1. Research, Certification and Commercialization
Opportunity for FMERA & Princeton University
to Create a World-class Center for
Research, Certification and Commercialization
of SmartDrivingCars by
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Program in Transportation
Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
Princeton University
&
CARTS
Consortium for Autonomous Roadways
Transit Systems
Presented at
Fort Monmouth, NJ
April 22, 2014

2. Research, Certification and Commercialization
Opportunity for &
to Create a World-class Center for
Research, Certification and Commercialization
of SmartDrivingCars by
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Program in Transportation
Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
Princeton University
&
CARTS
Consortium for Autonomous Roadways
Transit Systems
Presented at
Fort Monmouth, NJ
April 22, 2014

3. Important Elements of Quality of Life

4. Quality of Life 101: Important Elements
Environment
Clean air, water, …
Employment
“High Quality” Jobs
Correlated with Crime/Personal Safety
Mobility
Safety, Efficiency, Equity, Comfort, Convenience, …
Main Premise:
Promoting the Adoption of Smart Driving Technology:
Creates “High Quality” Jobs, Improves Personal Safety
Improves Safety, Efficiency, Equity, Comfort, Convenience, …
Improves the Environment

5. Where are We with Mobility?

6. The Automobile’s 1st 125 Years (1886-2011)
Benz patent st Automobile
Benz Circa 2011
Delivered: Enormous Personal Freedom & Mobility
But…Safe Operation Requires Continuous Vigilance

7. We Love the Freedom & Mobility
But…Continuous Vigilance is an unrealistic requirement for drivers

8. Highway Sign-A-Long Buttercup Edition http://orfe. princeton

9. Txtng while driving is out of control…

10. TravelTainment Industry Wants Everyone’sAttention

11. In In 717 out of 723 accidents ((99%)
In In 717 out of 723 accidents ((99%)
“In 717 out of 723 crashes (99%), a driver behavioral error caused or contributed to the crash”

12. Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2012

13. But… Not Likely to be Effective
Response is Laudable
Kirkland, WA
April 3: US DOT Launches First-Ever National Distracted Driving Enforcement and Advertising Campaign 
But… Not Likely to be Effective

14. We really Need to get to

15. What About Automation?

16. (air bags, seat belts, crash worthiness, …)
Up to today:
Primarily concerned with safety standards associated with Crash Mitigation
(air bags, seat belts, crash worthiness, …)
Click image to view video

17. Even though Safety Doesn’t Sell, Some Automakers are Leading the Way

18. Where are we Now with Automated Vehicles?
Tesla Car Transporter
Rio Tinto Automated Truck
Rio Tinto Automated Train
Tampa Airport 1st APM 1971
Automated Guided Vehicles
Copenhagen Metro
Elevator
Mercedes Intelligent Drive
Rivium >
Milton Keynes, UK
CityMobil2
Heathrow PodCar
Aichi, Japan, 2005 Expo
Volvo Truck

19. “Level 2- Combined Automation wit Constant Vigilance ”
Where Are We Now?
Available in ShowRooms for Consumers
“Level 2- Combined Automation wit Constant Vigilance ”

20. Active Lane-Keeping Assist (braking not steering  )
Click images to view videos
BAS-Plus
Active Lane-Keeping Assist (braking not steering  )
Intelligent Drive (active steering  )
Volvo Truck Emergency braking

21. Enhancements to Driver Asst. Package
History and Development of DISTRONIC: Price reduction, intelligent packaging and availability cross-carline
MY 2000
MY Current
MY Future
DISTRONIC PLUS
Autonomous Braking Intervention
In “Driver Assistance Package” with Blind Spot Assist/Lane Keeping Assist $2,950
Available Cross-Carline on almost every model
Enhancements to Driver Asst. Package
Steering Assist
BAS with Cross-Traffic Assist
PRE-SAFE Brake with Pedestrian Detection
PRE-SAFE PLUS – protection during rear collisions
In “Driver Assistance Package” with Blind Spot Assist/Lane Keeping Assist +$2,800
Only available on S/E
Introduce DISTRONIC
Adaptive Cruise Control
In package for +$3,700
Only available on S/CL

22. Alain’s Car Insurance on ‘14 S-Class
Annual Comprehensive: $2,000/yr (I walk to work)
Assume:
10% Profit ($200)
10% Operating Costs ($200)
80% Expected Liability Exposure ($1,600)
“997 package has to reduce my Expected Liability Exposure by 50%
“997 package has to reduce my Expected Liability Exposure by 50% ($800)

23. DOT HS 810 767 Pre-Crash Scenario Typology for Crash Avoidance Research
More on Google: Levandowski Presentation

24. Could “Pass-through” Finance Mercedes Intelligent Drive??
(Available in ‘14 S-Class)
May well Deliver 2/3rds the safety of Google Car
$475 Pass-through becomes: $320
$20/yr for Flo or the Gecko
$300/yr to Mercedes
Therefore: I get Intelligent Drive for Free (thank you Google) !! Plus:
Prob. of my car killing me is reduced factor: 2/3*.81= 0.54 (half)
Prob. of my car injuring me is reduced factor: 2/3*.65= 0.44
I “Save” my expected “deductible self-insurance”: $247/yr
I have more Comfort
I have more Convenience
I have “Anxiety” relief
What a great Business Case! I’m a Buyer!

25. With Mercedes the Market Leader in “Level 2-” and an incremental price tag that can be absorbed by a Price Leading Insurance Company, then other automakers will be enticed to follow which should lead to:
Viral adoption by the car buying public
“Moore’s Law type of price/performance improvement
Market-driven Transition to “Level 2” and “Level 3” at same or even lower price structure
Opportunity for After-market retrofit allows for Viral Adoption comparable to that enjoyed by Turn-by-Turn Navigation

26. Why New Jersey? Observation: New Jersey is the home of NAHQ of:
Mercedes, BMW & Subaru
Action Item:
Create an environment that is conducive for these companies (and others) to successfully
enhance, test and accelerate the adoption
of SmartDrivingCars

27. What About Buses?

28. Use Autonomous Collision Avoidance Technology to Address a BIG CURRENT Transit Problem

29. Good News! Travel by Bus is getting safer!

30. Good News! Injuries have been trending down!

31. Terrible News! Claims are going through the roof!

32. Casualty and Liability Claims are a Huge Drain on the Industry
For the 10 year period , more than $4.1 Billion was spent on casualty and liability claims
For many self-insured transit agencies these expenses are direct “out-of-pocket”
Large reserves for claims must be budgeted
Claims experience also is reflected in insurance premiums
There are gaps in data reporting

33. 2011 Nationwide Bus Casualty and Liability Expense
2011 Nationwide
Bus Casualty and Liability Expense
Source FTA NTD
Casualty and Liability Amount
Vehicle-related
$483,076,010.
Total Buses
59,871
Sub-Total Casualty and Liability Amount Per Bus
$8,069/Bus/Year

34. The Cost of Installing an Active Collision Avoidance System on a Bus Could be Recovered in as Little as One Year Through Reductions in Casualty and Liability Claims

35. Why New Jersey?
Observation: In 2 Years, NJ Transit will initiate a new Bus Replacement Cycle (That will extend for about 15 years)
Action Item:
Ensure that the Procurement Specifications include “Level 2” SmartDriving Technologies

36. Federal Transit Administration
The Initial Project:
Princeton University (with American Public Transit Association (APTA), Greater Cleveland Transit, and insurance pools from WA, CA, OH & VA)
Pending $5M Grant from
Federal Transit Administration
Focused on
Research, Certification and Commercialization of
SmartDriving Technology to Buses

37. Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
Extending its vehicle safety standards from Crash Mitigation to Crash Avoidance with Aim at Full Self-Driving Automation
Level 0 (No automation)
The human is in complete and sole control of safety-critical functions (brake, throttle, steering) at all times.
Level 1 (Function-specific automation)
The human has complete authority, but cedes limited control of certain functions to the vehicle in certain normal driving or crash imminent situations. Example: electronic stability control 
Level 2 (Combined function automation)
Automation of at least two control functions designed to work in harmony (e.g., adaptive cruise control and lane centering) in certain driving situations.
Enables hands-off-wheel and foot-off-pedal operation.
Driver still responsible for monitoring and safe operation and expected to be available at all times to resume control of the vehicle. Example: adaptive cruise control in conjunction with lane centering
Level 3 (Limited self-driving)
Vehicle controls all safety functions under certain traffic and environmental conditions.
Human can cede monitoring authority to vehicle, which must alert driver if conditions require transition to driver control.
Driver expected to be available for occasional control. Example: Google car
Level 4 (Full self-driving automation)
Vehicle controls all safety functions and monitors conditions for the entire trip.
The human provides destination or navigation input but is not expected to be available for control during the trip. Vehicle may operate while unoccupied.
Responsibility for safe operation rests solely on the automated system

38. Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
What the Levels Deliver:
Levels 1 -> 3: Increased Safety, Comfort & Convenience
Level 4 (Driverless Opportunity) : Efficiency, Equity
Revolutionizes “Mass Transit” by enabling the provision of mobility without incurring a Labor Cost

39. Where Are We Committed to Go?
“Level 4 Driverless in Mixed Environment ”
Google has stated* that by 2018 Google will make available to the public “Level 4” technology in a mixed environment
*Anthony Levandowski reaffirmed last Stanford TRB Workshop Sergie Brin’s statement last year.

40. Why Fort Monmouth?
Observation: Ft Monmouth may well be one of the most hospitable sites for Google, and others) to implement their intention.

41. Near-term Opportunity for a Substantive Extension of Autonomous Transit
Specific: General Mobility for Fort Monmouth Redevelopment
Currently: Decommissioned Ft. Monmouth is vacant .
Ft. Monmouth Economic Revitalization Authority (FMERA) is redeveloping the 3 sq. mile “city”
Focus is on attracting high-tech industry
The “Fort” needs a mobility system.
FMERA is receptive to incorporating an innovative mobility system
Because it is being redeveloped as a “new town” it can accommodate itself to be an ideal site for testing more advanced driverless systems.

42. Why New Jersey?
Observation: “Level 4” may well be upon us in less than 5 years and our planning, operational and maintenance entities are largely unaware
Action Item: Ensure that NJTPA, DVRPC, PANYNJ, DRPA, NJTP, NJDoT, NJTransit, etc. are all aligned to the Opportunities and Challenges associated with the rapid evolution of these technologies

43. The Ask:
Observation: “Level 4” may well be upon us in less than 5 years and our planning, operational and maintenance entities are largely unaware
Action Item: Ensure that NJTPA, DVRPC, PANYNJ, DRPA, NJTP, NJDoT, NJTransit, etc. are all aligned to the Opportunities and Challenges associated with the rapid evolution of these technologies

44. The Ask: FMERA & Princeton University
Join to Create a World-class Center for
Research, Certification and Commercialization
of SmartDrivingCars

45. FMERA & Princeton University The McAfee Center and The Fort
The Team
The “Owners”
FMERA & Princeton University
The “Coaching Staff”
CARTS
Consortium for Autonomous Roadways & Transit Systems
The “Players”
Automakers
Suppliers
Facilitators
Insurance
Public Sector
Mercedes Benz
Continental
Bertram Capital
NJ Manufacturers
NJ DoT
BMW
Bosch
Verizon
Ins. Inst. for Hwy Safety
NJ Transit
Subaru
Delphi
AT&T
State Farm
PA NYNJ
Volvo
Texas Instrument
Google
Progressive
NJTPA
Ford
autonomouStuff
VisLab
Munich Re
FHWA
The “Venue”
The McAfee Center and The Fort

46. Research, Certification and Commercialization
Opportunity for FMERA & Princeton University
to Create a World-class Center for
Research, Certification and Commercialization
of SmartDrivingCars by
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Program in Transportation
Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
Princeton University
&
CARTS
Consortium for Autonomous Roadways
Transit Systems
Presented at
Fort Monmouth, NJ
April 22, 2014

47. Discussion!
Thank You

48. “Level 3 Semi Self-Driving Automation”
Where Are We Now? R&D
“Level 3 Semi Self-Driving Automation”

49. Has drive ~ 500,000 miles with “Level 3: Limited Self-Driving Automation”
But…Hardware too expensive and Reliance on 3D Google Maps is “non-elegant”

50. Click image to view video
Most impressive self-driving car video to date (7/31/13)
(See driverless finish at end of video)

51. And Today… Masdar & Heathrow are operational Video
> 1M Driverless VMT
Zero accidents

52. Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
Extending its vehicle safety standards from Crash Mitigation to Crash Avoidance with Aim at Full Self-Driving Automation
Level 0 (No automation)
The human is in complete and sole control of safety-critical functions (brake, throttle, steering) at all times.
Level 1 (Function-specific automation)
The human has complete authority, but cedes limited control of certain functions to the vehicle in certain normal driving or crash imminent situations. Example: electronic stability control 
Level 2 (Combined function automation)
Automation of at least two control functions designed to work in harmony (e.g., adaptive cruise control and lane centering) in certain driving situations.
Enables hands-off-wheel and foot-off-pedal operation.
Driver still responsible for monitoring and safe operation and expected to be available at all times to resume control of the vehicle. Example: adaptive cruise control in conjunction with lane centering
Level 3 (Limited self-driving)
Vehicle controls all safety functions under certain traffic and environmental conditions.
Human can cede monitoring authority to vehicle, which must alert driver if conditions require transition to driver control.
Driver expected to be available for occasional control. Example: Google car
Level 4 (Full self-driving automation)
Vehicle controls all safety functions and monitors conditions for the entire trip.
The human provides destination or navigation input but is not expected to be available for control during the trip. Vehicle may operate while unoccupied.
Responsibility for safe operation rests solely on the automated system

53. Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
What the Levels Deliver:
Levels 1 -> 3: Increased Safety, Comfort & Convenience
Level 4 (Driverless Opportunity) : Efficiency, Equity
Revolutionizes “Mass Transit” by enabling the provision of mobility without incurring a Labor Cost

54. “Level 4 Full Self-Driving Automation”
Where Are We Now?
Operational in Exclusive Environments
“Level 4 Full Self-Driving Automation”

55. Automated People Movers
APM
Automated People Movers
Now exist in essentially every Major Airport
and a growing number of Driverless Metros
Beijing
Milan
Paris

56. Remains a critical mobility system & expansion being planned
Personal Rapid Transit: Morgantown ( )
Today…
Remains a critical mobility system & expansion being planned
> 25M Driverless VMT
Zero serious accidents

57. Autonomous Buses at La Rochelle & CityMobile2 (CyberCars/Cybus/INRIA)
Simple virtual non-exclusive roadway
Virtual vehicle-based longitudinal (collision avoidance) and lateral (lane keeping) systems
This is actually “Level 4 Full Self-Driving Automation”
Very Slow Speed (~ 10 mph); “Limited Pedestrian Environment”

58. Driverless Trucks in Australian & Chilean Mines