into Theater Campaign Plans. Improved response for disaster relief 4 Large-scale weather and hydrology One year or more to develop a large- scale capability One month or less to develop a large-scale model Understanding dynamics via remote sensing and predictive modeling 4 29

30. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center FY12 Leveraged Initiatives  MCIA reimbursable work  CREATE *Include both internal and external leveraged programs.

31. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Team 31 NameOrganizationRole GSL, Mobility Systems Branch CTB: Sensor and Platform, TTP evaluation ITL, Computational Analysis Branch Algorithm Development CHL, Field Data Collection BranchCTB: Terrain Attribution CRREL, Terrestrial and Cryospheric Sciences Branch CTB: Weather Impacts, Terrain Attribution *State the need for personnel that is required but not available in ERDC’s current work staff and a plan that will address the issue.

32. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Concept/Vision 32 The goal for this program is to develop an M&S capability for supporting robotics as it pertains to dismounted operations. This would include a computation test bed (CTB) for testing and developing power and mobility algorithms for autonomous navigation, an environment for evaluating TTPs with novel sensors and platforms, and a planning tool for dismounted operations to optimize power, mobility, and sensor effectiveness. Terrain Physics Sensor Physics Geo-Environment Platform Physics Human Dynamics Comp. TestBed Sensor Evaluations Platform Evaluations Robotics TTPs 0000 hrs 1200 hrs Kressler (2006) Mission Planning 6.2 Research  Acquisition Support  Transition Leader / Follower

33. S-FOB FOB SPOD *No Institutionalized Basing Training for Small Unit Leaders *High Dependency on LN support increases Threat *Need to increase airdrop Capability to reduce Convoy resupply *Fuel & Water Transported Multiple times Numerous Generators Ad Hoc Waste Removal Inefficient Water Management Sustainability/Logistics – Transport, Distribute, and Dispose TeCD Unprotected Ammo Supply Point Limited Entry Control Point Protection Indirect Fires Limited Guard Tower Protection Tactical Operations Center and Shelters No Indirect Fire Protection Inefficient Power FOUO Deployable Force Protection Force Protection – Basing TeCD Sustainability/Logistics- Basing TeCD Self-Sustaining Bases Time-Consuming Perimeter Construction COP & PB Ad Hoc Field Latrines 21 December 2011 OV – 1 (Current) Contingency Basing Force Protection – Basing 1a 33

34. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center 34 Detailed Milestone Schedule

35. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center END TEMPLATE 35

36. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Water Security 36 Future ERDC Impacts How, if possible, could this opportunity potentially impact ERDC’s existing programs? Does this program have potential for follow-on work? Leveraged Research AFRICOM Niger River Basin Study. Gambia River Flood Assessment UROC reimbursables CREATE - Cultural Reasoning and Ethnographic Analysis for the Tactical Environment Equipment/FacilitiesTechnical Risks 2. What are the barriers to solving this problem? Existing available demographic and social data (including imagery) varies by country and requires manual processing to integrate and generate compatible datasets. Hydrologic models have not been integrated with social or cultural models for either linear or interdependent forecasting. Land use and macro-economic models require methods to forecast stakeholder decision-making; current models assume U.S. decision-making processes without consideration of social or cultural differences. We are often unable to obtain hydrology results at the necessary resolution in a timely manner. Data required for existing weather & hydrology models exceed what is commonly available. 3. How will you overcome those barriers? Apply cross-cultural water crises and development expertise to develop non-U.S.-based land use and macro-economic models. Create an intelligent automated process to identify flow paths and add appropriate resolution in model preprocessing. Develop large-scale hydrology models linked to AFWA databases with the ability to apply varying levels of fidelity based on the required level of resolution. Develop techniques to couple hydrology, land use and macro-economic models for use in decision, planning and assessment tools.

37. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center In 2004, a Defense Science Board Report recommended that Stability Operations be recognized as a core mission for the US Military. This recommendation was codified in Department of Defense Directive (DODD) 3000.05 Military Support for Stability, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction (SSTR) Operations, which was published in late 2005. 37

38. Conflict Anticipation Issues – Flooding – Infrastructure changes – Drought and climate change Product – Web-based dynamic maps of hydrologic state and social stress served through AGC/UROC – Toolbox for continental-scale to village-scale simulation Customers – Intelligence agencies – COCOM Phase 0 planners Infrastructure Investment Issues – Strategic water resources developments (CERP) – Logistics and investments for disaster relief Product – Decision support toolbox with hydro-sc modeling and analysis at the basin scale – Water resources + socio- cultural input to alternatives comparison – Available on reimbursable basis or through reachback Customers – COCOM engineers (Evans) 38

39. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Joint Doctrine Applies Phasing to Campaign Planning Phase 0 – Shape – Prevent/Prepare. Joint and multinational operations are performed to dissuade or deter potential adversaries and to assure or solidify relationships with friends and allies. They are designed to assure success by shaping perceptions and influencing the behavior of both adversaries and allies, … improving information exchange and intelligence sharing, and providing US forces with peacetime and contingency access. Shape phase activities must adapt to a particular theater environment and may be executed in one theater in order to create effects and/or achieve objectives in another. Current examples of Phase 0: Djibouti, Somalia, Korea During Phase 0, Regional Combatant Commanders use the military element of national power to assess and monitor the area of operations (AO), engage as a partner with Militaries of other nations, and assure capacity is there in case of natural disaster or instability. Due to CENTCOM’s operations, there is much pent-up demand for assistance in most other Regional Combatant Commands.

40. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center West Point Discussions

41. Unclassified/FOUO Engineer Research and Development Center Water Security Baseline 41